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Old 09-21-2016, 12:44 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 3 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 9-7. Season totals: 16-16, Pct. .500. Best Bets: 3-3, Pct. .500.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

Houston
13 (P), NEW ENGLAND 0 - The Texans are 0-3 lifetime in Foxboro by a combined 123-49, but the dates of those three games were December 17, December 10, and January 13 (the last a divisional playoff game), and not only that, but all three were in seasons (2016 and 2012) when they played their home games on natural grass. Can't see Jacoby Brissett even scoring against Houston's world-class defense.


SUNDAY

N.Y. GIANTS
28, Washington 13 (+4) - You could have totally ignored me the first two weeks and it wouldn't even have mattered! But it's tough to ignore The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name's 2-10 straight up and 4-8 against-the-line record in their last dozen in the shadow of the oil drums made famous by former New York City mayor Ed Koch, and their 2-11 outright and 4-9 pointwise marks since 2013 on the artificial carpet sure as hell matter. Maybe there is life for the Giants post-Tom Coughlin after all.

KANSAS CITY 17, N.Y. Jets 10 (+3 1/2) - The home team has won the last five meetings, yet the Chiefs have covered in five of the last six. But the Jets will have three extra days to prepare for this game, and both Week 1 Thursday night teams went on to win and cover in Week 2, so this could be a trend worth watching if the Jets and/or the Bills do cover this week.

Arizona 23, BUFFALO 20 (+5) - The Bills score 31 points last Thursday night - and what does Rex Ryan do? He fires his offensive coordinator! The Cardinals have not won in Buffalo since 1971 (at the dear departed War Memorial Stadium) but Arizona has won four in a row on artificial turf - hardly surprising in view of their league-trailblazing team speed - and by 120-58 at that. So let's split the difference here and go with the Cards to win but not cover.

CAROLINA 28, Minnesota 16 (+7 1/2) - Sam Bradford has been to the former Ericson Stadium twice (why do they have to keep changing these names?), in 2013 as a Ram and last year as an Eagle, and the result was a loss and a non-cover on both occasions, with Bradford getting outscored 57-33. Adrian Peterson is out again, and Minnesota is 23-68-1 straight up and 37-52-3 against the line dating all the way back to 2001 as a visitor outdoors. Plus the Vikings are on at least orange alert under the color-coded letdown alert system. So there is really nothing good to say about them in this spot.

JACKSONVILLE 24 (P), Baltimore 20 - Not ready to climb aboard the Baltimore bandwagon just yet, and the Ravens have non-covered their last three against Jacksonville and are 3-5 straight up on grass in 2015-16.

MIAMI 20, Cleveland 0 (+7) - Look, Ma - no arm and no talent: The Browns go from the sublime - Josh McCown - to the ridiculous - the how shall we say, diminutive Cody Koessler - at quarterback. After running an Elite Eight team and then a Final Four team from last year to the game's final play, both on the road, the Dolphins should come home and blast a team that has lost six of their last nine road games by 17 points or more.

CINCINNATI 31, Denver 14 (+3 1/2) - Let's see what Trevor Siemian does on the road - and on artificial turf, upon which the Broncos are 6-10 straight up and 5-11 against the line since 2012. Over the same period, Denver is 16-1 outright and 14-3 pointwise on the road on natural grass.

Oakland 20 (P), TENNESSEE 17 - The Raiders have a better run defense than those of Tennessee's first two opponents, having outperformed them in both yards allowed per game (104.9) and yards allowed per carry (4.1) a year ago, and the Titans have lost nine of their last ten at home, including their opener to the Shaun Hill-quarterbacked Vikings.

GREEN BAY 23, Detroit 16 (+8 1/2) - It will be a long time before the Lions get tired of beating the Packers in Wisconsin, after snapping a 24-game losing streak in the state last year, during which they were even 5-18-1 against the spread - and the play of Green Bay's offense in general, and the line in particular, has been decidedly shaky thus far in 2016. Take the points.

TAMPA BAY 16, Los Angeles 6 (+3 /12) - St. Louis-turned-L.A. has four straight wins both ways over the Bucs, but Case Keenum is still looking for his first touchdown of 2016, and his first points of any kind on the road. Jeff Fisher, who has badly mismanaged his quarterbacks as the Rams head coach (including trading up and mortgaging the future to draft an apparent bust), needs to swallow his immense pride and sign Michael Vick.

SEATTLE 10, San Francisco 3 (+10) - The Seahawks have covered nine in a row against the Niners, who have also dropped five straight on artificial turf, covering just once. But right now there is hardly a healthy skill-position player anywhere on the Seattle offense, so you must take the points.

PHILADELPHIA 30 (+3 1/2), Pittsburgh 17 - Last December, Jeffrey Lurie decided not to stick with a loser, firing Chip Kelly and restoring Howie Roseman to his general manager duties. So we will stick with a loser here: The Steelers - who have not won in Philadelphia since 1965! Upset special, and best bet.

San Diego 27 (+3), INDIANAPOLIS 20 - So far the Colts are certainly living up - or should I say down? - to my "Dunce Cap Team" expectations, and they have lost six of their last seven straight up and seven of their last eight against the spread to the Chargers. If it rains and the roof is closed, keep in mind that San Diego is a powerful 23-10-1 versus the points inside NFL domes going back to 1992

DALLAS 24, Chicago 13 (+7 1/2) - Not thrilled with laying this kind of wood on Dak Prescott, but even less thrilled with taking Brian Hoyer, and with the Bears on an indoor carpet (since 2013 Chicago is 2-5 straight up and 2-4-1 against the line on the former and 3-9 and 4-7-1 respectively on the latter, including 1-3 and 1-2-1 on rugs last year, when they were 5-3 and 5-2-1 overall on the road).


MONDAY NIGHT

NEW ORLEANS
38, Atlanta 31 (+3) - Super Bowl ring or not, Sean Payton could be on the hot seat if he starts 0-3 (not a single team has overcome such a start to make the playoffs since 1998) and the Falcons are 2-10 straight up in their last dozen at the Superdome.


BEST BETS: N.Y. GIANTS, CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA
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