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Old 11-11-2007, 02:35 PM   #1
buckeyefan78
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Default Week #11 Bowl Prediction Update

Here is how I see the BCS bowls after the games of 11/10/07

Orange Bowl: Clemson (10-3) vs. Cincinnati (10-2)
Sugar Bowl: Kansas (12-1) vs. West Virginia (10-2)
Fiesta Bowl: Hawaii (12-0) vs. Oklahoma (11-2)
Rose Bowl: Michigan (9-3) vs. Arizona State (11-1)

BCS Championship: Oregon (11-1) vs. LSU (12-1)

Big Ten Bowl Games:

Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Arizona State
Capital One Bowl: Ohio State vs. Florida
Outback Bowl: Illinois vs. Georgia
Alamo Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Missouri
Champs Sports: Penn State vs. Virginia Tech
Insight Bowl: Iowa vs. Texas Tech
Motor City Bowl: Michigan State vs. Central Michigan

*Purdue, NW and Indiana are all bowl eligible but will need to take at-large bids from other bowls not under Big Ten contract.

It's a shame that Illinois can't go to the Capital One Bowl over Ohio State but the rules say a team with a better overall record (OSU will finish 10-2 with Illinois at 9-3) can go to the higher-tier bowl and bowl administrators have the discretion to screw 'em over.

Last edited by buckeyefan78; 11-11-2007 at 02:40 PM.
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Old 11-11-2007, 02:55 PM   #2
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Already conceding the Michigan game, buck? :lol: I'm still very confident in that game, unless Hart completely shreds us, which is possible. I still think they will get it done, as bad as OSU looked against Illinois, UM has pretty much played at that level all season.

A win obvioulsy beats Michigan :thumbsup2:, gives us another outright Big Ten title :thumbsup2:, and lands us in the Rose Bowl :thumbsup2: to possibly play the USC Trojans (60% chance,IMO), which would be a very fun game and an nice lead-in to the two year war we have comming up with them. If Oregon loses a game, the winner of OSU-UM would get them, and that prospect is terrifying for either team. Juice Williams is a hell of a player, and Illinois is much improved, but Dixon and the Ducks offense are probably improvements over both. And we already know what Oregon did to UM at the Big House.
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Old 11-11-2007, 03:18 PM   #3
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I picked Illinois to beat us 21-17 (Alex can verify) and had Michigan beating us from Week #7 so might as well keep going.

The loss was Tressel's fault: 100%. The only bums we have for kids are Beanie (with his variety of injuries) and Freeman...who couldn't tackle a dead man already on the ground.

Calling a TO on that 4th and 1 was the dumbest move I've ever seen in my life. Zook took it and went for it. So what we didn't have a return man back...let it go and run the ball?

Urban Meyer may not have a soul (seriously, he could be pure evil) but the man is a helluva coach. Tressel got outcoached by Ron Zook. Disgusting. The refusal to run the ball and the bombs in double coverage by Boeckman (see the Purdue game) show the coaching is letting these kids down.

Having said that I already had a dream about Pasadena last night. :lol: It was more of a flashback to the 1990 game (Bo's last) when USC beat Michigan. I was there and at one point in the 3rd quarter I just stood up and soaked it all in. That place wasn't built by humans. It's like the pyramids or that face on Mars...:thumbsup2:

Now that the crystal ball and free garden hose from Sears is out of the way :thumbsup2: the REAL PRIZE is at stake: The Glorious Rose Bowl.

We can still accomplish our 3 goals...

1. Beat Michigan
2. Win the Big Ten
3. Go to the Rose Bowl

So I'm happy about that. The loss to Illinois (aside from the obvious coaching/strategic flaws) could be a good thing. We can now see how Mr. Wonderful gets his players up with a week to prepare after being humiliated.

It does tick me off cuz we lost a game. A conference game. A rivalry game. Plus our winning streak records were lost but we did secure the longest winning streak in Big Ten history, beat PSU to go up 12-11 over 'em all-time and won our most consecutive regular season games ever. I had those as secondary goals coming into this year. A win would have clinched at least a share of the conf. but I kind of like it this way. This coaching staff still hasn't prepared these kids for anything (part of the larger reason why I walked out of the Wisky game) and now we get our ultimate test with no computers, journalists or backroom deals.

Beat Michigan or your season a complete failure...PERIOD.

I love those stakes. I just don't know if we're up to the challenge.

We'll get killed in the Rose Bowl IF we go by either Oregon or ASU but that's the coaching again.

Doesn't matter...once your cleats hit that grass in Pasadena it's all gravy.

I'm so excited about the possibility of going (cuz I'd go in person) I can hardly contain myself.

