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Old 09-03-2019, 07:22 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 1 NFL Pointspread Picks

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.


THURSDAY NIGHT

CHICAGO
31, Green Bay 24 (+3) - Even with Clay Matthews, the Packers hadn't finished in the top 10 in total defense since 2010, his second year. And now, without him? Bears minus three is an absolute bargain.


SUNDAY

N.Y. JETS
20, Buffalo 7 (+3) - Not only does New York State's Only Team have no prime time games this year, but all of their games are in the early time slot except for their Thanksgiving Day game at Jerry World. That is a sign that they are expected to be a very bad football team - and they are not likely to "disappoint."

DALLAS 21, N.Y. Giants 10 (+7) - The Giants have had their problems inside NFL domes - 3-11 straight up, 6-7-1 against the spread since 2014. And the decision to go with Eli Manning over Daniel Jones at quarterback just goes to show how hidebound their organization is - and this inherent dislike for change will help see to it that the Cowboys' four-game win-and-cover streak over them will not change.

PHILADELPHIA 33, Washington 17 (+8 1/2) - Carson Wentz, a notorious front-runner, has a history of blowing out overmatched opponents, especially at home - and the Eagles have four straight wins and covers over The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name by a combined 116-54.

CAROLINA 28 (+3), L.A. Rams 24 - The Rams have dropped six of their last seven both ways versus the Panthers and have not won in Carolina since 2001. Upset special.

Kansas City 34, JACKSONVILLE 31 (+4) - Until their Week 14 game at New England, the suspect (to say the least!) Chiefs defense doesn't face any really elite offenses - so most of their games will have final scores like this instead of last year's 54-51 loss to the Rams. KC's four-game winning streak in the series and 3-1 record against the spread send mixed signals.

Baltimore 31, MIAMI 3 (+5) - The Ravens have covered eight in a row against the Dolphins (winning seven of the games straight up) and have outscored Miami 78-6 in the last two. And what's worse - taking a knee during the national anthem, or taking a knee during an entire season?

CLEVELAND 23, Tennessee 20 (+6) - The Browns are impossible to trust laying such a number in September, given their league-worst 13-40-1 straight-up record in that month since 2003, including 1-14-1 in Week 1, and 5-11 against the spread. Underdogs offer a lot of value bets on opening day, and this opening day is no exception.

MINNESOTA 27, Atlanta 21 (+4) - The Vikings have won the last three meetings, all as underdogs. Now they're favored. Who knows? Maybe they will win the hallowed coin toss to start overtime, and go right down the field and score a touchdown.

L.A. CHARGERS 24, Indianapolis 0 (+6 1/2) - The week after Joe Pisarcik's "Fumble" in 1978, hundreds of Giants fans burned their tickets and mailed the ashes to Wellington Mara in a bedpan. Colts fans should be doing the same thing now. Jim Irsay, who won't have a chapter dedicated to him in Profiles In Courage: Volume 2 if such a book is ever written, should have contacted Colin Kaepernick's agent the instant Andrew Luck shocked the world by announcing his retirement. Indy's recent form on opening day is not encouraging either - five straight losses, 0-4-1 against the spread, and neither is their 3-12 straight-up and 6-9 spread record since 2017 as a visitor outdoors. There is a word for Jacoby Brissett, but this is a family web site.

SEATTLE 16, Cincinnati 13 (+9 1/2) - Another Week 1 underdog play. The Bengals have won three of the last four meetings (three of which were decided by a field goal and the fourth was won by Cincinnati 34-12), and are 2-0-2 against the spread - and Seattle's run-first, pass-last-if-at-all offense is not conducive to covering big spreads. Take the points.

TAMPA BAY 34, San Francisco 27 (+1) - I guarantee that at least one of the Fox pregame crew picks the 49ers as his "upset special." But how good a pick is Kyle Shanahan in the first nine weeks of the season when he's 2-16 in his first nine games so far?

ARIZONA 20 (+2 1/2), Detroit 17 - To say that the Lions don't travel well would be the eternal understatement: They are 7-37 straight up and 17-26-1 against the spread in the Mountain and Pacific time zones dating all the way back to 1983! Detroit is also 24-63 straight up and 37-47-3 against the spread since 2001 as a visitor on the grass.

NEW ENGLAND 27, Pittsburgh 13 (+6) - The last three regular-season games between these two teams have all been in Pittsburgh - and the Steelers won only one of them. At New England, the Steelers have lost the last three by a combined 116-69.


MONDAY NIGHT

NEW ORLEANS
31, Houston 14 (+7) - Drinkers of Houston's Kool Aid will tell you that this number is too high - but the home team is four-for-four both ways in the lifetime series by a combined 118-59.

OAKLAND 24, Denver 17 (P) - This game was taken off the board for a time when they were not sure about Drew Lock's injury status. When it became known that Lock has a serious thumb injury that will keep him out of quite possibly the entire season, the game went back on, at essentially the same price. Not that it would have mattered, with the home team riding a six-game winning streak, with the only non-cover therein coming when the Broncos won but didn't cover at home in Week 2 last year.


BEST BETS: CAROLINA, BALTIMORE, L.A. CHARGERS

Last edited by Anthony; 09-04-2019 at 01:32 PM.
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Old 09-04-2019, 10:33 AM   #2
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I think you put too much emphasis on Clay Matthews. They let him walk, he's declined quite a bit with age. He won't be the reason the Packers struggle.
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Old 09-07-2019, 01:10 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anthony View Post
bears minus three is an absolute bargain.
10-3 #gpg xd
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Old 09-11-2019, 11:07 AM   #4
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I hope you're wrong about Matthews, Marc! I think he's in the sweet spot and will be great this year.
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