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Old 06-19-2008, 06:33 PM   #1
philabramoff
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Default 2008 Election Watch

Now that the candidates have been set, time for an Election Watch
Thread. News, polls, commentary on the election until election day.

6/19/08 President Elect showed Map as Obama 285 McCain 253
Also, RCP showed Map as Obama 284 McCain 254. With toss-ups,
it was Obama 238 McCain 163 toss-up 137.

I was surprised by a couple of things...

Obama and McCain were solid in some states expected to be...
but...McCain only "leaning" in Texas and Montana ?? Obama only
"leaning" in California ?????

Michigan and Indiana are TOSS-UPS???

Demographic shifts again.

For the historians among us, take a look at the 2004 Electoral Map,
and then compare to the 1976 Map. The Red/Blue colors are almost
completely reversed!!
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Old 06-19-2008, 07:25 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philabramoff View Post
Now that the candidates have been set, time for an Election Watch
Thread. News, polls, commentary on the election until election day.

6/19/08 President Elect showed Map as Obama 285 McCain 253
Also, RCP showed Map as Obama 284 McCain 254. With toss-ups,
it was Obama 238 McCain 163 toss-up 137.

I was surprised by a couple of things...

Obama and McCain were solid in some states expected to be...
but...McCain only "leaning" in Texas and Montana ?? Obama only
"leaning" in California ?????

Michigan and Indiana are TOSS-UPS???

Demographic shifts again.

For the historians among us, take a look at the 2004 Electoral Map,
and then compare to the 1976 Map. The Red/Blue colors are almost
completely reversed!!
Some of this stuff is made up by the media IMO. Demographic shifts are of little importance right now considering how the last election...even two...fell right in line for what we've seen since Goldwater voted against the Civil Rights Act.

I have it McCain 260 Obama 239 right now based on the locks.
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Old 06-26-2008, 05:06 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by buckeyefan78 View Post
I have it McCain 260 Obama 239 right now based on the locks.
Personally, I think that the key to this election, as it has been the
last two or three, is which candidate will have the stronger
"Get Out the Vote" campaign.

Obama has a lot of people energized, so I can see a big surprise in the
Fall, and a possible thuming because of that. On the other hand, a lot
of people may get their butts into the voting booths because they are
specifically AFRAID of an Obama presidency (as is the case with me).
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Old 07-01-2008, 05:31 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by buckeyefan78 View Post
I have it McCain 260 Obama 239 right now based on the locks.
Buck...do you have a reference on this?

(not to criticize...I'm just curious about these polls)
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Old 07-01-2008, 07:07 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by philabramoff View Post
Buck...do you have a reference on this?

(not to criticize...I'm just curious about these polls)
LOL...that's my personal electoral map chart. I have it 260 to 239 based on my own research/life experience/whatever.

If I'm remembering my swings off the top of my head correctly... I have Wisconsin, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire.
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Old 07-03-2008, 05:12 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by buckeyefan78 View Post
If I'm remembering my swings off the top of my head correctly... I have Wisconsin, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire.
What about Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.

Those will be the deciders.
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Old 07-03-2008, 10:28 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by philabramoff View Post
What about Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.

Those will be the deciders.
Obama loses Florida (latino polulation), but wins Ohio and Pennsylvania.
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Old 07-07-2008, 06:34 PM   #8
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What about Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.

Those will be the deciders.
Ohio and Florida aren't swings. They are clearly McCain. Obama will still win PA.
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Old 07-07-2008, 08:36 PM   #9
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Wow, pretty convincing stuff.

To play devil's advocate (and perhaps hopeless optimism on my part) let me disagree on a few points.

Racism:

I agree that the "blue collar" whites in Ohio are much like those in WV. However, unions are powerful an influential. I know several racist union workers (some in Kentucky) who definitely have a problem voting for a black man. However, due to the union leadership's support for Obama, they are going to begrudgingly vote for Obama, "in the interests of the union."

Will the Union/Blue collar vote be has high as if it were Hillary, probably not, but it will still vote overwhelmingly Democrat.

In addition, yes, the conditions aren't set for high turnout among the black community. But I have to imagine that this will be the most motivated the black community has ever been (electorally speaking).

