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Old 10-17-2018, 01:25 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 7 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 8-6-1. Season totals: 39-50-4, Pct. .441. Best Bets: 10-8, Pct. .556.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

ARIZONA
27 (+2 1/2), Denver 20 - The teams wearing the white jerseys (all road teams except the Giants last week, who chose to wear white at home) are 0-6 straight up and 0-5-1 against the spread on Thursday night so far this year, and Vance Joseph is 1-9 both ways on the road as a head coach - and he's been outscored 284-147 in those games, including the win. Josh Rosen is getting better with each start - a trend that should continue here.


SUNDAY

L.A. Chargers
33, Tennessee 17 (+7) - The last time The Adams Family beat the Chargers anywhere other than Nashville or Houston, they were the Houston Oilers and the Chargers were the San Diego Chargers - in 1990. Not only that, but they were outscored in the seven losses involved by a combined 227-117. The Battle in Britain that starts Sunday's action won't be much of a battle.

N.Y. JETS 24 (+3), Minnesota 23 - The Vikings have never - repeat, never - beaten the Jets on the road (0-5 straight up and 1-4 against the spread), and Sam Darnold has gotten the jump on Rosen because he has been starting all season while Rosen didn't become the starter in Arizona until Sam Bradford was benched during their Week 4 loss to Seattle. And the last time the Vikings were any good outdoors, September 11th was best known for being Bear Bryant's birthday. Upset special.

PHILADELPHIA 28, Carolina 16 (+4) - The Eagles showed Thursday night how it's a whole different ballgame, no pun intended, when they get to play with a lead, and the Panthers are one of four NFL teams that are unbeaten at home and winless on the road (Dallas, Green Bay and New England are the other three) in a year when the home teams are winning at a .645 clip (59-32-2). And Cam Newton is being Cam Newton again: Carolina is 26th in the league in passing offense.

JACKSONVILLE 23, Houston 10 (+4 1/2) - The Texans are underachieving on offense, ranking 11th in yards per game but 21st in points per game, and the Jaguars should rebound at home off the class drop, coming off back-to-back crushing losses at Kansas City and Dallas.

TAMPA BAY 45, Cleveland 31 (+3) - How far the mighty have fallen: Mike Smith, who once took the Falcons to the Final Four as a head coach, was fired as Tampa Bay's defensive coordinator on Monday with the defense ranking next-to-last in yards allowed per game and last in points allowed per game, and on pace to break the all-time NFL records for most passing yards per game allowed and highest completion percentage allowed. Still, the Browns have lost 23 in a row on the road, three shy of the record set by Detroit from mid-2007 until late 2010 - and they're even just 7-16 against the spread during that streak, while the Bucs are 4-0 pointwise lifetime against Cleveland 2.0. Look for the yards and points to pile up (the Bucs are second in the league in passing), with Cleveland unable to keep up. Over 49? As Sean Salisbury used to say, that's like shooting fish in a barrel: I've never done it before but it sure sounds easy!

MIAMI 24 (+1), Detroit 21 - Doing my best Terry Bradshaw impression, how y'all like my man Brock Osweiler last week? Osweiler is clearly no worse than the third best backup quarterback in the NFL, behind only Nick Foles and Teddy Bridgewater. And he's more than good enough to lead the Dolphins to a win over the Lions outdoors and on grass if need be.

INDIANAPOLIS 17, Buffalo 13 (+9) - The Colts aren't nine points better than Rutgers! Take the points.

New England 31, CHICAGO 24 (+2 1/2) - The Patriots are 10-2 straight up and 9-3 against the spread on grass over the last three years. And since the Bears rubbed New England's noses in it in Super Bowl XX by handing the ball off to William "The Refrigerator" Perry instead of Walter Payton to score a touchdown that made the score 44-3 (Chicago eventually won 46-10), the Pats have beaten them in seven of eight meetings, including the last four in a row, the last pair by a combined 87-30 - living proof that in the NFL, they never forget.

BALTIMORE 23, New Orleans 16 (+2 1/2) - Ravens defense is partying like it's 2000, way out in front of the league in both yards and points per game allowed - and The Modell Franchise has dominated the Saints for more than two decades, with six wins and covers over them in the last seven meetings.

Dallas 20 (+1 1/2), WASHINGTON 17 - Something's gotta give here, as America's Team is 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road but has won four in a row over what has to be the team Elizabeth Warren roots for, and has won their last five at The Big Package Store. And with a non-suspended Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas is simply a better team.

L.A. Rams 28, SAN FRANCISCO 24 (+10) - In his early years as head coach of the 49ers, Bill Walsh had this to say of Steve DeBerg: "He will always play just well enough to get you beat." Nearly four decades later, there is a DeBerg clone in San Francisco, in the person of C.J. Beathard, who has pulled it twice in three starts - and with the Rams struggling with injuries, there is no reason to lay this number, especially with the Niners having covered in the last five meetings.

KANSAS CITY 37, Cincinnati 34 (+5 1/2) - Vontaze Burfict's continued dirty hits and threats to make more (he reportedly taunted JuJu Smith-Schuster "You're next" after laying out Antonio Brown last week) is casting a major pall over Andy Dalton's bid for Comeback Player of the Year honors and A.J. Green's Susan Lucci-like quest for his first All-Pro selection. And the Bengals have beaten the Chiefs four in a row (and aren't half bad on grass either - 24-15-2 against the spread on it since 2011), which is why this game was probably flexed into prime time, relegating the originally-scheduled game, between the Rams and the now quarterback-poor 49ers, to the afternoon. In any event. take the points, at least, in a game that could closely resemble last week's Sunday nighter.


MONDAY NIGHT

ATLANTA
38, N.Y. Giants 17 (+3 1/2) - Since Mercedes-Benz Stadium opened last year, its roof has been open twice (the second time last week), and the Falcons won and covered in both games and had an average net point differential of plus 8; by contrast, in the 10 closed-roof games, they're 5-5 both ways with an average net point differential of plus 3.5. So maybe they should keep the roof open more often? And the Giant circus continues as ringmaster John Mara "poured gasoline on their dumpster fire" as NBC Sports put it, piling on Odell Beckham Jr. Tuesday. With each passing week, Pat Shurmur is looking more like a latter-day Les Steckel.


BEST BETS: L.A. CHARGERS, TAMPA BAY, ATLANTA
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