Sports Central Message Boards

Sports Central Message Boards (https://www.sports-central.org/community/boards/index.php)
-   Politics & Religion (https://www.sports-central.org/community/boards/forumdisplay.php?f=31)
-   -   2008 Election Watch (https://www.sports-central.org/community/boards/showthread.php?t=20044)

philabramoff 06-19-2008 06:33 PM

2008 Election Watch
 
Now that the candidates have been set, time for an Election Watch
Thread. News, polls, commentary on the election until election day.

6/19/08 President Elect showed Map as Obama 285 McCain 253
Also, RCP showed Map as Obama 284 McCain 254. With toss-ups,
it was Obama 238 McCain 163 toss-up 137.

I was surprised by a couple of things...

Obama and McCain were solid in some states expected to be...
but...McCain only "leaning" in Texas and Montana ?? Obama only
"leaning" in California ?????

Michigan and Indiana are TOSS-UPS???

Demographic shifts again.

For the historians among us, take a look at the 2004 Electoral Map,
and then compare to the 1976 Map. The Red/Blue colors are almost
completely reversed!!

buckeyefan78 06-19-2008 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philabramoff (Post 282283)
Now that the candidates have been set, time for an Election Watch
Thread. News, polls, commentary on the election until election day.

6/19/08 President Elect showed Map as Obama 285 McCain 253
Also, RCP showed Map as Obama 284 McCain 254. With toss-ups,
it was Obama 238 McCain 163 toss-up 137.

I was surprised by a couple of things...

Obama and McCain were solid in some states expected to be...
but...McCain only "leaning" in Texas and Montana ?? Obama only
"leaning" in California ?????

Michigan and Indiana are TOSS-UPS???

Demographic shifts again.

For the historians among us, take a look at the 2004 Electoral Map,
and then compare to the 1976 Map. The Red/Blue colors are almost
completely reversed!!

Some of this stuff is made up by the media IMO. Demographic shifts are of little importance right now considering how the last election...even two...fell right in line for what we've seen since Goldwater voted against the Civil Rights Act.

I have it McCain 260 Obama 239 right now based on the locks.

philabramoff 06-26-2008 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by buckeyefan78 (Post 282285)
I have it McCain 260 Obama 239 right now based on the locks.

Personally, I think that the key to this election, as it has been the
last two or three, is which candidate will have the stronger
"Get Out the Vote" campaign.

Obama has a lot of people energized, so I can see a big surprise in the
Fall, and a possible thuming because of that. On the other hand, a lot
of people may get their butts into the voting booths because they are
specifically AFRAID of an Obama presidency (as is the case with me).

philabramoff 07-01-2008 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by buckeyefan78 (Post 282285)
I have it McCain 260 Obama 239 right now based on the locks.

Buck...do you have a reference on this?

(not to criticize...I'm just curious about these polls)

buckeyefan78 07-01-2008 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philabramoff (Post 282706)
Buck...do you have a reference on this?

(not to criticize...I'm just curious about these polls)

LOL...that's my personal electoral map chart. I have it 260 to 239 based on my own research/life experience/whatever.

If I'm remembering my swings off the top of my head correctly... I have Wisconsin, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire.

philabramoff 07-03-2008 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by buckeyefan78 (Post 282721)
If I'm remembering my swings off the top of my head correctly... I have Wisconsin, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire.

What about Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.

Those will be the deciders.

CKFresh 07-03-2008 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philabramoff (Post 282793)
What about Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.

Those will be the deciders.

Obama loses Florida (latino polulation), but wins Ohio and Pennsylvania.

philabramoff 07-07-2008 06:14 PM

Catman...who wins Iowa??

buckeyefan78 07-07-2008 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philabramoff (Post 282793)
What about Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.

Those will be the deciders.

Ohio and Florida aren't swings. They are clearly McCain. Obama will still win PA.

CKFresh 07-07-2008 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by buckeyefan78 (Post 282927)
Ohio and Florida aren't swings. They are clearly McCain. Obama will still win PA.

The latest poll has Obama up by 2 points in Ohio. As little as a month ago he was up 8 points in Ohio.