I'd be willing to bet they turn out in record numbers (across the country). I would even bet a larger percentage of black folks vote in this election that white folks.

And the other group of voters I think you are neglecting to consider are young voters. Yes, historically speaking, the youth vote is highly unreliable. But Ohio has a large number of colleges and college student population. This group will be highly motivated this year. The fear of a failing economy when they graduate, more foreign conflict, and education costs on the rise are all on the minds of people my age (and younger).

I am currently working with the Obama campaign on registering youth/college voters. I did the same for Kerry. The difference is stagering. I would say the enthusiam and commitment to Barack Obama is 10 times that of John Kerry among these voters.

As I mentioned, the "black vote" and "youth vote" have been historically unreliable, but I think this is one area where Barack Obama is in fact unique.

It won't be easy, but I think Obama has the advantage in Ohio.
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Old 07-07-2008, 08:44 PM   #10
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I agree that the "blue collar" whites in Ohio are much like those in WV. However, unions are powerful an influential. I know several racist union workers (some in Kentucky) who definitely have a problem voting for a black man. However, due to the union leadership's support for Obama, they are going to begrudgingly vote for Obama, "in the interests of the union."


It's going to be close and on a personal note...I've enjoyed watching a few racists I know struggle with this scenario. Dems = pro-labor but Obama's black...what do I do?

:lol:

I think they stay home more or go McCain when it comes down to it but you've hit the nail on the head where the weakness is: labor

In addition, yes, the conditions aren't set for high turnout among the black community. But I have to imagine that this will be the most motivated the black community has ever been (electorally speaking).

I'd be willing to bet they turn out in record numbers (across the country). I would even bet a larger percentage of black folks vote in this election that white folks.


Even motivated people can't vote when the system is designed to oppress them. Again, with an isolated poor black population in Ohio the GOP will do its best to discredit and fight the black vote based on rules and regulations. No way on blacks voting more than whites. That would be a miracle. And remember, I don't subscribe to Obama-is-Jesus.



And the other group of voters I think you are neglecting to consider are young voters. Yes, historically speaking, the youth vote is highly unreliable. But Ohio has a large number of colleges and college student population. This group will be highly motivated this year. The fear of a failing economy when they graduate, more foreign conflict, and education costs on the rise are all on the minds of people my age (and younger).

Young people still don't vote even though they spiked about 13% nationally last election. Plus our state is overwhelmingly old. Face it CK, I'm the face of Ohio.



The young people who will vote for Obama have no interest in Ohio cuz they won't be here once that sheepskin hits their hands.
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Old 07-07-2008, 08:57 PM   #11
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Quote:

It's going to be close and on a personal note...I've enjoyed watching a few racists I know struggle with this scenario. Dems = pro-labor but Obama's black...what do I do?

:lol:

I think they stay home more or go McCain when it comes down to it but you've hit the nail on the head where the weakness is: labor
Perhaps his (presumably white) running mate can help counter that problem?

Say it's Jim Webb... The campaign will have Webb make speaches at Unions and in those areas.

At least then some of those people could put a white face to their vote...

Quote:
Even motivated people can't vote when the system is designed to oppress them. Again, with an isolated poor black population in Ohio the GOP will do its best to discredit and fight the black vote based on rules and regulations. No way on blacks voting more than whites. That would be a miracle. And remember, I don't subscribe to Obama-is-Jesus.
Good point, but many in the black community DO subscribe to the Obama-is-Jesus belief (not literally of course).

You're right that the cards are stacked against them, but I've seen it first hand.

I worked for a man named David Pepper who was running for Mayor of Cincinnati. His major competition was Mark Mallory. Pepper was leading in every poll up until the day of election. When the results came in, we were shocked. The black community out voted the white.

Granted, this is a smaller scale and an "urban only" election, but it was still very telling in terms of what a black candidate can do for black voter turnout.

Quote:
Young people still don't vote even though they spiked about 13% nationally last election. Plus our state is overwhelmingly old. Face it CK, I'm the face of Ohio.
True, but I believe that I read somewhere that Ohio, in terms of %, is one of the top 5 states in terms of student population. That's a lot of potential voters.

If you are the face of Ohio, then why the hell hasn't the revolution begun? :lol:

I'm assuming you meant in terms of demographics, not ideology....

