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Old 09-16-2015, 10:28 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 2 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 10-6. Season totals: 10-6, Pct. .625. Best Bets: 3-0, Pct. 1.000.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

Denver
34 (+2 1/2), KANSAS CITY 20 - Peyton Manning very rarely has two bad games in a row, and here he is facing a team he has beaten nine times in a row, with six covers, and Denver has won 15 in a row on the road on natural grass, and 14-1 against the spread. So, as underdogs in such a game?


SUNDAY

N.Y. GIANTS
27, Atlanta 19 (+2) - The home team has won the last four meetings after having dropped twelve straight prior; and the Falcons, who had to settle for four field goals facing what could be both the softest and the worst defense in the NFL Monday night, have had their problems outdoors of late, winning just two of 13 in 2013-14.

New England 28, BUFFALO 13 (+1 1/2) - Not ready to mount the Tyrod Taylor bandwagon after one game, and the "Cheetahs" have beaten Buffalo in 21 of the last 23, with one of the losses coming in last year's Week 17 "Siesta Bowl" for the Patriots, who will have three extra days to prepare for this. Another key stat is New England's 7-2 straight-up record on the road on artificial turf (5-4 against the line) since 2013, compared with 3-6 on natural grass (2-7 against the line).

PITTSBURGH 27, San Francisco 10 (+6 1/2) - The exact same thoughts apply here: One game does not mean that the 49ers did the right thing by handing the reins to Jim Tomsula, the Steelers will have four extra days' worth of preparation time, and the home team was won the last three by a combined 87-33.

St. Louis 20, WASHINGTON 7 (+3) - DeSean Jackson is as fragile as he is fast, sustaining a totally non-contact hamstring injury in the opener that is expected to sideline him for up to a month, and the Rams will be seeking their sixth cover in their last seven in DC, and should get it.

Houston 16 (+3 1/2), CAROLINA 13 - Carolina's Week 1 win in Jacksonville was not impressive and while the Texans struggled against better teams in their first season under Bill O'Brien, they did beat another member of last year's Elite Eight, Baltimore. The key three-and-a-half-point number is worth taking in this spot.

Tennessee 27 (+4), CLEVELAND 21 - There has to be a reason why this line has moved from Browns by 4 to Titans by 1. Could it be Marcus Mariota, who began his NFL career with a perfect-passer-rating game? Or maybe it's Tennessee's 4-1 record both ways on the road versus Cleveland 2.0.

San Diego 31 (+3 1/2), CINCINNATI 24 - Big deal, the Bengals mauled the Raiders, who were without their starting quarterback for most of the game, for their first-ever win in Oakland - and breaking those kind of hexes often produces a letdown the following week, and the Chargers have won and covered in four of their last five in the City of Satan, and the home team in this one all told has covered in just one of the last eight. On board for the upset.

CHICAGO 17 (+2), Arizona 14 - The Bears are one of four teams whose season is essentially over if they lose this week, in that only one team in NFL history, the 2003 Eagles, has ever made the playoffs after starting a season with two home losses in a non-strike year (the other three with their backs to this same wall are Washington, Jacksonville and Oakland); and speaking of 2003, that was the last time Chicago got off to an 0-2 start, and with the Cardinals on looking-ahead watch with back to back division games coming up, the home underdog is the way to go in this one.

Detroit 24 (+3), MINNESOTA 20 - Adrian Peterson may have hit the wall at age 30, especially after all but missing an entire season. And should the Vikings be favored here? I think not.

NEW ORLEANS 38, Tampa Bay 17 (+10 1/2) - Jameis Winston's NFL debut was too bad to be true and his new team has lost seven straight to the Saints and is 3-7 against the spread on rugs and 2-5 pointwise in domes since 2013.

Miami 16, JACKSONVILLE 3 (+4) - After his Edmonton Oilers won a lopsided game over the New Jersey Devils in the '80s, Wayne Gretzky accused the Devils of putting a Mickey Mouse operation on the ice and stating that the Devils had better get some better personnel real soon, since they were ruining the game. Three decades later, the Jaguars are putting a Mickey Mouse operation on the field, and they had better get some better personnel real soon, since they are ruining the game. For what it's worth, the Dolphins have won and covered three in a row when visiting their in-state rival, and should have little trouble making it four, although the game figures to be about as exciting as a mouthful of sawdust and water.

Baltimore 24, OAKLAND 0 (+6) - Stealing Hillary's thunder, what difference does it make if Derek Carr or Matt McGloin starts at quarterback for the Raiders? And it hasn't seemed to make any difference whether they were in Baltimore or Cleveland when it comes to The Modell Franchise winning in Oakland: It has won ten of the last eleven there and covered in nine of them. It is interesting how none of what figure to be the biggest dregs of the NFL - Oakland, Washington, Jacksonville - play each other this year. Could there be multiple 0-16 teams in 2015?

Dallas 31 (+5), PHILADELPHIA 16 - Monday night's dink-and-dunk-fest by the Eagles was breathtaking: Their wide receivers averaged 9.6 yards per catch! Dallas was 5-1 straight up and 6-0 against the spread on grass a year ago, and the home team here is 0-6-1 against the spread in the last seven. The Cowboys won't even need Dez Bryant to win this one.

GREEN BAY 24, Seattle 17 (+3 1/2) - Don't like the three and a half, but I like the Seahawks at Lambeau even less: They haven't won there since 1999, getting outscored 181-87 in five outings, with one half-point cover (in a 2003 wild-card playoff game) and four entries on the debit side of the financial ledger. And if they do start 0-2, it serves them right for being cheap and not showing Kam Chancellor the money.


MONDAY NIGHT

N.Y. Jets
23 (+6 1/2), INDIANAPOLIS 21 - Didn't the Colts get off to an 0-2 start last year, with the second loss coming at home on Monday night? And they still won the AFC South by open games.


BEST BETS: DENVER, BALTIMORE, DALLAS
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