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Old 09-17-2019, 02:10 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 3 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 5-10-1. Season totals: 13-17-2, Pct. .438. Best Bets: 1-4-1, Pct. .250.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

Tennessee
20, JACKSONVILLE 9 (+1 1/2) - Besides having beaten the Jags four in a row (and 3-0-1 against the spread in the quartet), The Team That Should Be Known As The Nashville Oilers would have the check mark at the quarterback position on Jimmy The Greek's board (featured on the CBS pre-game show in the late '70s) if he were still alive - and that check mark is far more important today than when The Greek and his board were around.


SUNDAY

NEW ENGLAND
35, N.Y. Jets 3 (+20 1/2) - The Jets have neglected to score a touchdown in any of their last three at Occam's Razor (losing 38-3 there last year, 26-6 in 2017, and 41-3 in 2016) - and Luke Falk, who is even worse than Gardner Minshew if that's possible, will be their quarterback until Sam Darnold can come back from his bout of mononucleosis after Trevor Siemian suffered an injury whose gruesomeness rivaled that of the one Gerald Willhite got in 1987, also on Monday night, which contributed to the phasing out of the old-school AstroTurf. But the slow start the Patriots got off to last week against Miami should give you cause for pause before emptying the entire contents of your 401k and betting it on New England.

TAMPA BAY 23, N.Y. Giants 20 (+6 1/2) - The inevitable has just happened: Eli Manning has been benched (will a trade follow?). Look for Daniel Jones to lead the Giants to at least their fifth straight cover at The Ghost Of The Sombrero in his NFL debut.

PHILADELPHIA 27, Detroit 23 (+7 1/2) - I won't cue up Joe Biden's record player because I would only sound like a broken record bringing up Detroit's dumpster fire on grass and outdoors since 2001. So I will instead bring up the Eagles going 1-3-1 versus the points against the Lions in the last five meetings, the lone cover coming in a blizzard in 2012, plus the blizzard of injuries to the Philly receivers - and with a game in Lambeau against Aaron Rodgers, who has absolutely "pwned" them as they say these days, next Thursday night (meaning their injured receivers almost certainly won't play in that game either), the Eagles are staring down the barrel of 1-3 unless they win this.

BUFFALO 24, Cincinnati 14 (+4 1/2) - Unless the Bills are so hubristic that they're looking ahead to next week's home game against the Patriots, I can't see this being less than a two-possession game.

Atlanta 23 (+3), INDIANAPOLIS 17 - Jimmy The Greek's check mark at the quarterback position again - and this time you're getting points with it. And the Falcons' versatile policy of sometimes keeping their roof open and sometimes closing it at home gives them an advantage in these type of situations.

GREEN BAY 34, Denver 16 (+8) - The Broncos have never - repeat, never - won in Green Bay or Milwaukee (0-5-1 straight up, 0-6 against the line) and have been outscored therein by a combined 103 points (202-99). And move over, Saints and Bears: The Packers and Cowboys have replaced you at the top of the NFC heap.

MINNESOTA 30, Oakland 13 (+7 1/2) - I genuinely doubt that the Raiders will finish over .500 this year - and dating back to 2003 Oakland is 2-30 straight up and 11-21 against the line as a visitor on the carpet.

KANSAS CITY 21, Baltimore 16 (+7) - Since Cleveland 1.0 moved to Baltimore and became the Ravens in 1996, the home team in this series is 2-7 both straight up and against the spread - and like Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes got off to a slow start last week, as the Chiefs were outscored 10-0 in the first quarter, when Mahomes had a passer rating of 66.7. Baltimore defense keeps it close.

DALLAS 51, Miami 3 (+20 1/2) - Show some class, Dallas - especially when the Dolphins have lost six in a row on artificial turf by a combined 217-105, and their last three indoors by a combined 110-64. And that's when they actually had a team.

ARIZONA 24 (+3), Carolina 23 - Home team has been the bully in this series of late (6-0 straight up, 5-0-1 against the spread in the last half dozen) while the Panthers have been real wimps inside NFL domes for quite some time (12-22 outright and 13-20-1 pointwise since 2008). And I really like Arizona's spunk. Upset special.

L.A. CHARGERS 20, Houston 14 (+3) - Ever since they replaced their original grass surface at Reliant Stadium with artificial turf after their first home game of 2016, the Texans have been most unreliable on grass, going 4-10 straight up and 3-10-1 against the line thereon. And since deciding to keep the roof closed nearly all the time (it has been closed for 15 consecutive home games), they have also struggled outdoors, going 7-15 straight up and 7-13-2 against the line in outdoor games, also since 2016. Melvin Gordon is apparently determined to pull a Le'Veon Bell and sit out the entire season - but Austin Ekeler is on pace to just barely miss a thousand-yard season in Gordon's absence (124 yards in two games works out to 992 yards for the year). Chargers have also dominated the lifetime series - 5-1 straight up, 6-0 against the spread.

SAN FRANCISCO 27, Pittsburgh 0 (+7) - One would think that the "social justice"-obsessed Rooneys would have signed Colin Kaepernick already in the wake of Big Ben's season-ending (and some are speculating, career-ending) injury. But Kaepernick or not, the home team in this series has won and covered four in a row by a combined 130-51. The 49ers, who were the last team not to allow an opponent to cross mid-field in an entire game (in 2000), might do it again here.

SEATTLE 24, New Orleans 6 (+5 /2) - Still another home-dominated series - five in a row, both ways - and Jimmy The Greek and his gone-but-not-forgotten check mark at quarterback comes into play here as well.

CLEVELAND 31 (+2 1/2), L.A. Rams 28 - All of Cleveland's bad trends are shrinking in the rear-view mirror now. But the Browns defense is gonna need to put their big-boy pants on in this spot, as Jared Goff is a huge step up from who they have faced in their first two games. Don't like taking two and a half, but still.


MONDAY NIGHT

WASHINGTON
14 (+4), Chicago 13 - Mitchell Trubisky, who was drafted eight spots ahead of Patrick Mahomes in 2017, has generated 19 points in his first two games, while Mahomes has rung up 68 - one more reminder of what a colossal blunder the Bears made. And they have lost to The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name seven times in a row!


BEST BETS: GREEN BAY, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO

Last edited by Anthony; 09-24-2019 at 06:53 PM.
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