Quote:
The young people who will vote for Obama have no interest in Ohio cuz they won't be here once that sheepskin hits their hands.
Sad but true.

Still, it doesn't matter if they have interest in Ohio - a vote is still a vote... Well, sometimes
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Old 07-08-2008, 10:16 AM   #12
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The Student Population:

Doesn't fly here. Obama beat Clinton in 5 out of 88 counties. He took Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Franklin (Columbus), Delaware (C-Bus suburb) Hamilton (Cincinnati) and Montgomery (Dayton).

Athens-OU: 53-45 Clinton
Miami-Miami: 57-41 Clinton
Seneca-BGSU: 58-39
Portage-Kent: 60-38

See, here ya have 4 rural universities not located within a city center (like CSU, Akron, YSU) and Obama got his doors blown off.

The election wasn't during finals either.

He lost Mahoning 64-34 with a large urban university (YSU) and a large overall black population (nearly 20%). And remember, those two stats are mutually exclusive. YSU, Akron, CSU all have roughly 5%-8% black student population despite being in the center of inner cities.

On this one...I don't see where the votes are gonna come from.

Rebuttal on said stats?
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Old 07-08-2008, 10:27 AM   #13
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The only thing I would point to would be the fact that young voters hardly ever participate in primaries for several reasons. For one, most college-age-voters are not registered with a party. In addition, most young voters have a limited interest in politics. They may gain interest in the campaign just weeks before the general election, when things start to "heat up."

I didn't vote in the Democratic primary of 2004 - and I was a registered Democrat, political science major, and member of the college democrats.

I just don't think primaries interest young voters very much. The differences between Clinton and Obama are not drastic enough to draw the attention of the casual political mind (AKA most young voters).

However, when the choice is between Obama and McCain, and a general election - the coverage is more thorough, the differences more visible, and stakes much higher - hence, more reason to vote.

So my conclusion on the stats posted would be that in the rural areas, like Athens, few college students voted in the primaries, but will likely vote in the general. I don't have the data to back it up, but it seems like a reasonable conclusion.
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Old 07-08-2008, 04:42 PM   #14
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Here's something I heard...(CK, maybe you can confirm or deny
this position, based on your research of the Obama campaign).

I heard that Obama wants to count benefits packages that some
employees receive as "income". For example, at the college I teach
at, we have a pretty good benefits package: health insurance, life
insurance, retirement (geez, I'm a teacher, we usually have pretty
good benefits). Rumor has it that we'd have to record this as
"income" (such as: add 6-8K to our "taxable income").

My questions:

Is this true...or has someone given me faulty information?

IF this is true...wouldn't this make the Unions, which have always
been a staple for Democrat candidates, turn AGAINST Obama, en masse?
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Old 07-08-2008, 04:50 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philabramoff View Post
Here's something I heard...(CK, maybe you can confirm or deny
this position, based on your research of the Obama campaign).

I heard that Obama wants to count benefits packages that some
employees receive as "income". For example, at the college I teach
at, we have a pretty good benefits package: health insurance, life
insurance, retirement (geez, I'm a teacher, we usually have pretty
good benefits). Rumor has it that we'd have to record this as
"income" (such as: add 6-8K to our "taxable income").

My questions:

Is this true...or has someone given me faulty information?

IF this is true...wouldn't this make the Unions, which have always
been a staple for Democrat candidates, turn AGAINST Obama, en masse?
There is no mention of that on his platform, website, or on any of the literature I have concerning his tax reform plans.

As I understand it, only those making $250K or more anually will see an increase in taxes of any kind.

One thingthat many people don't realize is that sort of plan will actually lower your taxes (unless oyu are filthy rich).

Example: Kentucky social work programs used to receive federal and state funding. Tax cuts on the wealthy made it impossible for the federal government to continue to contribute to the programs. The state was forced to pay the entire bill, and in turn had to raise taxes on ALL Kentucky citizens.

In other words, sometimes "tax cuts" aren't saving the tax payers any money at all.

By raising taxes on the most wealthy among us, the federal government will be able to contribute to certain state programs, and save the rest of us money in terms of state taxes.

Long-winded answer, and I know that's not what you asked, but that's how I understand his tax plan. Only $250K and up will see increases in any form of tax.
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