NFL Pointspread Contest: Week 1

[Anthony]

I've been yearning to do this for three years now - so, without further adieu, I hereby announce the start of a new Pick 'Em Contest - one that invites posters to pick the NFL games against the spread rather than straight up, if you dare.

Here's how it works: Whenever possible, all of the games scheduled for that week will be included in the contest. The opening line for each game posted at the Scores And Odds web site will form the basis for the picks. On occasion this service will keep a game off the board initially - generally due to injuries etc. When this arises, a line from an alternate source may be used instead; this will be noted in the thread that starts that week's contest. Rarely, even the latter will not be available until very late in the week, in which event the game in question will be omitted from the contest due to time constraints.

In addition, each poster is required to designate three picks as Best Bets, which will be used to break ties between those who have the same spread records in a given week. Pushes against the spread count as ties (half a win, half a loss) in determining both the overall and Best Bet records.

To encourage as many posters as possible to participate every week, 100 points will be awarded each week from Week 1 through Week 9, to be divided as follows:

..................................Number of Pickers.....................
Finish........8 or More.....7.......6.......5.......4.......3.......2
1st.................57..........58.....59......60......61.....65......75
2nd................18..........18......19......20......21.....23.....25
3rd..................9...........9........9......10......11.....12
4th..................6...........6........6.......6.......7
5th..................4...........4........4.......4
6th..................3...........3........3
7th..................2...........2
8th..................1

The above point values double for Weeks 10 through 13 and triple for Weeks 14 through 17, to help keep everyone in contention longer into the season.

Here are the opening lines for Week 1:

Thursday, September 9:
NEW ENGLAND 3 over Indianapolis (9:05 PM EDT)

Saturday, September 11:
Tennessee 2 over MIAMI

Sunday, September 12:
PITTSBURGH 3 1/2 over Oakland
WASHINGTON 2 1/2 over Tampa Bay
Baltimore 2 1/2 over CLEVELAND
BUFFALO 3 over Jacksonville
N.Y. JETS 3 1/2 over Cincinnati
CHICAGO 3 over Detroit
ST. LOUIS 9 1/2 over Arizona
Seattle 1 over NEW ORLEANS
HOUSTON 4 over San Diego
PHILADELPHIA 9 over N.Y. Giants
MINNESOTA 3 1/2 over Dallas
Atlanta 4 over SAN FRANCISCO
DENVER 3 over Kansas City

Monday, September 13:
CAROLINA 2 over Green Bay

Home teams in CAPS.

NOTE: Picks must be made by kickoff time of the earliest game listed; any picks posted after that time are void and the poster cannot earn any points for that week. Picks submitted without designated Best Bets will be honored, but in case of ties such poster will be deemed to have finished in the lowest of the places tied for. Any game left unpicked (except for those that have no line) counts as an automatic loss, but does not disqualify the poster from earning points for that week.

This contest and the traditional SCMB Pick'em contest are totally separate entities, so posters are free to post picks which do not agree with one another in the two contests; it's perfectly "legal," even though it isn't "ethical" - but since when have degenerate gamblers ever cared about the latter?:lol:

Each week, I will post not only my picks for the games, but I'll also predict a specific final score for each game, accompanied by a brief synopsis explaining the reasons for the pick (as I have been doing here since 2001). No one else is required to do this, however.

Good luck!

[gconnhokiebird]

New England
Oakland
Tennesee (sure pick)
Washington
Baltimore (sure pick
Jacksonville
Jets
Detroit
Kansas City
Green Bay
St. Louis
Seattle (sure pick)
Houston
Philedelphia
Dallas

[ESP0704]

Indianapolis
Tennessee (best bet)
Oakland
Tampa Bay (best bet)
Baltimore (best bet)
Buffalo
Cincinnati
Detroit
Arizona
Seattle
Houston
Philadelphia
Minnesota
Atlanta
Denver

[franky]

New England (best bet)
Miami
Pittsburgh
Washington
Baltimore
Jacksonville
Cincinnati
Chicago
St. Louis (best bet)
New Orleans
San Diego
Ny Giants
Minnesota
Atlanta (best bet)
Kansas City
Green Bay

[abogdan]

NEW ENGLAND
Tennessee (BEST)
PITTSBURGH (BEST)
WASHINGTON
CLEVELAND
Jacksonville
N.Y. JETS (BEST)
CHICAGO
Arizona
Seattle
HOUSTON
PHILADELPHIA
MINNESOTA
Atlanta
Kansas City
Green Bay

[Dublin Mike]

Indianapolis
Tennessee
Oakland
Washington
Baltimore
Jacksonville
Cincinnati
Detroit
Arizona
New Orleans
Houston
N.Y. Giants
Minnesota
Atlanta
Kansas City
Carolina

[MaddEnemy]

Indianapolis
Tennessee
PITTSBURGH
WASHINGTON
Baltimore BB
Jacksonville
N.Y. JETS
Detroit
ST. LOUIS
Seattle
HOUSTON BB
PHILADELPHIA BB
Dallas
SAN FRANCISCO
Kansas City
CAROLINA

[Hero]

Indianapolis
Tennessee (best bet)
Oakland
Washington
Baltimore
Jacksonville
Chicago
St. Louis (best bet)
New Orleans
Houston
Philadelphia
Minnesota
San Francisco
Kansas City (best bet)
Carolina

[KevinBeane]

New England
Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh
Seattle
Houston (BB)
Detroit
St. Louis
New York Jets
Tennessee
Baltimore (BB)
Jacksonville
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Dallas (BB)
Denver
Carolina

[Nate]

Ok, I'm totally lost, but we'll give this a try for something different...

