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JBDTD 09-21-2003 05:02 PM

Something to ponder....
Here are the remaining schedules of the top 17 (coaches poll) teams with basic analysis of each. At the end I give you something to ponder.

1. Oklahoma (4-0)

October 4 at Iowa State
October 11 at No. 13 Texas
October 18 Missouri
October 25 at Colorado
November 1 Oklahoma State
November 8 No. 20 Texas A&M
November 15 Baylor
November 22 at Texas Tech

I expet them to lose to someone, but would not be suprised if 13-0

2. Miami (4-0)

October 2 West Virginia
October 11 at No. 9 Florida State
October 18 Temple
November 1 at No. 8 Virginia Tech
November 8 No. 12 Tennessee
November 15 Syracuse
November 22 Rutgers
November 29 at No. 11 Pittsburgh

I think they will lose at least one game to either FSU, VT, Tenn, or Pitt.

3. USC (3-0)

September 27 at California
October 4 at No. 16 Arizona State
October 11 Stanford
October 18 at No. 23 Notre Dame
October 25 at No. 21 Washington
November 1 No. 25 Washington State
November 15 at Arizona
November 22 UCLA
December 6 Oregon State

I really dont think it is possible for them to run the table with this schedule.

4. Ohio State (4-0)

September 27 Northwestern
October 11 at Wisconsin
October 18 No. 14 Iowa
October 25 at Indiana
November 1 at Penn State
November 8 Michigan State
November 15 Purdue
November 22 at No. 5 Michigan

Perhaps the most feasible undefeated out of the top 5 based on schedule, but it wont happen.

5. Virginia Tech (3-0)

September 27 Connecticut
October 4 at Rutgers
October 11 Syracuse
October 22 at West Virginia
November 1 No. 2 Miami
November 8 at No. 11 Pittsburgh
November 15 at Temple
November 22 Boston College
November 29 at Virginia

I dont see them beating both miami and pittsburgh back to back.

6. FSU (4-0)

September 27 at Duke 7:00 PM ET -
October 11 No. 2 Miami TBA -
October 18 at Virginia TBA -
October 25 Wake Forest TBA -
November 1 at No. 23 Notre Dame 2:30 PM ET -
November 8 at Clemson TBA -
November 15 N.C. State TBA -
November 29 at No. 17 Florida 3:30 PM ET -

Will have at least 2 losses out of the 4 games against Miami, ND, NC St, and Florida. Drop out of top 15

7. LSU (4-0)

September 27 at Mississippi St. 9:00 PM ET -
October 11 No. 17 Florida 8:00 PM ET -
October 18 at South Carolina TBA -
October 25 Auburn 7:45 PM ET -
November 1 Louisiana Tech 8:00 PM ET -
November 15 at Alabama TBA -
November 22 at Mississippi 2:00 PM ET -
November 28 No. 18 Arkansas 2:30 PM ET -

Good team, but will lose at least one of these and will lose to tenn in SEC champ game.

8. Tennessee (3-0)

September 27 South Carolina 7:45 PM ET -
October 4 at Auburn TBA -
October 11 No. 7 Georgia TBA -
October 25 at Alabama TBA -
November 1 Duke 4:00 PM ET -
November 8 at No. 2 Miami TBA -
November 15 Mississippi St. TBA -
November 22 Vanderbilt TBA -
November 29 at Kentucky TBA -

I think they will go (11-2) SEC champs, BCS bid.

9. Iowa (4-0)

September 27 at Michigan State 12:00 PM ET -
October 4 No. 5 Michigan 3:30 PM ET -
October 18 at No. 4 Ohio State 3:30 PM ET -
October 25 Penn State TBA -
November 1 Illinois TBA -
November 8 at Purdue TBA -
November 15 No. 24 Minnesota TBA -
November 22 at Wisconsin TBA -

Will lose 2 out of next 3 games. Finish season out of top 20.

10. Michigan (3-1)

September 27 Indiana 12:00 PM ET -
October 4 at No. 14 Iowa 3:30 PM ET -
October 11 at No. 24 Minnesota TBA -
October 18 Illinois 12:00 PM ET -
October 25 Purdue TBA -
November 1 at Michigan State TBA -
November 15 at Northwestern TBA -
November 22 No. 4 Ohio State 12:00 PM ET -

10-2 season. finish about 8-12th.