What makes you think it is "clearly McCain?"

buckeyefan78 07-07-2008 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CKFresh (Post 282944)
The latest poll has Obama up by 2 points in Ohio. As little as a month ago he was up 8 points in Ohio.

What makes you think it is "clearly McCain?"

Demographic shifts and old constants are working against Obama in the Buckeye state.

He lost the "white Catholic" vote to Clinton in Ohio by a score of 67% to 33%. "White Catholics" are the southern and eastern European immigrants who worked in the steel mills of Youngstown and Cleveland, the rubber factories of Akron and the glass plants of Toledo. He can NEVER recover those people. They voted based on race...trust me...speaking from personal experience. Those folks are all older and still relate RACE to ECONOMICS when it comes to the political practices of how folks were paid/hired/fired in the old days. They are nearly the same blue collar Dems that scorched him in WV.

Feel good though CK. Here's a case where I'm supplying bonafide proof of racism against Obama.

:D

As far as the black vote goes...he'll get 95% of whoever shows up but it won't be enough. Blacks make up about 12% of the population in Ohio but are extremely poor and isolated. Those folks don't vote and are "discouraged" to do so even if they try (wink wink). 99% of the black population live in a 15 mile radius from the downtowns of the state's 8 largest cities (Columbus, Cleveland, Cincy, Toledo, Akron, Dayton, Youngstown, Canton). Mahoning County (Youngstown) is 20% black but Obama lost by 10 points here. That's the key. Obama actually has a better chance of winning a few TRUE southern states because the black population down there isn't as impoverished in comparison to its white counterparts and it's actually dispersed geographically.

The problems remain the same here when it comes to Dems:

- a declining urban population throughout the state
- very low % of college educated folks (which usually help Dems but not Obama)
- decline of unions/manufacturing

Bottom line is...Ohio is a southern state...culturally speaking. Old folks like myself consider anything south of Canton to be the southern U.S. No Yankee Dem has won Ohio since the Civil Rights Movement and Goldwater's turn against those acts.

2004 Kerry
1988 Dukakis
1984 Mondale
1972 McGovern
1968 Humphrey

All losers. The only other states that share this record are the Confederates with the exception of 1968 when Humphrey won Texas because Wallace and Nixon split the conservative/well...let's just call it the racist vote.

:D

CKFresh 07-07-2008 08:36 PM

Wow, pretty convincing stuff.

To play devil's advocate (and perhaps hopeless optimism on my part) let me disagree on a few points.

Racism:

I agree that the "blue collar" whites in Ohio are much like those in WV. However, unions are powerful an influential. I know several racist union workers (some in Kentucky) who definitely have a problem voting for a black man. However, due to the union leadership's support for Obama, they are going to begrudgingly vote for Obama, "in the interests of the union."

Will the Union/Blue collar vote be has high as if it were Hillary, probably not, but it will still vote overwhelmingly Democrat.

In addition, yes, the conditions aren't set for high turnout among the black community. But I have to imagine that this will be the most motivated the black community has ever been (electorally speaking).

I'd be willing to bet they turn out in record numbers (across the country). I would even bet a larger percentage of black folks vote in this election that white folks.

And the other group of voters I think you are neglecting to consider are young voters. Yes, historically speaking, the youth vote is highly unreliable. But Ohio has a large number of colleges and college student population. This group will be highly motivated this year. The fear of a failing economy when they graduate, more foreign conflict, and education costs on the rise are all on the minds of people my age (and younger).

I am currently working with the Obama campaign on registering youth/college voters. I did the same for Kerry. The difference is stagering. I would say the enthusiam and commitment to Barack Obama is 10 times that of John Kerry among these voters.

As I mentioned, the "black vote" and "youth vote" have been historically unreliable, but I think this is one area where Barack Obama is in fact unique.

It won't be easy, but I think Obama has the advantage in Ohio.

buckeyefan78 07-07-2008 08:44 PM

I agree that the "blue collar" whites in Ohio are much like those in WV. However, unions are powerful an influential. I know several racist union workers (some in Kentucky) who definitely have a problem voting for a black man. However, due to the union leadership's support for Obama, they are going to begrudgingly vote for Obama, "in the interests of the union."


It's going to be close and on a personal note...I've enjoyed watching a few racists I know struggle with this scenario. Dems = pro-labor but Obama's black...what do I do?

