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Old 10-26-2016, 09:35 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 8 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 10-5. Season totals: 43-47-2, Pct. .478. Best Bets: 8-9-1, Pct. .472.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

TENNESSEE
21, Jacksonville 13 (+3) - The key to evaluating any game involving The Team That Should Be Known As The Nashville Oilers is how well their third-ranked running game matches up against the opponent's run defense; in this case, Jacksonville is 18th against the run - and the home team in this series has won eight of the last ten straight up, and covered six of the last eight.


SUNDAY

Cincinnati
24, Washington 20 (+2 1/2) - Hopefully we'll give the Twickenham faithful a better game than they were "treated to" last week, otherwise there is liable to be an international incident! Conceptually, the site favors Washington because it is on natural grass, but the Bengals are 19-10-1 versus the points on grass since 2011.

CLEVELAND 17 (+3), N.Y. Jets 16 - Still no line at most outlets because literally any of four different quarterbacks could start for the Browns - and looking at their remaining schedule, it's either a win here against a team that is 7-15 straight up on grass since 2011, or in Week 16 in the cold weather against San Diego, or it is very likely an 0-16 season.

New England 34, BUFFALO 20 (+5 1/2) - True, teams losing the first meeting at home to a division rival have won at just a .340 clip in the rematches on the road since 1997, when all other road teams have a .426 winning percentage. But the Bills have not swept the Pats in this millennium (conveniently last having done so in 1999), and of course New England didn't have Tom Brady in the first game, but will have Brady here. Furthermore, Buffalo did have LeSean McCoy then, and might not (hamstring) now.

CAROLINA 27, Arizona 10 (+2 1/2) - No doubt the 1-5 Panthers wish that there was an 18-game schedule - but even with 16 games the Chiefs made the playoffs from 1-5 just last year. And the Cardinals, who really left 'em laughing Sunday night, are the second worst team in the NFL in fatigue games - 4-11 straight up (5-10 against the spread) - and the home team in the series has won the last five meetings, with a 4-0-1 spread record therein (the push occurring in Cam Newton's first NFL start). Best bet.

Oakland 30 (P), TAMPA BAY 20 - How unbeatable are the Raiders against the lesser teams? Last week at Jacksonville, Oakland punter Marquette King turned a botched snap on fourth and 24 into a 27-yard run and a first down. It should be no different this week.

INDIANAPOLIS 33 (+3), Kansas City 21 - Andrew Luck hasn't looked this good in two years and the Colts are 13-2 straight up against KC since 1990, including five outright upsets as underdogs. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are a sickly 8-24 straight up in their last 32 games on artificial turf (and with a chance of showers in the works, their 6-14 outright and 7-12-1 pointwise records in domes since 1998 could also come into play). Upset special.

Seattle 30, NEW ORLEANS 28 (+3 1/2) - Back-to-back indoor games for the Seahawks, who are 11-21-3 against the line inside NFL domes dating back to Super Bowl XL. Home team has also won the last four in this one. And you know the drill by now: Last team that has the ball wins, the Saints cover.

HOUSTON 20, Detroit 13 (+2 1/2) - So, the Texans are one of "those" teams - 4-0 at home, 0-3 on the road. And dating back to 2001, the Lions are an almost-unbelievable 18-59 straight up on grass and 23-71 outdoors (and the long-range weather forecast for Houston makes any closure of the NRG Stadium roof unlikely).

DENVER 24, San Diego 14 (+6 1/2) - Not buying that the Chargers are even a mediocre team - and after just snapping a ten-game losing streak within the AFC West, do you honestly envision them going out and sweeping division rivals?

Green Bay 27 (+2 1/2), ATLANTA 21 - Fans. Don't you just love them: The Packers lose by a field goal at 5-1 Minnesota and to 5-1 Dallas, whose only loss was by one point, and those fans were running off the cliff like lemmings. Green Bay takes a four-game winning streak over the Falcons into this one; and the home team in the series, a four-game no-cover streak.

DALLAS 23, Philadelphia 20 (+4 1/2) - The Eagles proved they could win a fatigue game last week, and against a quality team - and are 14-5-2 against the line in God's Country since 1996, including 4-0-2 in this decade. That's good enough for me to at least take the points.


MONDAY NIGHT

CHICAGO
14 (+6), Minnesota 13 - This game misses being an official "cold weather" game (and a "Triple Witching Hour" game) by four and a half hours - but what it doesn't miss is being a road game for the Vikings at a venue in which they are 1-7 straight up and 2-6 against the spread since 2008, and 2-13 and 4-10-1 since 2001 - and speaking of 2001, Minnesota's form as a visitor on the grass and outdoors since that year closely resembles Detroit's: 23-51-1 straight up in the former and 24-68-1 (also 38-52-3 against the spread) in the latter. And Jay Cutler - remember him? - has been medically cleared to play. Giving points on the road will not pay this week.


BEST BETS: CAROLINA, OAKLAND, INDIANAPOLIS

Last edited by Anthony; 10-26-2016 at 10:29 AM.
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