New England
Tennessee (BB)
Oakland
Washington
Baltimore
Jacksonville
N.Y. Jets
Detroit
St. Louis
Seattle
Houston (BB)
Philadelphia (BB)
Minnesota
Atlanta
Denver
Green Bay

[Anthony]

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in paretheses after underdog team.

THURSDAY NIGHT

NEW ENGLAND 27, Indianapolis 17 (+3) - Pats have dominated this series for a long time, winning 12 of the last 14 meetings (covering in eleven), including all seven at home; and the key head-to-head matchup here could involve new arrival Corey Dillon against a Colt defense noted for its soft play in general and its weak play versus the run in particular.

SATURDAY

MIAMI 17 (+2), Tennessee 13 - If there was such a thing as an over-under line for total rushing yards gained the number for this game wouldn't be very high. And while parts of California are under high fire danger right now due to hot, dry weather, Tennessee is under high looking-ahead danger as the Titans host AFC South rival Indianapolis next week - the one thing that might allow what figures to be a dismal season in Miami to get off on a deceptively positive note.

SUNDAY

N.Y. JETS 20, Cincinnati 13 (+3 1/2) - Three and a half can be a pain, but the Bengals have known nothing but pain at Club Med, with an 0-7 lifetime record there (five losses to the Jets and two to the Giants), and even last year they could only muster three road victories over opponents that went a combined 15-33.

PHILADELPHIA 27, N.Y. Giants 23 (+9) - Tom Coughlin has decided that Eli Manning isn't ready yet, so two-time league MVP Kurt Warner will waste no time going after the undersized and inexprienced Philadelphia secondary - and with the Eagles having lost six of their last seven openers and not having both won and covered at home on opening day since all the way back in 1989 there is absolutely no good reason to lay this number.

Tampa Bay 16 (+2 1/2), WASHINGTON 13 - Like giving three and a half, taking two and a half is going against the grain, but would tend to believe that Brad Johnson has more left in the tank than Mark Brunell even though Brunell is two years younger and chances are the Redskins will play better late in the season than early on.

BUFFALO 31, Jacksonville 14 (+3) - I've always maintained that whoever makes up the NFL schedule has a sick sense of humor. Case in point: Four teams went winless on the road last year - and all four are on the road to open this season! The Jags have in fact lost nine in a row on the road dating back to their visiting finale of 2002 and have also dropped six straight on rugs, so until proven otherwise ...

PITTSBURGH 23, Oakland 16 (+3 1/2) - The Raiders are one of the other three teams who did not win on the road in 2003 and, like Jacksonville, have a current nine-game losing streak on the NFL highway - and in case you're concerned about the admittedly tricky 3 1/2-point spot Oakland covered in only one of the nine games.

Baltimore 23, CLEVELAND 10 (+2 1/2) - Browns did little if anything over the spring to strengthen a front seven against which Jamal Lewis ran for an unconscionable 500 yards in two games a year ago - and the new Cleveland franchise has yet to win on opening day, with five losses and only one spread cover since its 1999 reincarnation.

CHICAGO 28, Detroit 7 (+3) - How this line can be only a field goal boggles the mind: The Bears finished two games ahead of the Lions last year - a gap which would have been wider had Rex Grossman been installed as the starting quarterback earlier than Week 15 - and as if you didn't know Detroit brings an NFL-record 24-game road losing streak into the new season which includes 5-11-1 against the line in the 17 of those games that were played on natural grass.

ST. LOUIS 49, Arizona 14 (+9 1/2) - But the Bears aren't the best bet of the opening week. The Rams are: Marc Bulger has never lost a regular-season home game as a starter (he's 14-0 straight up and 9-4-1 versus the points), while on the other side of the home-and-away coin, not only have the Cards lost 13 straight on the road, but they're 1-12 against the spread in those 13 games and have been outscored therein by an almost unbelievable 473 to 169. Mike Martz has never been shy about running up scores, and this game presents him with perhaps the best opportunity to do that in his NFL head-coaching career to date.

NEW ORLEANS 23 (+1), Seattle 20 - Let the Seahawks prove they can win on the road - and especially on the road outside the NFC West where they dropped six out of six in 2003 with one half-point cover and five losses against the spread - before even considering giving points on them to do so. And this series provides a tough proving ground, as the home team has won the four most recent renewals of it.

HOUSTON 27, San Diego 21 (+4) - This game is Exhibit A of the sharp drop in schedule difficulty the Texans will be taking this year; indeed, this is the first time in franchise history they have been favored by this much. The only thing that could go wrong here is rain in the Houston area on Sunday, forcing the closure of Reliant Stadium's retractable roof; then San Diego's lucrative 16-6-1 spread record indoors since 1992 comes into play.