11. Nebraska (3-0)

September 25 at Southern Miss 7:30 PM ET -
October 4 Troy State TBA -
October 11 at Missouri TBA -
October 18 No. 20 Texas A&M TBA -
October 25 Iowa State TBA -
November 1 at No. 13 Texas TBA -
November 8 at Kansas TBA -
November 15 No. 6 Kansas State TBA -
November 28 at Colorado 12:00 PM ET -

Last years team will reappear when the schedule actually gets tough. Out of top 20.

12. Georgia (3-1)

October 4 Alabama TBA -
October 11 at No. 12 Tennessee TBA -
October 18 at Vanderbilt 2:00 PM ET -
October 25 UAB 1:00 PM ET -
November 1 at No. 17 Florida TBA -
November 15 Auburn TBA -
November 22 Kentucky TBA -
November 29 at Georgia Tech TBA -

Will lose at least one more, probably 2.

13. Texas (3-1)

September 27 Tulane 7:00 PM ET -
October 4 No. 6 Kansas State TBA -
October 11 No. 1 Oklahoma TBA -
October 18 at Iowa State TBA -
October 25 at Baylor 7:00 PM ET -
November 1 No. 15 Nebraska TBA -
November 8 at Oklahoma State TBA -
November 15 Texas Tech TBA -
November 28 at No. 20 Texas A&M 3:30 PM ET -

Not thier season (again). Could upset OU, but follow it up with a bad loss to Tech or A&M. End up with 3 losses.

14. Arkansas (3-0)

September 27 at Alabama 3:30 PM ET -
October 11 Auburn TBA -
October 18 No. 17 Florida TBA -
October 25 at Mississippi 2:00 PM ET -
November 1 at Kentucky TBA -
November 6 South Carolina 7:30 PM ET -
November 15 New Mexico State 2:00 PM ET -
November 22 Mississippi St. TBA -
November 28 at No. 10 LSU 2:30 PM ET -

Texas game will be highlight of thier season. 3 losses.

15. Oregon (4-0)

September 27 No. 25 Washington State 3:30 PM ET -
October 3 at Utah 10:00 PM ET -
October 11 at No. 16 Arizona State TBA -
October 25 Stanford 3:30 PM ET -
November 1 at No. 21 Washington 10:00 PM ET -
November 8 California 3:30 PM ET -
November 15 at UCLA TBA -
November 22 Oregon State 3:30 PM ET -

good team, tough schedule. Will lose a few of thier tough away games. Hard to run the table with this schedule.

16. K State (4-1)

October 4 at No. 13 Texas TBA -
October 11 at Oklahoma State TBA -
October 18 Colorado TBA -
October 25 Kansas TBA -
November 1 Baylor TBA -
November 8 at Iowa State TBA -
November 15 at No. 15 Nebraska TBA -
November 22 Missouri TBA -

not the team people thought they were. wont crack the top ten, even with a win vs. texas.

17. TCU (3-0)

September 27 at Arizona 10:00 PM ET -
October 4 Army 7:00 PM ET -
October 10 at South Florida 8:00 PM ET -
October 18 UAB 7:00 PM ET -
October 25 at Houston 8:00 PM ET -
November 5 Louisville 7:30 PM ET -
November 15 Cincinnati 3:00 PM ET -
November 20 at Southern Miss 7:30 PM ET -
November 29 at SMU 3:00 PM ET -

OK, OK. So here is the point of this, the longest message ever. TCU is currently ranked 17th. I will not argue the fact that they have a soft schedule, although it was recently released that both Texas and Texas A&M refused to schedule games against TCU this year. I think that with a bit of luck, they can run the table this year. Thier only true tests are going to be against USF, Louisville, and S. Miss. If they continue to win, and go undefeated, they will rise 1.5 places per week (2 some weeks, 1 some weeks) due to the losses of the teams currently ranked ahead of them (see analysis above). With 9 weeks left, that would put them top 5 if they run the table. We all know they wont get that much credit, but 6-8th is realistic if undefeated. When Marshall and Tulane went undefeated they were still ranked in the mid teens. If an undefeated team is ranked in the mid-top 10, in this, a year of controversy over the lack of BCS respect for the mid-majors, I think that they have a legitimate shot, and a right at a BCS bowl. Comments?

buckeyefan78 09-21-2003 06:22 PM

Welcome to the boards...

