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Old 10-05-2016, 09:23 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 5 NFL Pointspread Picks

Season totals: 22-26, Pct. .458. Best Bets: 4-5, Pct. .444.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

SAN FRANCISCO
13 (+2 1/2), Arizona 6 - If not for a brain freeze by a zebra, the 49ers probably would have had at least a 17-0 lead on the Cowboys last week - maybe that's what Jaquiski Tartt, who was on the business end of same, gets for having such a name? - but Blaine Gabbert will have a rare lead at the quarterback position before this game even kicks off, as "the other Carson" - Carson Palmer - has already been ruled out of this game under the NFL's hallowed "concussion protocol," which is only marginally less odious than the Protocols of the Elders of Zion.


SUNDAY

PITTSBURGH
31, N.Y. Jets 10 (+7) - As bums at quarterback go, Ryan Fitzpatrick is somewhere between the Bowery and the Tenderloin - and it has always been Skid Row for the Jets in Pittsburgh, where they're 1-9 straight up and 3-7 against the spread lifetime. In the words of WFAN's Tim Martin, "It's a blowout ... it's a blowout."

MIAMI 20, Tennessee 13 (+3 1/2) - The Dolphins wouldn't dare lose at home, or even not cover, during the High Holy Days. And just in case you get the idea that Miami might win but not cover, the last three meetings in this series have been decided by 28, 34, and 12 points.

New England 23, CLEVELAND 14 (+10) - And watch: Everyone will "come up to me" all week and tell me how "brave" I am for taking the points - and I will tell them that New England is 3-10 against the line since 2013 as a visitor on the grass, and 2-13 straight up coming off a shutout loss dating all the way back to 1968! Not sure I'd want to bet brick-and-mortar money on it though.

Philadelphia 33, DETROIT 17 (+2) - Questions, questions, questions - and they all point to the Eagles regardless of the answers: Who's playing better in 2016 - the Philadelphia offense or the Jim Schwartz-coordinated defense? And speaking of Schwartz, what represents a stronger revenge motive: Schwartz's getting fired after taking the Lions from 0-16 to the playoffs in three years, or for the game the Eagles mailed in at Silverdome II last Thanksgiving, their first loss in franchise history on that holiday? And which is a stronger trend: Philadelphia's co-league-leading 21-6 straight-up record coming off a bye, or Detroit's 6-12 spread record in fatigue games, which is merely tied for third worst in the NFL? Even the 3-6 outright and 2-6-a pointwise records the Eagles have logged since 2012 inside NFL domes fades with the knowledge that Carson Wentz played his home games in a dome (the Fargodome) while in college. Two "electoral votes" for Pennsylvania this week.

Chicago 20 (+4), INDIANAPOLIS 14 - The Bears are lossless and noncoverless - I think I just invented two words! - at Indianapolis in franchise history, going 3-0 there both ways, and by a combined 77-43 at that. And the blame game has already begun in the land of "Gentlemen, start your engines," starring Reggie Wayne - who apparently needs to be reminded that player-personnel decisions are not part of his job title - and the Colts front office, whose job titles do carry such responsibilities.

BALTIMORE 30, Washington 24 (+4) - The Ravens aren't very value-friendly at this number, but The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name has an NFC East biggie coming up against the Eagles at home next week and they haven't beaten Cleveland 1.0/Baltimore on the road since 1985. Can't see Washington winning, or even covering, two in a row on artificial turf.

MINNESOTA 28, Houston 21 (+6) - Another home favorite that offers poor value, but the Vikings look scary in their refurbished dome and they've won and covered three out of three against Houston, including - wouldn't you know - a 28-21 win over the Texans in their lone home game in the series.

DALLAS 24, Cincinnati 13 (+1) - Injuries are starting to catch up on the Bengals - the Eifert Tower has fallen! - who are 1-5 straight up lifetime in God's Country and have been outscored 189-112 there including the win. They're also 7-15 straight up in their last 22 in domes. The debate that will take place in Dallas when Tony Romo is ready to return should be monumental.

DENVER 27, Atlanta 17 (+6) - Sometimes teams outrightly benefit from an injury - and Trevor Siemian's shoulder injury last week might be one of them: As the result of that injury, Paxton Lynch, who might actually offer a long-term solution for the Broncos at quarterback where Siemian almost certainly did not, now gets to make his case for the starting job. And Matty Ice tends to melt outdoors (where the Falcons are 6-14 straight up and 9-11 against the line since 2013) and on grass (upon which Atlanta is 5-11 outright and 8-8 pointwise since that same year).

LOS ANGELES 16, Buffalo 10 (+2 1/2) - I'm surprised that the Bills owners didn't vote against the Rams' franchise relocation - because now they have to play this game in Los Angeles, where they're 0-2 in franchise history by a combined 76-41, instead of in St. Louis, where they're 2-0 by a combined 60-31. Buffalo is also 34-68 straight up and 43-57-2 against the line since 1995 as a visitor on the grass.

OAKLAND 35, San Diego 20 (+4) - Why aren't the Raiders favored by a touchdown here? Don't ask - but do bet accordingly. This is the best bet of the week not involving a team from Pennsylvania.

GREEN BAY 20, N.Y. Giants 17 (+7) - Throw out Monday night: Both starting Giants running backs were out. But don't throw out the last three times they have played the Packers, which produced three Giant wins in which they outscored the Pack 102-43. Under this set of circumstances, expecting them to cover a seven-point spread is hardly too much to ask - and the tundra at Lambeau Field isn't frozen yet, is it?


MONDAY NIGHT

CAROLINA 17, Tampa Bay 13 (+7) - The aforementioned concussion protocol figures to claim Cam Newton as well, meaning that Derek Anderson, dubbed "The Joker" because he was once spotted on camera laughing on the sidelines late in a Monday night game in which his team was getting blown out, gets the start - and that fact takes on added significance when it is brought up that Carolina's current six-game winning streak over Tampa Bay includes a 5-1 spread record that had The Joker at quarterback in the lone non-cover, also at home.


BEST BETS: PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA, OAKLAND
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