MINNESOTA 31, Dallas 24 (+3 1/2) - A Monday night visit to Philadelphia (where they haven't won in nearly 20 years) is next up for the Vikings, so they're staring down the barrel of an 0-2 start unless they win this; but fortunately they've owned Dallas of late, winning and covering the last four meetings, and the Cowboys have had their problems inside NFL domes, going 2-11 straight up and 3-10 against the line in that venue dating back to 1996.

SAN FRANCISCO 28 (+4), Atlanta 27 - Not sure if it means anything, but the Falcons were shut out in both of the preseason games they played on the road - but considerably more meaningful is the fact that they have lost ten consecutive games at The Building Formerly Known As The Building Formerly Known As Candlestick Park, and were outscored a staggering 346-141 doing it. And until it demonstrates to the contrary, Atlanta's defense can't stop anybody - not even John York's bargain-basement offense. Upset special.

DENVER 34, Kansas City 24 (+3) - It looks as if "regime change" is likely in the AFC West this year and the Broncos have covered five of their last six against the Chiefs, who still have not found the answers on defense.

MONDAY NIGHT

Green Bay 24 (+2), CAROLINA 17 - Green Bay is 31-17 straight up in road games played on grass since 1993 and the Panthers are like a spot of grease in a skillet - for those of you in Rio Linda and West Palm Beach, that means they're a flash in the pan, and the first sign of that will make itself evident right away.

BEST BETS: BUFFALO, CHICAGO, ST. LOUIS

[MountaineerDave]

Thursday, September 9:
NEW ENGLAND 3 over Indianapolis (9:05 PM EDT) NE
--Last time a jilted AFC Title loser came to Foxboro after the Pats won a SB... Kordell's career came crashing to its inevitable final stage.
Sunday, September 12:
MIAMI 2 over Tennessee Tenn BB
--Tempted to go with Miami, but I don't believe in them at all, so...
PITTSBURGH 3 1/2 over Oakland Oakland
--Think the Steelers pull it out, but in a squeaker. Three and a half is just too many points...
WASHINGTON 2 1/2 over Tampa Bay Wash
--Washington could surprise many and win this in a walk. Or struggle and win by one. I'm going with the former.
Baltimore 2 1/2 over CLEVELAND Baltimore BB
--Baltimore may actually kill Jeff Garcia. Difficult to score with a dead QB.
BUFFALO 3 over Jacksonville Jax
--I'm torn. I think Buffalo wins straight up. But not by much.
N.Y. JETS 3 1/2 over Cincinnati Cincy
--Cincy opens the season with a stunning upset.
CHICAGO 3 over Detroit Detroit
--Whoever wins, won't be by much. Lions cover.
ST. LOUIS 9 1/2 over Arizona Arizona
--Vegas, or whoever set this line, refuses to see that the Rams are NOT VERY GOOD. Arizona is better, and this, while likely to go the Rams way in the end, will not be a cakewalk.
Seattle 1 over NEW ORLEANS Seattle BB
--I think this is one of the few games that actually COULD be a blowout, but for Seattle's bad road woes last year, I understand the spread.
HOUSTON 4 over San Diego Houston
--Um. Yeah, Houston covers. Easily.
PHILADELPHIA 9 over N.Y. Giants NYG
--Eagles win, but not in a laugher. Coughlin will have his team ready. Warner will be the overall goat, but won't throw away his job the way he did last year.
MINNESOTA 3 1/2 over Dallas Minn
--I'd take the Vikes to cover a 5-point spread in this one.
Atlanta 4 over SAN FRANCISCO SF
--Don't think that Atlanta can actually win this game. And I HATE SF right now. But they win. And, Schaub is QB before game's end.
DENVER 3 over Kansas City Denver
--Who can score more points? Broncos at home.

Monday, September 13:
CAROLINA 2 over Green Bay Carolina
--So Vegas believes, as of this spread, that GB will win. That's fine. Panthers win, cover, and Anthony's flash in the pan analogy will have burned itself out so fast, folks will wonder what the hell team he was talking about.

Dave

[Marc]

Tennessee BB
PITTSBURGH
WASHINGTON BB
Baltimore BB
BUFFALO
N.Y. JETS
Detroit
ST. LOUIS
Seattle
HOUSTON
PHILADELPHIA
MINNESOTA
Atlanta
Kansas City
Green Bay

[HibachiDG]

Thursday, September 9:
NEW ENGLAND BB

Sunday, September 12:
Tennessee
PITTSBURGH
WASHINGTON
CLEVELAND
BUFFALO
N.Y. JETS BB
Detroit
Arizona
Seattle 1 BB
San Diego
PHILADELPHIA 9
MINNESOTA
Atlanta 4
Kansas City

Monday, September 13:
Green Bay

[Anthony]

It's down to MountaineerDave and Doug Graham going into the Monday night game.

If Carolina covers, Dave wins Week 1; if either Green Bay covers or it's a push, Doug wins.

(And as for how your humble organizer did: As Jeff Spicoli liked to say - "Gnarly!").

Full details after the game.