I don't see TCU getting into the top 10 going undefeated. If Marshall could only get to #13 in their undefeated year, then the Frogs won't now. Marshall is a money team. They have a big time college football mindset in a smaller ( but growing by leaps and bounds as we speak) conference. They've had Leftwich and Moss, two ticket sellers ( cha ching for the NCAA if playing on New Years) and still couldn't get a shot at a big boy due to contrats between the conferences and bowls.

Do they deserve a shot if undefeated? Hmmm...hard for me to say. I know they won't get it. And with the rise of the MAC, I'd began a debate of an undefeated Toledo or one loss Marshall team more deserving of a BCS bowl then the Frogs right now. At the very least, an undefeated Toledo MAC champion deserves more then playing 40 miles north in Detroit in mid December, especially when some 7-5 Big Ten or Big 12 school will play much closer to New Year's and get much more $. That is something I would hope most would agree with.

JBDTD 09-21-2003 06:34 PM

The MAC teams will only pass TCU in rankings if TCU loses. There is a lot of talk in Texas right now of taking Baylor out of Big 12 and replacing them with TCU. TCU has had 3 10 win seasons in the past 4 years. I can see TCU getting a BCS bid to a bowl like the fiesta bowl over any team in the MAC. I dont see how TCU wouldnt be in the top 10 if they go undefeated. They will at least move up one spot per week, and that would put them 8th. The teams ahead of them are all playing each other, causing losers to drop behind an undefeated TCU. Look back at the ranking progressions in 2000. TCU was 8-0 and ranked 10th or 11th when they lost a game they shouldnt have lost. If they had kept winning that year, they would have passed more people and ended up in top 10. Same thing will happen this year (except hopefully not the loss).

Bama_AL 09-21-2003 06:39 PM

Actually a MAC team could pass TCU in the rankings without TCU losing. NIU is currently 3-0 with wins over Maryland and Alabama. They could go undefeated and impress the pollsters more with 12-0 record and two big wins whereas TCU would just be undefeated without any very impressive victories.

buckeyefan78 09-21-2003 06:50 PM

Good points JBTD.

The Frogs came into this year highly ranked and highly touted by the media. I really didn't take into consideration how high they are ranked currently with so many games left ( for the big boys to lose and for them to win as to move up). Proably the highest ranking of a non-BCS team since the inception of the BCS so early in the season if someone could find such a stat. Like you said 8-0 and ranked #10 or #11 in 2000. If they are 8-0 this year, they should exceed that ranking, however it may be close.

But, let us look back at Toledo. Let's say the Rockets go undefeated, which would include a win vs. Pitt, TWO wins vs. Marshall, a win vs Cuse, and throw in a W against N. Illinois( who has eaten up Bama and Maryland) and another W against BGSU ( who beat Purdue, which should start a run of their own soon and who barely lost to my Buckeyes).

Now, wouldn't an undefeated Toledo look MUCH more impressive then an undefeated TCU? The difference is the Rockets didn't get any love in the preseason from the media, which hurts their ranking placement, which ultimately would hurt their chances ( let's face it, there aren't any) of getting to a BCS bowl. TCU may run the table, but if Toledo does in a much stronger conference, they should have a better chance at getting in then the Frogs, but it won't happen due to the poll positioning so early and the love by the media of the Frogs.

It's a fun scenario, however unlikely it may be. Then again JBDTD, between my push for Toledo and your push for TCU, I think we've found two more holes in the glorious BCS and their ways.