:lol:

I think they stay home more or go McCain when it comes down to it but you've hit the nail on the head where the weakness is: labor

In addition, yes, the conditions aren't set for high turnout among the black community. But I have to imagine that this will be the most motivated the black community has ever been (electorally speaking).

I'd be willing to bet they turn out in record numbers (across the country). I would even bet a larger percentage of black folks vote in this election that white folks.


Even motivated people can't vote when the system is designed to oppress them. Again, with an isolated poor black population in Ohio the GOP will do its best to discredit and fight the black vote based on rules and regulations. No way on blacks voting more than whites. That would be a miracle. And remember, I don't subscribe to Obama-is-Jesus.

:P

And the other group of voters I think you are neglecting to consider are young voters. Yes, historically speaking, the youth vote is highly unreliable. But Ohio has a large number of colleges and college student population. This group will be highly motivated this year. The fear of a failing economy when they graduate, more foreign conflict, and education costs on the rise are all on the minds of people my age (and younger).

Young people still don't vote even though they spiked about 13% nationally last election. Plus our state is overwhelmingly old. Face it CK, I'm the face of Ohio.

:D

The young people who will vote for Obama have no interest in Ohio cuz they won't be here once that sheepskin hits their hands.

CKFresh 07-07-2008 08:57 PM

Quote:


It's going to be close and on a personal note...I've enjoyed watching a few racists I know struggle with this scenario. Dems = pro-labor but Obama's black...what do I do?

:lol:

I think they stay home more or go McCain when it comes down to it but you've hit the nail on the head where the weakness is: labor
Perhaps his (presumably white) running mate can help counter that problem?

Say it's Jim Webb... The campaign will have Webb make speaches at Unions and in those areas.

At least then some of those people could put a white face to their vote... :rolleyes:

Quote:

Even motivated people can't vote when the system is designed to oppress them. Again, with an isolated poor black population in Ohio the GOP will do its best to discredit and fight the black vote based on rules and regulations. No way on blacks voting more than whites. That would be a miracle. And remember, I don't subscribe to Obama-is-Jesus.
Good point, but many in the black community DO subscribe to the Obama-is-Jesus belief (not literally of course).

You're right that the cards are stacked against them, but I've seen it first hand.

I worked for a man named David Pepper who was running for Mayor of Cincinnati. His major competition was Mark Mallory. Pepper was leading in every poll up until the day of election. When the results came in, we were shocked. The black community out voted the white.

Granted, this is a smaller scale and an "urban only" election, but it was still very telling in terms of what a black candidate can do for black voter turnout.

Quote:

Young people still don't vote even though they spiked about 13% nationally last election. Plus our state is overwhelmingly old. Face it CK, I'm the face of Ohio.
True, but I believe that I read somewhere that Ohio, in terms of %, is one of the top 5 states in terms of student population. That's a lot of potential voters.

If you are the face of Ohio, then why the hell hasn't the revolution begun? :lol:

I'm assuming you meant in terms of demographics, not ideology.... :P

Quote:

The young people who will vote for Obama have no interest in Ohio cuz they won't be here once that sheepskin hits their hands.
Sad but true.

Still, it doesn't matter if they have interest in Ohio - a vote is still a vote... Well, sometimes ;)

buckeyefan78 07-08-2008 10:16 AM

The Student Population:

Doesn't fly here. Obama beat Clinton in 5 out of 88 counties. He took Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Franklin (Columbus), Delaware (C-Bus suburb) Hamilton (Cincinnati) and Montgomery (Dayton).

Athens-OU: 53-45 Clinton
Miami-Miami: 57-41 Clinton
Seneca-BGSU: 58-39
Portage-Kent: 60-38

See, here ya have 4 rural universities not located within a city center (like CSU, Akron, YSU) and Obama got his doors blown off.

The election wasn't during finals either.

He lost Mahoning 64-34 with a large urban university (YSU) and a large overall black population (nearly 20%). And remember, those two stats are mutually exclusive. YSU, Akron, CSU all have roughly 5%-8% black student population despite being in the center of inner cities.

On this one...I don't see where the votes are gonna come from.

Rebuttal on said stats?


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:58 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions Inc.