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Old 11-30-2016, 12:41 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 13 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 5-9-2. Season totals: 76-78-6, Pct. .494. Best Bets: 16-16-1, Pct. .500.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

MINNESOTA
30 (+2 1/2), Dallas 27 - The Cowboys began playing on Thanksgiving on a continuous basis in 1978 - and in their first 11 years of that period, under Tom Landry, they were 8-3 against the spread in their next game, but just 12-14 since; and cracks began to show in their façade a week ago, as they not only saw their nine-game covering streak end even if they did extend their straight-up winning streak to ten, but their defense also gave up an alarming 505 yards to Washington - and on the other side of the streak coin, Dallas has not only lost five in a row both ways at Minnesota, but has been outscored 147-68 in the quintet. Upset special to start December.


SUNDAY

N.Y. Giants
26 (+4 1/2), PITTSBURGH 21 - One can argue that the Steelers would be better than 6-5 if LeVeon Bell didn't miss the first three games due to a suspension and Ben Roethlisberger didn't miss one game outright with a mid-season injury and played seriously impaired in at least two others, but this line is still seriously out of whack and Fran Tarkenton was the Giants' quarterback the last time they lost in Pittsburgh - in 1971. This UINO - Upset In Name Only - is the week's best bet.

NEW ENGLAND 21, Los Angeles 10 (+13) - And for the third week in a row, Bill Belichick takes a knee - no, not that kind of knee - deep in the other team's territory and runs out the clock, forgoing a score that would cover the spread!

Denver 16, JACKSONVILLE 14 (+4) - The Jags played an early-time-slot game last week, while the Broncos played a Sunday night game that went to the absolute last play of overtime - and Blake Bortles holds a rare talent edge over his opponent this week, and he's getting four points at home with his team seeking their fifth straight cover in this series. Take Bortles with the points against a coach who may have proven to have pulled a Tom Osborne and not taken a sure tie that would have made the difference between getting in the playoffs and not getting in.

CINCINNATI 28 (+1 1/2), Philadelphia 17 - Last week was an embarrassing week for both Andy Reid's secondary and his understudy's secondary, as they allowed Week 12 passer ratings of 125.6 and 116.7 respectively. And the Eagles are 0-12 against the spread lifetime versus Cincinnati, including never having won in the City of Satan - and four of Philadelphia's last seven games of 2015 consisted of double-digit losses, and already has two such losses working on the last seven of 2016, in which it is also 0-4 both ways as a visitor on the carpet.

ATLANTA 33, Kansas City 21 (+4) - Apparently President-elect Donald Trump will not rule out torture when dealing with terrorists. But how does he feel abut torch-ure - as in the way Trevor Siemian torched the Chiefs secondary Sunday night? And now it has to face the league leaders in yards per completion (Atlanta is averaging 13.4), and since 1998 KC is 14-32 straight up and 20-25-1 against the spread on rugs and 7-14 outright and 8-12-1 pointwise in domes; and just in case you get the idea that the Chiefs might lose by a field goal and cover: The final scores of the last five games in this series have been 40-24, 38-14, 56-10, 29-13, and 30-10.

BALTIMORE 27, Miami 14 (+3 1/2) - How many of the games in Miami's current six-game winning streak were on artificial turf? Answer: None (indeed four of them were at home, and the two road foes both have losing records). And how many of them were in cold weather? Answer: Also none. And why do either of these facts matter? Answer: Because the Dolphins have dropped their last seven on artificial turf (1-6 against the spread), and Miami is 18-39 straight up and 24-32-1 against the line since 1995 as a visitor in cold weather. They are also 1-5 straight up and 0-6 against the spread in their last half dozen vs. the Ravens and have not won in Baltimore since 1997.

San Francisco 21 (+1), CHICAGO 13 - Since neither team has played or will play Cleveland this year, this will have to do as the "Bulimia Bowl" of 2016. In the series, the home team has lost the last two, after having won the previous 11 by a combined 348-112, and the Bears are 5-18 straight up in December since 2011. The old, pre-National Anthem-blaspheming Colin Kaepernick showing spotty signs of returning.

GREEN BAY 23, Houston 10 (+6) - Yeah, the Texans are a "bargain" at this price. Like that helped them cover last week either. And never mind Captain Checkdown: Brock Osweiler is General Checkdown, averaging 9.7 yards per completion, and with DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller to throw to. Don't bet on The General and save some money!

Detroit 35 (+3 1/2), NEW ORLEANS 28 - But the Lions are a legitimate bargain here - and unlike the Rams last week, they can match the Saints blow-for-blow offensively if need be. Plus Detroit already has an indoor road win this year, at Minnesota. Trust 'em.

OAKLAND 37, Buffalo 17 (+3 1/2) - And the Raiders are an even bigger bargain than either Houston or Detroit, as this line should be in the neighborhood of a touchdown - without even factoring in that Buffalo is 35-69 straight up and 44-58-2 against the line dating back to 1995 as a visitor on the grass and has not won in Oakland since 1966!

ARIZONA 24, Washington 20 (+2 1/2) - How does a team rank first in the league in total defense and their offense third in time of possession and be 4-6-1? But with a 4-16 straight-up record inside NFL domes since 2009, Washington's status as any bargain in this spot may be more apparent than real. Home team in this one has also won four straight, with Arizona covering in three.

SAN DIEGO 31, Tampa Bay 30 (+3 1/2) - Lots of seemingly out-of-sync lines this week - including this game, where the team with not only the better record but far more realistic playoff hopes is getting more than a field goal. Bucs defense showed last week that it has improved just enough to at least put them on the cusp of playoff contention.

SEATTLE 17, Carolina 13 (+6 1/2) - Russell Wilson is on pace for a career high seasonal passing-yards-per-game ranking - 14th! And he's 2-3 against the spread at home this year. The Panthers, who beat the Seahawks twice last year - once in the regular season and again in the playoffs - should be able to at least keep this thing close.


MONDAY NIGHT

N.Y. JETS
20 (+1), Indianapolis 17 - Before dismissing the 3-8 Jets as "lousy," remember that, after playing what was tied for the easiest schedule in the league last year (and tied with Carolina, another team whose fortunes have gone south, no pun intended, in a big way this season), they are playing one of the toughest this year. And if you want to talk lousy for real, how about the Colts in cold weather? In the Andrew Luck era, they are 5-6 (and 4-7 against the spread) with a minus-107 point differential, in cold-weather games - compared with 44-26 and plus-115 in the rest of their games. And this one's at night, which will make it even colder; furthermore, the Jets have outscored the Colts 72-32 en route to wins and covers in each of the last three meetings.


BEST BETS: N.Y. GIANTS, CINCINNATI, OAKLAND

Last edited by Anthony; 11-30-2016 at 02:37 PM.
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