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Old 10-29-2014, 04:40 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 9 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 2-12-1. Season totals: 58-61-2, Pct. .488. Best Bets: 10-14, Pct. .417.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

CAROLINA
27 (+1 1/2), New Orleans 24 - How can you give points with the Saints on the road when they can't win on the road? The Panthers haven't exactly been setting the world on fire of late, but in this situation you have to pick them on principle.


SUNDAY

KANSAS CITY
31, N.Y. Jets 16 (+9 1/2) - Let this roll around in your head: The Jets have lost seven in a row after opening their season with a win over a team that has lost 13 in a row! The home team in this series has also won the last four straight up, the Chiefs have covered in four of the last five, and Andy Reid outscored the Jets 85-43 in three games against them with the Eagles, all victories.

MIAMI 20, San Diego 14 (+1 1/2) - Did you agree with Eddie Rabbitt and loved a rainy night when he sang about it back in 1981? (Rabbitt also wrote Kentucky Rain, with which Elvis had a medium-sized hit eleven years earlier - so maybe Rabbitt had a rain fetish?). I ask that question here because it was in that same year that the Chargers most recently won in Miami; since then, seven losses for San Diego in South Florida. And do you see a theme starting to reveal itself in this week's picks?

CLEVELAND 19, Tampa Bay 9 (+6) - The Browns, in last place in the AFC North, have a one-game lead over the Panthers, who are in first place in the NFC South! And with this week officially begins the cold-weather season - and Tampa Bay, last in the NFC South, is 15-42 straight up and 22-35 against the line as a visitor in cold weather; i.e., as a warm-weather or indoor team playing on the road at a northern, outdoor site in November or later.

CINCINNATI 26, Jacksonville 7 (+13) - Jacksonville also fits into that "visitor in cold weather" category - and since 2008 is 2-8 straight up and 3-7 against the line therein. In addition, the Jaguars have lost four in a row both ways on artificial turf and were outscored 143-65 in the quartet, and have lost and non-covered in each of their last three versus the Bengals, who erased a lot of doubts with their gritty win over the Ravens last week.

MINNESOTA 17, Washington 10 (+2 1/2) - With Washington having a bye next week, don't expect to see RGIII return here - and the same "If you missed their wedding last week, you might also want to miss the funeral this week" angle that gave you the Rams losing big last week, and the Browns losing (to Jacksonville!) the week before, most definitely applies here as well.

DALLAS 35, Arizona 13 (+4) - Not only have the Cardinals lost 14 consecutive regular-season games in Dallas, but they have been outscored by a staggering 428-131 doing it. Unless Tony Romo - who is 16-1 straight up lifetime at home in November - doesn't play, this will be an absolute bloodbath.

HOUSTON 23 (+3), Philadelphia 16 - The Texans haven't beaten this kind yet this year, while the Eagles haven't lost to this kind yet this year - and the Eagles are 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread in the series, the non-cover occurring when they won by 18 as a 20-point favorite in 2002. But over the past three weeks, teams coming off a loss are 8-14-1 straight up when facing opponents who were coming off a win. Upset special in, if you haven't been able to figure it out by now, what will be an even more awesome week for home teams than it will be for Republicans - if that is indeed even possible.

SAN FRANCISCO 30, St. Louis 13 (+9 1/2) - Three Monday nights ago the 49ers won 31-17 at St. Louis - and dating back to 1997, teams winning the first meeting over a division rival on the road have won the rematches at home 66.9% of the time, compared with the home teams' 57.7% win rate in all other games over the same period. And since moving their home digs indoors midway through the 1995 season, the Rams are 37-76-1 straight up and 42-69-3 against the spread outdoors, and also 31-56-1 outright and 34-51-3 pointwise on grass.

NEW ENGLAND 37 (+3 1/2), Denver 27 - Tom Brady hasn't been a home underdog very often, but when he has been one, he has made the most of it, as in 5-2 straight up and 6-1 against the spread. Brady is also 10-5 straight up lifetime vs. Peyton Manning head-to-head, while Denver has dropped four in a row both ways in Foxboro by a combined 151-69 and is 8-17 against the line since 2007 as a visitor on the carpet. Deja vu all over again as what happened in Week 12 of last year repeats itself - save that this time it will have an even more decisive outcome.

SEATTLE 48, Oakland 10 (+15) - It is almost cruel to point out that the home team in this erstwhile AFC West rivalry has won ten in a row and has covered in all of the last eight and has done so by a combined 131 points - and if the Seahawks are not in a cruel mood, they might keep the outcome of this one within like five TDs or so.

PITTSBURGH 24 (P), Baltimore 21 - Maybe after last week's near-record-breaking performance, the Rooneys will see to it next spring that Big Ben retires as a Steeler? And long live the home teams this week!


MONDAY NIGHT

N.Y. GIANTS
33 (+3), Indianapolis 23 - But can the home teams actually win and cover in every single game this week? They sure can - and especially if they're still alive for doing so going into this game: No Manning-vs.-Manning aura hanging over this Colts-Giants game, and the Giants, who were once the worst post-bye team in the NFL, have won their last six in that role, while the Colts are 2-9 in their last eleven in cold weather, with both victories coming at the same venue (Kansas City).


BEST BETS: DALLAS, NEW ENGLAND, N.Y. GIANTS

Last edited by Anthony; 10-29-2014 at 05:06 AM.
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Old 04-04-2015, 09:30 AM   #2
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The Texans haven't beaten this kind yet this year, while the Eagles haven't lost to this kind yet this year - and the Eagles are 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread in the series, the non-cover occurring when they won by 18 as a 20-point favorite in 2002. But over the past three weeks, teams coming off a loss are 8-14-1 straight up when facing opponents who were coming off a win. Upset special in, if you haven't been able to figure it out by now, what will be an even more awesome week for home teams than it will be for Republicans - if that is indeed even possible.??

Last edited by Marc; 05-08-2015 at 07:02 PM.
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