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Old 08-23-2008, 02:05 PM   #106
buckeyefan78
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Biden will bring PA and MI solidly into Obama's corner. Winning those two states will be enough to put him over the top in electoral votes. Biden will help in Ohio as well.
Obama had PA and MI to begin with. Too many Confederates in Ohio CK. Another Yankee bean eater ain't gonna fix that. Needed a grit man to even smell a chance at the WH.

But we've discussed all this before and the avatar bet is set.

I'll do a state-by-state final prediction along with Ohio's counties and a few other statistical breakdowns a week or two before the election and ask for your opposing numbers.

Book smarts/TV/whatever the hell else young people do vs. experience...round #1...:thumbsup2:
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Old 08-23-2008, 02:10 PM   #107
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Obama had PA and MI to begin with. Too many Confederates in Ohio CK. Another Yankee bean eater ain't gonna fix that. Needed a grit man to even smell a chance at the WH.
Joe Biden is huge with the unions. He is also Catholic. He doesn't "come from money," and only recently became wealthy. He does very well with "blue collar" types.

Joe Biden will also be a terrific attack dog against McCain. And I guarantee he is more articulate, intelligent and charismatic that any VP McCain will choose.

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Book smarts/TV/whatever the hell else young people do vs. experience...round #1...


I will admit, I am less confident than the last time we had this discussion. I still think Obama will win, but I think he has about a 75% chance of winning, where before I thought it was a lock.
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Old 08-23-2008, 02:17 PM   #108
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Joe Biden is huge with the unions. He is also Catholic. He doesn't "come from money," and only recently became wealthy. He does very well with "blue collar" types.

Joe Biden will also be a terrific attack dog against McCain. And I guarantee he is more articulate, intelligent and charismatic that any VP McCain will choose.





I will admit, I am less confident than the last time we had this discussion. I still think Obama will win, but I think he has about a 75% chance of winning, where before I thought it was a lock.
Being Catholic won't give him the bump that Clinton would have in Ohio...even if it does give SOME bump. He wasn't and isn't winning Ohio anyway.

Richardson could have locked New Mexico for him...one of the true swing states.

Biden's an East Coast guy. That just won't play with the over 40 Catholic women vote here in northeast Ohio/over to Toledo. You needed Clinton to bring those folks out to even have a shot to offset the folks south of Canton still waving the Confederate flag every morning before praying to Robert E. Lee.

Less confident now? So my prediction that the poll numbers would even out convinced ya eh?

Got cha...

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Old 08-23-2008, 02:23 PM   #109
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Being Catholic won't give him the bump that Clinton would have in Ohio...even if it does give SOME bump. He wasn't and isn't winning Ohio anyway.
Obama 269 McCain 256 Ties 13



Strong Dem (134)
Weak Dem (126)
Barely Dem (9)
Exactly tied (13)
Barely GOP (80)
Weak GOP (45)
Strong GOP (131)

There are a lot of "weak" and "barely GOP" votes out there.

He has a very good chance in Ohio.

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Richardson could have locked New Mexico for him...one of the true swing states.
Richardson will be campaigning regularly in NM for Obama. That's a lock for Obama

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That just won't play with the over 40 Catholic women vote here in northeast Ohio/over to Toledo.
Wait until Hillary's speach at the convention, then watch the bump Obama receives. He will be leading in Ohio after the convention.

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those folks out to even have a shot to offset the folks south of Canton still waving the Confederate flag every morning before praying to Robert E. Lee.
Yep, "those folks" south of Canton... like me... Big Confederate flag guy here
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Old 08-23-2008, 02:25 PM   #110
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I think someone with a college degree made that map.

'Nuff said.

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Old 08-23-2008, 02:27 PM   #111
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I think someone with a college degree made that map.

'Nuff said.



Mr. Buck doesn't have a college degree?
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Old 08-23-2008, 02:28 PM   #112
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Obama had PA and MI to begin with.
Even so, I think picking Biden he won't have to use up as many resources in PA especially. Be it TV, radio ads or appearances, those will reduce and he'll still carry these states, which would allow him more time in other states.

Clinton I agree would have been a good choice, I'm not so sure on Richardson. I don't think that any VP candidate would help him swing a state over to his direction, would be the main thing. But, I would have been alright with Richardson.

Biden's one of the few politicians I like, though, so I'm happy with the choice even if it's not the best thing electoral college wise.
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Old 08-23-2008, 02:39 PM   #113
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Mr. Buck doesn't have a college degree?
Yeah, 2 of 'em.

Still have the cancelled checks to prove I bought 'em...err...I mean earned 'em.



Like I said CK, Dems can't win certain states unless you're a Confederate. Hell, even in years they went with a Yankee-Confederate combo they lost...

