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Old 10-08-2014, 05:19 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 6 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 9-6. Season totals: 40-35-1, Pct. .533. Best Bets: 6-9, Pct. .400.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

Indianapolis
27, HOUSTON 17 (+2 1/2) - So, Arian Foster has joined the growing chorus of players who apparently would gladly agree to the 18-game schedule in exchange for getting rid of these Thursday night games. And here's an interesting fact: After losing the first two such games of his NFL career, Andrew Luck is 15-1 straight up and 13-3 against the spread since when facing teams that finished with losing records that year - and it's pretty safe to assume that the wins and covers over Jacksonville and Tennessee that Luck has already registered this season will make it 17-1 and 15-3, and that another win and cover here will at least likely improve those respective records to 18-1 and 16-3.


SUNDAY

Denver
31, N.Y. JETS 10 (+7 1/2) - Yes, it is the Broncos on the rug - 9-15 straight up and 7-17 against the spread since 2007 - but also since 2007, teams getting shut out are 10-28 straight up and 15-23 against the spread in their next game, and right now it doesn't even matter whether it is Geno Smith or Michael Vick who gets to pilot the league-trailing Jets passing offense.

New England 21, BUFFALO 16 (+3) - This season and last combined, the Patriots are 4-2 on the road on artificial turf, compared with 1-5 on natural grass - and they're 20-1 outright and 13-7-1 pointwise in their last 21 vs. New York State's Only NFL Team. And can't see Steve Gostkowski going 0-for-3 on field goals (and losing his job) the way Alex Henery did last week, allowing the Bills to win a game they had no business winning.

Green Bay 24, MIAMI 23 (+3 1/2) - I know it was against the Raiders, but that was a dominating win by Miami in London two weeks ago, and the Packers could be at risk for a letdown after three straight division games, so the always-inviting three-and-a-half point number may be worth taking, especially with this being an early-time-slot game in the South Florida heat (so far in 2014 the Dolphins have won - impressively - over New England at home in the early time slot, and lost - badly - to Kansas City at home in the late time slot).

Baltimore 16, TAMPA BAY 6 (+3) - Mike Glennon regressed somewhat last week, and badly late in the game, but apparently he will keep Tampa Bay's starting quarterback job for at least one more game; but after the Ravens shut him down here, Lovie Smith will probably go back to Josh McCown, whose right thumb should be healed enough for him to return following the bye the Bucs have next week.

Pittsburgh 20 (P), CLEVELAND 17 - Since there are no points to lay on them against the Browns for a change, it's hard to go past the Steelers and their 19-2 record in their last 21 versus Cleveland straight up.

CINCINNATI 34, Carolina 13 (+6 1/2) - The week's best bet, despite the simply awful value this line offers. The Bengals are 11-1 both ways in their last dozen in the City of Satan, while Carolina is 6-20 straight up and 8-18 against the line since 2008 as a visitor on the carpet. It won't even be close - so the approximately four points too many by which Cincy is favored will prove meaningless.

TENNESSEE 16, Jacksonville 3 (+6) - Jake Locker is questionable due to a concussion sustained on what he and the Titans claim was a dirty hit by Cleveland linebacker Chris Kirksey; Locker did not return, and Tennessee ended up blowing a 25-point lead and losing with Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback for the biggest collapse at home in NFL history. But they might not even need Locker to win and cover at the expense of a Jaguars team that took a half-game "lead" over idle Oakland in the race for the top pick in the 2015 draft with their non-touchdown-scoring loss at home to Pittsburgh - and don't bet against it turning out to be a "lead" that Jacksonville never relinquishes.

MINNESOTA 21 (+3), Detroit 19 - At this point, Jim Caldwell might as well bite the bullet and rest Calvin Johnson. Reggie Bush is also questionable - and the Lions have been more than questionable outdoors for the longest time (remember that the Vikings are playing outdoors at home this season and next), and can't be trusted to win two in a row in that venue after getting by the hapless Jets at open-air MetLife Stadium two weeks ago. Teddy Bridgewater is expected back for Minnesota.

San Diego 24, OAKLAND 20 (+7 1/2) - I'm guessing that Tony Sparano didn't take the Oakland job with nothing more than an interim gig in mind, and the Chargers are 9-17 straight up in fatigue games so take the points.

ATLANTA 33, Chicago 23 (+3) - It's back in the dome for the Falcons - and at this number, Matt Ryan and his 39-9 lifetime straight-up record at home is pretty hard to pass up. The home team is also riding a four-game win-and-cover streak in the series, and this will be Chicago's first tilt this season indoors, where Chicago took an 0-for-3 collar both ways in 2013.

Washington 16 (+3 1/2), ARIZONA 13 - They didn't even cover the spread, much less win the game, but it was still a moral victory of sorts for The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name against the defending champs on Monday night; and they have an active streak of eight consecutive victories - none of them moral - over the Cardinals, who may be down to Logan Thomas at quarterback, who had to finish last week's game in Denver after Drew Stanton sustained a concussion (which it is not "politically correct" to rush a player back from) and Carson Palmer is still "week-to-week" courtesy of his ongoing shoulder malady.

SEATTLE 34, Dallas 7 (+8) - All week long we have been hearing about how the Cowboys are so much better on the road than at home all of a sudden. The Seahawks will silence that talk this week - and in devastating fashion as they send the road team in this series to its seventh straight loss.

N.Y. Giants 31 (+3), PHILADELPHIA 16 - So far this year, the 4-1 Eagles have been proving the adage that it is better to be lucky than good true, in spades - they have been outgained by triple-digit yards in each of their last three games (1,384 yards to 944 combined in the trio), and averaged an ultraelectronmicroscopic 8.6 yards per completion last week while nearly outdoing Tennessee for the biggest blown lead of all time at home. Only the serious MCL sprain in Rashad Jennings' left knee that will keep him out of this game (and very likely next week's game at Dallas as well) keeps the Giants out of best-bet territory.


MONDAY NIGHT

San Francisco
16, ST. LOUIS 10 (+3 1/2) - Let's see Austin Davis pass for 375 yards against a real defense. The NFC West will really begin to take the shape that just about everyone thought it would have this week.


BEST BETS: CINCINNATI, ATLANTA, SEATTLE
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