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Anthony 11-28-2018 08:49 PM

Anthony's Week 13 NFL Pointspread Picks
Last week: 8-6-1. Season totals: 79-90-7, Pct. .469. Best Bets: 19-15-2, Pct. .556.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.


NEW ORLEANS 28, Dallas 24 (+7 1/2) - The Saints have played two teams whose defenses rank in the top seven, as do the Cowboys, and scored 54 points (27 per game) in those two games, compared with 355 (39.4 per game) in their other nine games. If the Dallas front four can get in Drew Brees' face often enough, they can keep this within the number.


21, N.Y. GIANTS 10 (+4 1/2) - So much for Gaylord Beckham Jr.'s prediction that the Giants would run the table and win the NFC East - and they won't be going up against that horrible Eagles secondary this week. And artificial turf has been no problem for this year's Bears: They're 2-0 both ways on it by a combined 64-25 - a 41-9 soccer-kicking of Buffalo in Week 9 and a win at Detroit on Thanksgiving without Mitch Trubisky, who they may be without again this week.

TENNESSEE 34, N.Y. Jets 14 (+10) - The Jets are 6-15 against the spread on the road since 2016, and 12-22 against the spread on grass since 2011 - and if they fail to capture a turnover in this game, they will become the first team since 1950 not to have done so in six consecutive games.

ATLANTA 24 (+1), Baltimore 13 - Matt Ryan is averaging 316.9 net yards passing per game in his 11 starts. Lamar Jackson is averaging 155.0 net yards passing per game in his two starts (by comparison, the Cardinals, who are last in the league in passing offense, are averaging 155.2 net yards passing per game). The result is obvious.

Indianapolis 23, JACKSONVILLE 0 (+3 1/2) - If Leonard Fournette can learn some grappling skills to go with the mad striking skills he put on display in Buffalo last week, which caused him to be suspended for this game, he will have a promising future in mixed martial arts. Meanwhile, Doug Marrone has thrown a temper tantrum and benched Blake Bortles, who led the Jaguars to the Final Four last year, in favor of Cody Kessler, who is a maiden (he's 0-8 as a starter). The Indianapolis defense/special teams should be available in most fantasy leagues. Claim them and start them this week.

Carolina 31, TAMPA BAY 24 (+3) - With both of their games against the Saints yet to be played, a loss here essentially knocks the Panthers out of playoff contention, making this an absolute must-win for them. But with Carolina being 9-2 straight up and 8-3 against the spread versus Tampa Bay since 2013, they should get that win.

MIAMI 28, Buffalo 14 (+6) - Ryan Tannehill's cover in his return last week made him 10-3-1 against the spread in his last 14 starts dating back to 2016 (he missed the entire 2017 season because of injury) while Buffalo is 37-76 straight up and 48-63-2 against the line since 1995 as a visitor on the grass.

Denver 27, CINCINNATI 7 (+3 1/2) - Not only did the Bengals let Cleveland snap its 25-game road losing streak at their expense, but they lost Andy Dalton for the season due to a thumb injury. After a brutal stretch of six games in which they lost to the Rams, Chiefs, and Texans by 3, 7 and 2 points and upset the Chargers and the Steelers, Denver's visit to the City of Satan should be anything but hellish.

L.A. Rams 45, DETROIT 24 (+9 1/2) - Ever since the M&M Twins, Matt Millen and Marty Mornhinweg, darkened their doorstep in 2001, the Lions are 23-50 in December, the worst December record in the NFL over that span - and if Chase Daniel could put up 23 points against Detroit's defense, imagine how many Jared Goff will put up.

GREEN BAY 35, Arizona 13 (+14) - The Cardinals have not won in Green Bay or Milwaukee (where the Packers held some home games prior to 1995) since 1949, with nine losses by a combined 294-157, and Arizona is 5-20 straight up and 11-14 against the line since 2000 as a visitor in cold weather. The Packers are 4-0-1 straight up at home, the tie coming on September 16 with an Aaron Rodgers who was listed as questionable all week.

HOUSTON 31, Cleveland 20 (+6 1/2) - The Browns snapped a 25-game road losing streak last week. Two in a row? Not feeling it against a Texans team whose saga must be profoundly disturbing to the advocates of the 18-game schedule.

Kansas City 35, OAKLAND 17 (+15) - Pretty hard to go against Fat Boy coming off a bye - he's 16-3 straight up and 13-6 against the spread doing it. And speaking of Fat Boy, he's 24-9 straight up and 21-12 against the spread within the AFC West since joining the division in 2013. The Raiders, meanwhile, have yet to win or cover against a team with a winning record this season, getting outscored 182-77 en route to an 0-6 record both ways. But there is one major red flag: Jon Gruden is 4-1 both ways lifetime against Fat Boy.

NEW ENGLAND 28, Minnesota 13 (+6) - The Patriots have owned the Vikings of late, with four straight wins over them by a combined 113-49, their lone blemish against the spread therein being a 7-point win as a 7 1/2-point favorite in 2002. Then again, just about everybody has owned the Vikings in cold weather for a much longer time: Minnesota is 17-44-1 straight up and 24-35-3 against the line since 1987 as a visitor in cold weather - and this one is in the late time slot, which will make it a de-facto night game: The sun sets in Boston at 4:12 on Sunday and kickoff time is 4:25 - which will make the kickoff-time temperature even colder. Look for Tom Brady to continue his off-the-charts play in December, when he's 58-11 lifetime, in the week's safest investment.

SEATTLE 34, San Francisco 3 (+10) - Nick Mullens could make any defense look like the Legion of Boom, and Seattle has beaten the 49ers nine in a row, covered in seven of them, and has outscored them 206-104. The Seahawks would have to be looking ahead to next Monday night's biggie against Minnesota, also at home, with telescopes in order for this game not to be a blowout.

PITTSBURGH 24, L.A. Chargers 14 (+3 1/2) - What is it about Pittsburgh that there is always such drama there whenever the Steelers lose a game? But there is unlikely to be any drama next week after they take care of business in this cold-weather night game in which the Chargers, who are 1-5 straight up in cold weather since 2015, will be without Melvin Gordon.


PHILADELPHIA 27, Washington 23 (+7) - Only once have the Eagles won by seven or more this season, and they are one of five teams - the other four are the Packers, Cardinals, Raiders and 49ers, who are 10-33-1 among them - who have yet to win two in a row. Carson Wentz, who engineered just the fourth game-winning drive in his career last week, may need to do it in back-to-back games.


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