Last edited by buckeyefan78; 11-13-2007 at 12:23 PM.
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Old 11-11-2007, 03:31 PM   #4
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I'm much more of a Tressel supporter than you (which is to say I don't despise him ), but I agree this was a poorly coached game. Chris Wells was fighting injuries, but that's nothing new and when he was running he was effective. I don't know how much of it is Boeckman is a bonehead and can't read coverages, or coaching mistakes, but that's been a problem all year completely overlooked by the media (big suprise). All that said, our defense let Williams convert two huge third downs...they pretty much laid down and let them run all over us that entire 4th quarter. A 3rd and 10 converted with (guess what?) a Williams barely delayed run straight up the middle...all that stuff concerns me, hopefully Tressel is saving Wells up for this game, because we are going to need him. I like our chances against any team in the Pac-10 right now except Oregon. You are much more sold on ASU than I am. I think USC is going to go into their stadium and beat them this week.
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Old 11-11-2007, 03:47 PM   #5
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Well, Tressel's off the field issues play a role too but anyone could have seen this a mile away. And it's sad that nobody did...like the media...as you noted. But that's the role of the "journalists"...just play up their angles.

The whole love affair with Tressel has always sickened me and one huge reason (though there are plenty of others as we've talked about over the years) is because of the media hype/love like he's reinvented the wheel. I got bad news for folks, this guy has simply got OSU back to where it was under Hayes and Bruce. It's a creation/blind following due to how bad the Cooper years were.

Say we lose Saturday. That gives us this in terms of first 7 years in order of importance...

VS. Michigan
Hayes: 4-3
Bruce: 4-3
Cooper: 1-5-1
Tressel: 5-2

Big Ten titles
Hayes: 3 (all outright)
Bruce: 3 (2 outright)
Cooper: 1 (0 outright)
Tressel: 3 (1 outright)

Rose Bowl Appearances (based on projections from old standard due to BCS)
Hayes: 2
Bruce: 2
Cooper: 0
Tressel: 1

****************
See what I mean? Those are the 3 goals...PERIOD. He's simply "near" them in comparison with Woody and Earl and the problem with that is those guys were under CONSTANT pressure/heat. Tressel is God for simply getting close to the old guard? Not on my watch. He needs to win Saturday or heavy heat should come down. It won't...cuz of the new guard and their low standards...but in my world...this guy's ass should be in a sling.

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Old 11-11-2007, 04:25 PM   #6
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Oh yeah, a formal congrats to the Big Ten for getting 10 teams bowl eligible.

NW, MSU and Iowa all won on Saturday getting that 6th win.
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Old 11-11-2007, 05:53 PM   #7
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If Tennessee and UGA both win out, and UT faces LSU in the SEC title game, and LSU destroys them and ends up in the MNC, then UGA will play in the Sugar. (get all that?)
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Old 11-11-2007, 06:13 PM   #8
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As I've said before, I don't know enough about what happens off the field to make a judgment either way about Tressel...but on the field, even with a projected loss, his numbers are as good (and against Michigan better) than Hayes and Bruce. With a win, he is tied or ahead in every category. This doesn't make him God, but I don't see why he should be facing heat to be fired...who would you want leading the program besides him? (That isn't rhetorical, I know you probably have people in mind, and I am curious). Anyway, "just" coaching at a level of Hayes is no small feat, IMO. If anyone is a god in Columbus it is Woody Hayes.
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Old 11-13-2007, 12:23 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Ricky the Kid View Post
As I've said before, I don't know enough about what happens off the field to make a judgment either way about Tressel...but on the field, even with a projected loss, his numbers are as good (and against Michigan better) than Hayes and Bruce. With a win, he is tied or ahead in every category. This doesn't make him God, but I don't see why he should be facing heat to be fired...who would you want leading the program besides him? (That isn't rhetorical, I know you probably have people in mind, and I am curious). Anyway, "just" coaching at a level of Hayes is no small feat, IMO. If anyone is a god in Columbus it is Woody Hayes.
If you don't consider him God than that's good but the rest of the world does.

Any and every coach at Ohio State should be under heat at all times unless they win EVERY SINGLE game. That's life.

All I'm saying is that his numbers are very comparable with Hayes/Bruce and they never received the love at the level Tressel is getting right now. They'll call it "different eras" but to me it's just a laxing of standards. Don't get me wrong...Jimmy's done well on the field but it isn't astronomically better than Hayes and Bruce. In fact, Bruce started feeling major heat after his 7th season with those credentials and finally got fired in season #9 the Monday of Michigan week.

Who would I want leading the program right now? I had many folks in mind back when he was hired but if you want a list of guys I would want in right now over him here ya go (no particular order). You have to be from Ohio and/or coached at Ohio State/the Big Ten (no renegade Confederates ala John Cooper)...

