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Old 11-27-2004, 02:17 PM   #1
Alex
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Default New System

I don't know if any of you remember, but last season I came up with a system, entitled "Alex's System" that awards strength of schedule and, of course, wins. I tweaked it to also award losses to Top 25 teams. In short, teams are awarded points based on wins based on the quality of the opponent. The points vary depending on the opponent:

Win vs a Top 5 team- 20
Win vs a Top 10 team- 16
Win vs a Top 25 team- 12
Win vs a Top 50 team- 8
Win vs a Top 75 team- 4
Win vs a 1-A team- 2
Win vs a 1-AA team- 1

Loss vs a Top 5 team- 3
Loss vs a Top 10 team- 1
Loss vs a Top 25 team- .5

The rank of opponent counts as of the game, i.e. Auburn's victory over LSU would count as a Top 5 win since that was LSU's position at that time.

Here are how the schedules of Auburn, Oklahoma and USC match up:

*Note*- For USC's game against Virginia Tech, the points will be averaged between that game and their lowest ranked opponent.

Auburn (11-0, 8-0)
Louisiana-Monroe- 1
Mississippi State- 1
LSU- 20
The Citadel- 1
Tennessee- 16
Louisiana Tech- 4
Arkansas- 4
Kentucky- 2
Ole Miss- 4
Georgia- 16
Alabama- 8

Total- 77

Oklahoma (11-0, 8-0)
Bowling Green- 4
Houston- 2
Oregon- 8
Texas Tech- 8
Texas- 16
Kansas State- 4
Oklahoma State- 12
Texas A&M- 12
Nebraska- 4
Baylor- 2

Total- 72

USC (12-0, 8-0)
Virginia Tech- 12
Colorado State- 2
Brigham Young- 4
Stanford- 8
Cal- 16
Arizona State- 12
Washington- 2
Washington State- 4
Oregon State- 8
Arizona- 2
Notre Dame- *8*
UCLA- *8*

Total- 79

Well, the system says USC vs Auburn in the Orange Bowl pending USC's games vs Notre Dame and UCLA. The system isn't perfect, there were a handful of borderline teams between being Top 50 or Top 75. A play off is still the best way to go but awarding strength of schedule is important. An 11-0 SEC team with wins against The Citadel, La-Lafayette and Houston should not be rewarded as a Big Ten or Pac-10 team with wins against Virginia, Syracuse and Kent State. This takes into effect the conference schedule as well and showed that despite a weak OOC schedule, Auburn's conference schedule was more challenging.

Feel free to comment. I'm not afraid of criticism.
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Old 11-27-2004, 02:31 PM   #2
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I might give a few 'bonus points' for wins on the road. A road win against a Top 5 team is much harder to achieve than a home win against a Top 5 team.

Also, what are you using to determine a team's rank? Just curious as you don't mention it here.
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Old 11-27-2004, 02:41 PM   #3
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where would michigan be at in ur thing?
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Old 11-27-2004, 03:24 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally posted by doublee
Also, what are you using to determine a team's rank? Just curious as you don't mention it here.
I attempted to ballpark as best I could using their record and who they had previously played at the time of the game against AU/USC/OU. It is by no means a perfect system and would need some "official" rankings for all of the 1-A teams to come close. If you know of a site that others weekly ranks of all 1-A teams, I would be more than happy to re-compute the rankings.

True about the road wins, doublee. This is just a rough system at this point. I'll work on miniature details like that between now and after the conference championship ranks.

Here's a rough look at how Michigan ranks:

Michigan (9-2, 7-1)
Miami of Ohio- 8
Notre Dame- 0
San Diego State- 2
Iowa- 12
Indiana- 4
Minnesota- 8
Illinois- 2
Purdue- 12
Michigan State- 8
Northwestern- 4
Ohio State- 0

Total- 60

Northwestern is a swing game. When they played Michigan, they were 5-4 (4-2). I placed them in the Top 75, if they are in the Top 50, Michigan has 64.
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Old 11-27-2004, 03:59 PM   #5
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So would the point total change throughout the year?

If you beat the number one team in the country at the beginning of the year, and they fall out of the top 25, what point do you give?
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Old 11-27-2004, 05:00 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally posted by G-MenNMetsfan
So would the point total change throughout the year?

If you beat the number one team in the country at the beginning of the year, and they fall out of the top 25, what point do you give?
Yes, as each game is played.

Teams would not lose points based on what happens to your opponent. If you beat a Top 10 team in September and they are below .500 at the end of the season, it won't count against you.
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