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Old 10-24-2018, 01:03 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 8 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 1-12-1. Season totals: 40-62-5, Pct. .397. Best Bets: 10-10-1, Pct. .500.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

HOUSTON
28, Miami 17 (+7 1/2) - One, twelve and one, I know. But in percentage terms at least, it's still better than Miami's lifetime winning percentage in Houston, which is .000 (on 0-4, albeit 2-2 against the spread), with a 7-17 record both ways, which is not so great a percentage either, since 2013 as a visitor on the carpet. "Brocktober" was fun while it lasted - and if Jon Gruden decides to include David "Dude, Where's My" Carr in his Stalinist purge, Miami would be Carr's ideal landing spot, as the Dolphins need to finally pull the plug on Ryan "Red Cross" Tannehill.


SUNDAY

Jacksonville
27 (+2), Philadelphia 14 - The Jags return to their friendly home away from home, where they have won in each of the last three years, including a 44-7 pasting of Baltimore last year (by contrast, this will be the first time that the Eagles will have ever played on the "pitch"). I have seen so many instances of teams blowing a game by allowing a whole bunch of unanswered points at the end - and it almost always carries over into their next game. So look for Jacksonville to jump out to a big early lead and never look back in this "One-Year Flash In The Pan Bowl."

Washington 30, N.Y. GIANTS 21 (+1) - How did you like the Giants and their back-door cover Monday night? And granted, Elizabeth Warren's Team (no more "The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name") has struggled mightily on the carpet for quite some time (5-17 straight up and 9-13 against the line since 2013), but one day after trading starting cornerback Eli Apple to the Saints for less than he's worth, the Giants traded another defensive starter, nose tackle Damon Harrison, to the Lions for less than he's worth. If it waddles like tanking and quacks like tanking, it must be tanking. The NFL cannot go to a lottery system a moment too soon.

CHICAGO 27, N.Y. Jets 17 (+6 1/2) - Not thrilled with the value here, but Sam Darnold has served up 10 interceptions, the most in the league - and the Bears have won and covered in the last four meetings, while the Jets are 10-22 straight up and 12-20 against the spread on grass since 2011. The Jets are also having dissension problems, most of them allegedly being stirred up by running back Isaiah Crowell, but nothing on a par with what afflicts their MetLife Stadium co-tenants.

PITTSBURGH 31, Cleveland 14 (+7) - Cleveland 2.0 is closing in on the all-time consecutive road losses record, and has lost 14 straight at The Big Ketchup Bottle - a streak reminiscent of Cleveland 1.0's losing its first 16 games at Three Rivers Stadium, a situation that Steelers player-turned-announcer Lynn Swann called "one of the most stupefying jinxes in football."

CAROLINA 17 (+1), Baltimore 13 - If they ever do a remake of The Wizard Of Oz, the Ravens need to be in it. They can sing "If We Only Had An Offense."

CINCINNATI 24, Tampa Bay 21 (+4 1/2) - Like Washington, the Bucs have not fared well on the carpet since 2013 (5-19 straight and 8-15-1 against the spread), but the last three games in this series have all been decided by three points or less (two of them by identical scores of 14-13), and Tampa Bay also has a four-game covering streak over the Bengals, who are impossible to back at this number coming off a 45-10 blowout loss.

DETROIT 31, Seattle 20 (+2 1/2) - Maybe the Seahawks should have stayed in the Kingdome, which was imploded in the spring of 2000: Starting with their loss to the Steelers in Super Bowl XL, they're 12-25-3 against the line inside NFL domes. The home team in this one has also covered in five of the last six, and Seattle is 7-20-2 coming off a bye week - the worst post-bye spread record in the league.

KANSAS CITY 41, Denver 21 (+9 1/2) - This is the first time this has come up this year: Dating back to 1997, teams losing the first meeting at home to a division rival have a .335 winning percentage in the rematches on the road; all other road teams over the same period have won at a .425 clip. The Chiefs have also beaten the Broncos six times in a row, covering in five, and Case Keenum in in sole possession of second place in the "pick derby," with nine.

ARIZONA 30, San Francisco 14 (+1) - And three hours and 25 minutes later it comes up again - and it is not the only thing the Cards have in their favor: They have a seven-game winning streak over the 49ers, who have an eight-game losing streak indoors during which they have been outscored 238-117. Josh Rosen should be good to go after sustaining a turf toe against Denver, thanks largely to the three extra days he will have to recover from it - and how do you get a turf toe on natural grass?

L.A. RAMS 35, Green Bay 21 (+10) - Which streak is more important: Green Bay's five game win-and-cover streak over the Rams by a combined 147-64, or the four-game loss and non-cover streak that the Packers have on the road going back to last year in which they have been outscored 128-75? (Green Bay has been almost an equal-opportunity money-burner of late, covering in just two of nine since Week 15 of last year regardless of where the games have been played) And like the way the Rams snapped out of it last week after three wins that were all decided by seven points or less, with an 0-2-1 record against the spread - and don't like the Packer running game: Jamaal Williams is their leading rusher, with 224 yards. That ranks 42nd in the league, and is the lowest total of any team's rushing leader.

Indianapolis 20, OAKLAND 7 (+1 1/2) - Andrew Luck's 20 touchdowns is second only to Patrick Mahomes' 22 - but where the Chiefs are third in the league in yards per completion with 13.6, Indianapolis is last with 9.6. If you really like the Colts, you might want to get in early just in case Jon Gruden unloads any more of his big players, which would push this line up.

MINNESOTA 29, New Orleans 21 (+1) - The Vikings scored 29 points in both of their wins over the Saints last year, both of which were at home - one in the regular season, the other in the playoffs. And this number should probably be higher, plus both Kirk Cousins and his teammates on defense, who have given up 298 yards a game in their last three after getting gashed for 556 by the Rams on a Thursday night in Week 4, are back on track.


MONDAY NIGHT

New England
38, BUFFALO 10 (+13) - The Pats seem stuck on 38, which they have hit in three of their last four games (and hanging up 43 in their other game). If they hit 38 again here, they will cover with their eyes closed, with or without Buffalo native Rob Gronkowski - especially at a venue at which they are 13-1 straight up and 11-2-1 against the spread in their last 14 appearances.


BEST BETS: KANSAS CITY, ARIZONA, NEW ENGLAND

Last edited by Anthony; 10-24-2018 at 05:09 PM.
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