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Old 11-01-2016, 11:27 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 9 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 9-3-1. Season totals: 52-50-3, Pct. .510. Best Bets: 10-10-1, Pct. .500.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

TAMPA BAY
24 (+3), Atlanta 20 - Another case of a team having to go on the road and play a team they have already lost to at home - and no hugely favorable quarterback change for Atlanta, as there was last week for New England. And since 2013 the results for the Falcons on grass (6-11 straight up) and outdoors (7-15) have been anything but favorable.


SUNDAY

N.Y. GIANTS
31, Philadelphia 17 (+3) - Phil Simms once quipped that any high school quarterback could throw for 300 yards against Buddy Ryan's defense. Well any high school running back could run for that or very close to it against Jim Schwartz's defense, which is 28th in yards per carry allowed (4.72), with the lion's share of the damage having been done by bigger backs like "Suga" Rashad Jennings. So if you own Jennings in fantasy, start him with aplomb this week - and get all you can on the Giants in the game itself.

N.Y. Jets 20 (+3), MIAMI 14 - Both New York/Jersey teams have been en fuego since Rob Riggle ripped them both on the Fox pre-game show - and in a broadcasting rarity, both of them are playing an early-time-slot game this week. Success by the home team in this rivalry, measured either by what's on the scoreboard or the "big board," has also been a rarity of late, as in 3-10 in the former department and 4-8-1 in the latter, in the last 13 renewals. Jets are also 8-2 outright and 7-2-1 pointwise in their last ten against the Dolphins not played in the shadow of Moonachie's iconic oil drums (one of them, last year, having been held in London).

Dallas 27, CLEVELAND 13 (+8) - After having gone 10-27 straight up and 12-23-2 against the line from 1995 through 2009 as a visitor in cold weather, Dallas has respective records of 12-7 and 10-8-1 in that role since; and the week after their two previous non-losses against the spread this year (their loss to the Jets last week officially having been a push), the Browns covered on neither occasion and were outscored 62-37. Cowboys are also 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread lifetime versus Cleveland 2.0, including holding Jeff Garcia to a zero passer rating in 2004.

BALTIMORE 16, Pittsburgh 6 (+3) - The Steelers are crazy for bringing Big Ben back so soon after arthroscopic surgery - and premature comeback or not, the Ravens have won eight of the last eleven meetings straight up. If some book, either in Vegas or "offshore," offers odds on him not finishing the game, bet on him not being able to do so - and I hardly need to advise anyone who owns him in fantasy to sit him.

MINNESOTA 20, Detroit 17 (+6) - Sam Bradford has gone back to being Sam Bradford again - and a "Triple Witching Hour" game awaits the Vikings next week, at Washington. This game definitely fits into the venerable "Take the points - at least" category.

KANSAS CITY 23, Jacksonville 13 (+8 1/2) - Oddly enough, the Jags are 5-0 against the spread in cold-weather games since 2013, after having been 2-7 therein between 2008 and 2012. But they haven't played worth a damn lately - outscored 69-38 in their last two - and have not covered as an underdog without winning outright since a half-point cover at home against Green Bay in their opener. Blake Bortles is 2-15 straight up as a starter on the road (and 10-26 overall), and is beginning look like a Blaine Gabbert redux.

Carolina 27, LOS ANGELES 10 (+2 1/2) - Everyone in the NFC, not just the NFC South, had better look nervously over their shoulders at Carolina. I'm looking for the Panthers to go on a major tear, and Case Keenum and the Rams are no match for them.

SAN FRANCISCO 21 (+3), New Orleans 20 - 49er offensive tackle Joe Staley and/or wide receiver Torrey Smith, the NFL's defending yards-per-catch champion, might have been traded (most likely to Minnesota and/or Philadelphia, respectively) by the time you read this. But like the idea that they're finally getting the Saints at home after the last three meetings were all in New Orleans (and even down there San Fran was 2-1 straight up and 2-0-1 against the spread in the trio), where a letdown could be on the menu along with the crawfish after the upset win over Seattle.

GREEN BAY 35, Indianapolis 14 (+7) - There was this popular betting maxim back in the '80s: The Green Bay Fire And Ice Theory, which called for betting against the Packers at home in September and October, and on them at home in November and December. And this is the perfect occasion on which to recycle this theory, in that the home team in this series has won six in a row and covered in five straight, and Andrew Luck has never been able to handle the cold: His 4-6 spread record in it includes losses by such scores as 59-24, 43-22, and 45-7. And since this is a late-time-slot game, that will shave a few more degrees off the kickoff-time temperature - no No Shave November (or December) in the NFL! - further adding to Green Bay's tremendous appeal in this spot.

SAN DIEGO 33, Tennessee 13 (+4 1/2) - The de-facto Wing-T Tennessee offense won't have its way with San Diego's rugged, sixth-ranked run defense - and The Adams Family hasn't won in San Diego since 1990, losing six in a row there, and by a combined 166-65 in the last five.

Denver 16 (P), OAKLAND 14 - Hate what the Broncos are reduced to at quarterback - but they have won and covered five in a row in Oakland by an imposing 155 to 78. And I just get the idea that this is too much, too soon for the Raiders.


MONDAY NIGHT

SEATTLE
28, Buffalo 17 (+7) - Like Carolina, Seattle also appears to be well positioned for a strong second-half rally, despite last Sunday's hiccup in New Orleans, and especially now that the Seahawks don't even have to worry about what has become a creaky old Arizona team. And talk about regression to the mean: Tyrod Taylor's Bills are 31st in the league in passing offense despite in spite of the presence of arch-deep threat Sammy Watkins.


BEST BETS: CAROLINA, GREEN BAY, SAN DIEGO

Last edited by Anthony; 11-03-2016 at 06:27 PM.
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