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Old 10-31-2018, 12:50 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 9 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 9-5. Season totals: 49-67-5, Pct. .434. Best Bets: 12-11-1, Pct. .521.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

Oakland
24 (+3 1/2), SAN FRANCISCO 13 - Tuesday's trading deadline came and went with no more wrist-cutting by the Raiders. And Derek Carr getting three and a half against C.J. Beathard? I'll take that any day - including Thursday.


SUNDAY

MIAMI
27, N.Y. Jets 17 (+3) - Sam Darnold should open up a bakery with all the turnovers he makes - and this is another one of these situations in which a team lost the first meeting at home to a division rival and now has to play that rival on the road. The Jets also remained on the skids on grass last week, dropping to 10-23 straight up and 12-21 against the line on it since 2011.

Chicago 24, BUFFALO 0 (+8) - With Derek Anderson in the concussion protocol and Nathan Peterman, who is on pace to bury fellow Bill Gary Marangi's record for worst passer rating in NFL history (from 1976) getting the start, it looks as if a goose-egg is in the offing for Khalil Mack and the Bears. And Buffalo's refusal to bring Colin Kaepernick in is either bare-faced tanking to get the top pick in the 2019 draft, or something else.

Atlanta 27 (+2), WASHINGTON 20 - Since 1990, only 8% of all teams that started 3-5 have made the playoffs, compared with a much more manageable 32% of teams starting 4-4 - and Elizabeth Warren's Team has dropped five in a row to the Falcons, and Washington's 8-16 straight-up record in fatigue games (Atlanta had a bye last week) is fourth worst in the league, its 7-17 spread record, second worst.

CAROLINA 31, Tampa Bay 17 (+6 1/2) - By January Dirk Koetter will be Tampa Bay's former head coach - and by April or so Jameis Winston will be the team's former quarterback. And the Bucs are 2-8 straight up and 3-7 against the spread versus the Panthers since 2013.

Kansas City 34, CLEVELAND 14 (+9) - How can you trust the Browns amid all their chaos? The Chiefs are 5-2-1 against the spread this year, with both of their pointwise losses coming against Denver.

BALTIMORE 24, Pittsburgh 10 (+3) - Big Ben broke the index finger on his non-throwing hand last week - and again, a team that lost the first meeting to a division rival at home and now has to play them on the road.

MINNESOTA 23, Detroit 20 (+5) - The Vikings aren't exactly scoring points in bunches, and the smallest home advantage in football is when two dome teams play each other. Take the points.

DENVER 30, Houston 17 (+1) - The only reason the Texans are in first place in the AFC South is because no one else in the division wants it - and they have struggled mightily of late both on grass (2-9 straight up, 2-8-1 against the spread since 2016) and in cold weather, the official season for which begins with this week's games: Houston has dropped four straight at northern, outdoor sites in November or later by a combined 42 points, and is 7-15 straight up in games at such sites dating back to 2005.

SEATTLE 27, L.A. Chargers 24 (+1 1/2) - The Chargers may be getting overhyped, while Seattle is vastly exceeding expectations this year and has played everybody tough, and with six of their last nine games at home, the Seahawks are well primed for a strong late run. The "12th Man" wins this.

NEW ORLEANS 42 (+1), L.A. Rams 28 - The week's best bet. The Rams have been living on borrowed time for the past five weeks, and the home team in this series has won and covered in the last five meetings, including a 27-16 outright upset by the Rams as a 5 1/2-point underdog in 2013 and a 31-21 outright upset by the Rams as a 13-point underdog in 2011, along with 31-13 and 49-21 wins by the Saints at home in 2010 and 2016 respectively. You can't get much more lopsided domination by the home team than that.

NEW ENGLAND 34, Green Bay 23 (+6 1/2) - One close loss on the road does not convince me that the Packers are to be trusted on the road. And that close loss was on natural grass. This one's on artificial turf, where Green Bay is 11-19 straight up and 10-20 against the spread since 2012.


MONDAY NIGHT

DALLAS
24, Tennessee 7 (+4 1/2) - Both teams are coming off a bye, but the Cowboys (20-9 straight up, 20-7-2 against the spread, the latter tied for the NFL's best) are quite a bit better at doing that than the Titans (16-13 outright and 15-13-1 spreadwise). And there is nothing good about Tennessee either on the carpet (4-13 both ways since 2013) or indoors (3-11 straight up and 5-9 against the spread since 2012).


BEST BETS: BALTIMORE, NEW ORLEANS, DALLAS
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