JBDTD 09-21-2003 06:57 PM

I wish more people would cheer for the little guys. There are a lot of good small budget programs out there that are making statements for themselves. In TCU's case, its a shame that bigger programs wouldn't give them a shot this year. (TCU's AD recently quoted that he requested games against both A&M and UT this year but was turned down). It is getting better though (next year playing Texas Tech, the following year playing OU). I just wish one of these small programs would go undefeated, get a BCS bid, and win thier bowl game. It would be interesting to see what kind of program could be developed with the money, recruiting, facilities that an undefeated season and a BCS win would bring.

buckeyefan78 09-21-2003 06:59 PM

My fault. N. Ill is undefeated, not Toledo. However it makes no difference. N. Ill with wins vs Maryland, at Bama, at BGSU, at Toledo and at Marshall in the MAC title game is more impressive then the Frogs undefeated, so just plug in the Huskies where I had Rockets in my above thread. And in reality, a one loss MAC team such as Marshall or Toledo still might be more impressive then the Frogs.

dhav8706 09-21-2003 10:17 PM

I think it is possible for a smaller conference school to finish top 10, or even top 5 if they catch the breaks they need. At the beginning of the year I predicted that there would be 0 undefeated teams, and i stand by that prediction. I dont think TCU will run the table, i think they will lose at least when they play at South Florida or at Southern Miss.

KevinBeane 09-22-2003 02:18 AM

Is the "talk" of TCU replacing Bayor coming from any sort of source with power, or is this just sportstalk radio wishful thinking?

TCU, unfortuately, has had mediocre wins against mediocre teams. They'd have more of an argument if they were blowing away their foes, or beating highly-respected BCS schools the way 4 (5, if you count Miami) are, then it'd be different. As it is, I agree with Buckeye. This season, at least, BCS-gypped talk has to start in the MAC.

I OWN THIS 09-22-2003 01:31 PM

I have seen TCU play this year, and they are simply not worthy of being in a BCS game. I know their QB is hurt, but even before he was injured they could barely escape Tulane. Maybe you insert a 12-0 TCU team in the playoffs if Division I had a 16 team playoff system, but they are not impressive enough to be in a BCS game. TCU might beat some of the top 15 teams depending on matchups, but I think most, if not all, of the top 15 teams could handle TCU.


MountaineerDave 09-23-2003 08:45 PM

I think the any given Saturday mantra should be repeated time and again, Joey.

TCU had Tulane completely crushed when Losman pulled them from down a ton to make the game competitive. The Horned Frogs fumbled the ball to the Green Wave on consecutive running plays late in the game.

They seem to have struggled a bit, since, but I didn't actually see the games played, so...

Don't overlook that they battled early but came on to whip Vandy, who doesn't suck as much as is normally the case this year.

I think TCU is a stronger program right now than Marshall sans starting QB, which is to say, TCU could handle K State if Marshall could. And if TCU could handle K State, I would tend to think them capable of taking several other teams in the Top 15.

I remain unconvinced of Tennessee's goodness (they did go some way of proving themselves v Fla, but the Gators looked flat or something... I expected a better game); Nebraska is ripe for the picking, as is Iowa. Despite Oregon's performance this past weekend... take them on the road before I'm a believer...

I like TCU. Think they'll finish undefeated. Figure they'll finish either just outside or just inside the Top 10. And attend the Music City Bowl. Or whichever bowl game pits #1 C-USA v #1 Mtn West.


dhav8706 09-23-2003 10:43 PM

Liberty Bowl is CUSA Champ vs. Mountain West Champ

MountaineerDave 09-24-2003 02:58 PM

Thanks. I knew it was some bowl no one cared about... :)


dhav8706 09-24-2003 03:57 PM

Actually, it's a pretty good bowl. It's #10 in bowl payout, with 1.3 million last sason, and it was the #3 pre-Jan. 1st payout, and this year will likely be 2nd after the Peach bowl moves to January 2nd. It's usually a pretty good game too. Since it became CUSA #1 vs. WAC/Mountain West #1 the margin of victory hasn't been over 20 points.

MountaineerDave 09-24-2003 04:47 PM

When I say no one, I mean the national media, majority of casual fans.

I listened to the Liberty Bowl year before last on the computer at work. U of L v BYU. Good game. Don't remember last year's... TCU-CSU, wasn't it? Either way, for some reason I missed it.

Won't be able to do that this year, with yahoo requiring a fee I refuse to pay to listen to college football this year...


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