- Bo Pellini, Youngstown (at LSU)
- Mark Dantonio, Ohio State (at Michigan State)
- Bob Stoops, Youngstown (at Oklahoma)
- Mike Stoops, Youngstown (at Arizona)
- Pat Narduzzi, Youngstown (at Michigan State)
- Shane Montgomery, Newark and Miami of Ohio
- Tom Amstutz, Toledo
- Tom O'Brien, Cincinnati (at NC State)
- Gary Pinkel, Akron (at Missouri)

There's a few names...oh...off the top of my head.
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Old 11-13-2007, 01:21 PM   #10
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Kansas impressed me with their win over Oklahoma State, but I still think they could drop at least two games before bowl season comes around (Missouri in Arrowhead Stadium, and Oklahoma in the Big XII Championship game).

If they lose even one of those games, I think their terrible scheduling this season (they have only defeated two teams with a winning record) will keep them from getting an at-large bid into a BCS bowl.
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Old 11-13-2007, 02:22 PM   #11
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Would Kansas even make it to the Big 12 championship game if Missouri beats them? They would both have one conference loss, but Missouri would have the better North record because their loss would come from a Big 12 South oppenent in Oklahoma, and Kansas's loss would be to Missouri. Im not sure if that makes a difference but its a situation...
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Old 11-13-2007, 03:22 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachJ
Would Kansas even make it to the Big 12 championship game if Missouri beats them? They would both have one conference loss, but Missouri would have the better North record because their loss would come from a Big 12 South oppenent in Oklahoma, and Kansas's loss would be to Missouri. Im not sure if that makes a difference but its a situation...
I would assume that Missouri would go on to the Big XII Championship game to represent the North in this scenario. I am hoping the Tigers (who I think are the best team in the North) will lose this weekend in Manhattan to Kansas State, so the outcome of the Kansas/Missouri game matters very little to the Big XII North crown.

Either way, I don't see Missouri or Kansas beating Oklahoma in the Big XII Championship game, and neither one would receive an at-large bid to a BCS bowl without winning the conference championship game.
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Old 11-13-2007, 03:28 PM   #13
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I don't see Cincinnati or West Virginia getting in as an at-large. The Big East is a one-bid league and it's going to stay that way. No way a 10-2 Cincinnati or West Virginia team gets an at-large over 10-2 Ohio State. These bowls exist to make money and OSU brings in an awful lot of it. Neither of those schools, especially Cincinnati, have that kind of pull.

FOX will absolutely ***** itself if those are the BCS match ups. Outside of Oregon-LSU those are all ratings nightmares. Clemson-Cincinnati? Blah. Hawaii-Oklahoma? The Warriors don't deserve the bid. Kansas-West Virginia? The best match up of the bunch and that's not saying much. ABC sure picked a good time to let the BCS contract go. They get arguably the best game outside of the MNC game in the Rose Bowl.

Here's my attempt at the BCS plus the New Year's Day games:
BCS National Championship Game: Oregon vs LSU
Sugar Bowl: Missouri vs Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs Hawaii
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs West Virginia
Rose Bowl: Arizona State vs Ohio State

Citrus Bowl: Illinois vs Florida
Gator Bowl: Texas vs Virginia
Cotton Bowl: Kansas vs Tennessee
Outback Bowl: Penn State vs Kentucky
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Old 11-13-2007, 08:20 PM   #14
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Alex...

I have Cincinnati as the Big East Champ with WVU as co-champ and the Bearcats getting the at-large bid. Obviously I think Cincy will beat the Mountaineers this weekend.

The problem with Ohio State in my scenario is that they would be coming off two consecutive losses. I don't know if the BCS would still grab them somewhere even with the $ and name. Texas will/should finish 10-2 but the reason why I don't think they will get a bid is because Kansas will/should finish 12-1. I don't think the BCS will pass up a 1-loss team from a BCS conference that lost on the final day of the season to a BCS NC Game participant (Oklahoma).

LOL at Fox hating the match ups I have listed. True...and funny.

The problem with Georgia at this point is assuming they run the table the rest of the way (a big IF) and then lose to LSU in the SEC CG (as I have as do you) then they will have 3 losses.

Plus losing on the last day of the season with that many losses will send them flying backward in the BCS ratings. It may not be fair and Mike may s-hit his pants but if Georgia gets to Atlanta, loses, finishes 10-3 then I think Florida (9-3) would leapfrog them in the BCS rankings and be a more attractive fit for the Sugar Bowl cuz of Tebow/Meyer and the overall vanity of having the defending MNC.

I should stipulate in my rankings...

Big Ten Champion: Michigan
Big East Champion: Cincinnati, WVU (Bearcats get automatic bid)
ACC Champion: Clemson over Virginia (not V Tech) for the automatic and only bid
SEC Champion: LSU over Georgia
Pac Ten Champion: Oregon and Arizona State (Ducks get automatic bid)
Big Twelve Champion: Oklahoma
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Old 11-13-2007, 08:23 PM   #15
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You are finally starting to make sense Buck, should I be concerned?
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