2004 Kerry (Yankee bean) Edwards (grits)
1988 Dukakis (Yankee bean) Bentsen (grits)

You need a Confederate PRESIDENTIAL nominee to even have a chance to win the WH post 1965 Civil Rights Act...if you're a Dem.
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Old 08-24-2008, 12:45 AM   #114
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Fresh, not that I have a lot of stake here as I am not voting for either of the major party candidates, It appears that your bias has made you make a silly statement here. You said that there are a lot of weak and barely Republican votes there, and I agree. The fact is, however, that (according to your map and its figures) there are 135 weak or barely Democrat votes as opposed to 125 weak or barely Republican votes. Neither side has a lock in this election and neither impresses me very much. Neither will change the way things are done in Washington as all are either Washington insiders or wannabes.
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Old 08-24-2008, 04:30 PM   #115
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Good point cat.

The major difference is the "barely" states. The "barely" states are basically toss ups. Only one of the Dem states is in that category, while the repubs have over 80 electoral votes that could switch to the Dems this year.
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Old 08-25-2008, 02:04 AM   #116
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With Hillary doing her best to scuttle the Obama campaign so she will have a chance to win in 2012, how does he hold onto his "weak" states?
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Old 09-05-2008, 02:50 PM   #117
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Just an update here. My electoral map from a few months ago...

State by state comparison here. The following are COMPLETE locks.

McCain

Alabama - 9
Alaska - 3
Arizona - 10
Arkansas - 6
Florida - 27
Georgia - 15
Idaho - 4
Indiana - 11
Kansas - 6
Kentucky - 8
Louisiana - 9
Mississippi - 6
Missouri - 11
Montana - 3
Nebraska - 5
Nevada - 5
North Carolina - 15
North Dakota - 3
Ohio - 20
Oklahoma - 7
South Carolina - 8
South Dakota - 3
Tennessee - 11
Texas - 34
Utah - 5
Virginia - 13
West Virginia - 5
Wyoming - 3

265

Obama

California - 55
Connecticut - 7
D.C. - 3
Hawaii - 4
Illinois - 21
Maine - 4
Maryland - 10
Massachusetts - 12
Michigan -17
Minnesota - 10
New Jersey - 15
New York - 31
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania - 21
Rhode Island - 4
Vermont - 3
Washington - 11

235

Battleground

Colorado - 9
Delaware - 3
Iowa - 7
New Hampshire - 4
New Mexico 5
Wisconsin - 10

**********************************************************

New info on the polling coming out of the battlegrounds...

Colorado - Still too close to call even after convention
Delaware - looks to be OBAMA
Iowa - Obama with 9 point lead
New Hampshire - Still too close to call
New Mexico - Obama with a 4-5 point lead
Wisconsin - Obama with a 7 point lead

Have to say, the leads in Wisconsin, New Mexico and Iowa look to be locks for Obama. Delaware seems to be his as well. I'm still not calling them official locks but if he can hold there...

McCain 265

Obama 235 (Delaware 3, Iowa 7, New Mexico 5, Wisconsin 10) = new total of 260

Colorado and New Hampshire decide the election.
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Old 09-05-2008, 04:08 PM   #118
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LOCKS?

FLorida? Where McCain leads by 1 point?

Nevada? Where OBAMA leads by 3 points?

North Dakato? Where OBAMA leads by 3 points?

Ohio? Where Obama leads by 2 points?

Virginia? Which is a dead-heat, tied?

Sorry buck, but you can't call a state a "lock" when McCain is trailing, or his lead is within the margin of error.

At least 2 of your locks will go to Obama.

Even if your "locks" are correct...

NH has gone Democrat every election since 1992. Obama is currently leading, and they don't have the % of racists that are common in other "swing states." NH is a virtual lock.

Colorado is a lock as well. With the convention, the Obama campaign set up an army of organization. To get into his speech, you had to committ to campaigning for him. That's 70K + foot soldiers stationed in CO already, and he hasn't even broken the piggy bank yet.

You are also forgetting that Obama has raised more than twice the amount of money than McCain.

Wait until the commercials come out in full force.

I can't wait to see that avatar above your name
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Old 09-05-2008, 04:45 PM   #119
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I tried throwin ya a bone here CK.





I'd be concerned about Colorado. His numbers have him neck and neck after the convention. One would think if he was going to pull ahead it would have been right after that.

My locks are based on my facts, not your polls. We'll see which is more accurate.

:thumbup:
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Old 09-05-2008, 05:40 PM   #120
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With the convention, the Obama campaign set up an army of organization. To get into his speech, you had to committ to campaigning for him. That's 70K + foot soldiers stationed in CO already, and he hasn't even broken the piggy bank yet.

You are also forgetting that Obama has raised more than twice the amount of money than McCain.

Wait until the commercials come out in full force.
Which of course must translate to being the better candidate...

Once again, the Almighty Dollar rears it's ugly head in what's supposed to be a message to the people with a balanced take on each candidate's views.

I can see why some believe Obama has an edge in the arena of buying votes using the same smear tactics/misdirection ploys that is the staple of American Politics & Propaganda while McCain will run out of money to keep pace.

This is just about the competition between the upper crust as they vie for a better position, not about the people.

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