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Old 10-19-2016, 10:01 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 7 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 7-7-1. Season totals: 33-42-2, Pct. .442. Best Bets: 7-7-1, Pct. .500.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

GREEN BAY
27, Chicago 13 (+9) - How bad was Chicago's loss to Jacksonville at home? Going into the game, Blake Bortles was 1-14 straight up on the road, compared with 8-10 at home. And Aaron Rodgers' bottom, which is where he seems to be at the moment, is at least as high as Bortles' top.


SUNDAY

N.Y. Giants
33, Los Angeles 19 (+3) - Neither team's name appears in capital letters because the game is on "the pitch" at Wembley. And the Giants have beaten the Rams six in a row, both straight up and against the spread - three in New York/Jersey, three in St. Louis. Will things be different on a neutral field? Don't bet on it.

Baltimore 34 (+1), N.Y. JETS 6 - After losing 28-3 to a team they had beaten six times in a row, this week the Jets play a team they have lost to eight consecutive times - and Todd Bowles won't even re-arrange the deck chairs on the Titanic, already announcing that Ryan Fitzpatrick will start. The Ravens as an underdog in this spot is the best bet of the season so far.

Minnesota 27, PHILADELPHIA 0 (+2 1/2) - And the Vikings here might be the second best bet of the season so far: This is the first of three straight fatigue games for the Eagles, who have lost five of their last seven such games, while Minnesota is 18-9 coming off the bye, tied (with Dallas) for third best in the league. And Doug Pederson is every bit as clueless as Bowles, staying the course with Halapoulivaati Vaitai, who Ryan Kerrigan flew past for a career day last week. A similar outing could be in store for Minnesota's Anthony Barr.

Buffalo 24, MIAMI 17 (+3) - Teams that aren't good enough to play well two weeks in a row generally don't do so - and the Dolphins have rarely played well against Buffalo recently, losing five of the last six, both ways. LeSean McCoy is looking real scary right now.

Oakland 23 (+1), JACKSONVILLE 21 - The 4-2 Raiders have a minus-11 point differential, on four wins by a combined 12 points over four teams that are 10-13 among them, with none of them having a winning record. So as an underdog to another such team this week, you know what to do.

CINCINNATI 37, Cleveland 13 (+10) - The Bengals owe their 2-4 start to a brutal schedule, losing to four teams with a combined record of 18-6. And here they take on a Browns team they have beaten like a drum in the last three, outscoring them 98-13, and is 4-16 straight up and 7-12-1 against the line since 2012 as a visitor on the carpet. This will feel like a college homecoming game in the City of Satan.

DETROIT 26, Washington 21 (+1) - The Lions are getting it done this year, and could be on the fringes of NFC playoff contention even in the absence of Calvin Johnson - and they have won and covered three in a row against The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name, who are seeking their fourth straight win on artificial turf after having lost 11 out of 12 thereon since 2013 - and don't figure to get it.

Indianapolis 24 (+2), TENNESSEE 20 - Teams that aren't good enough to be 4-3 after seven games, don't get to be 4-3 after seven games - and the Titans have lost nine straight to the Colts (3-6 against the spread) and 14 of the last 15 (6-9 against the spread).

KANSAS CITY 34, New Orleans 31 (+6 1/2) - Doesn't the last team that has the ball always win Saints games? Take the points.

ATLANTA 27, San Diego 17 (+6) - The Falcons are making the same movie as last year, and we all know how that movie ended. But it has always been a tear-jerker for the Chargers when they play Atlanta, for the longest time - six consecutive losses - and at least lately, on artificial turf, upon which they are 0-4 outright and 1-3 pointwise in 2015-16. They further face the danger of a letdown, coming off their snapping a ten-game losing streak within the AFC West, which should at least negate any preparation advantage because that game was on a Thursday night.

Tampa Bay 17, SAN FRANCISCO 10 (+2 1/2) - Nothing is going right for the 49ers - and it seldom does for them in fatigue games, their 5-12 straight-up record therein being the worst in the entire league based on winning percentage. And the NFL's TV ratings are down 11% from the first six weeks of last season, suggesting that a backlash against this blaspheming of the national anthem is occurring. Could a crackdown be in the offing?

New England 31, PITTSBURGH 0 (+7) - Landry Jones is probably the worst backup quarterback currently on an NFL roster. I hardly need to remind those of my readers who are heavily into fantasy football to sit Le'Veon Bell if they own him - because the Patriots will be shoving eight and even nine in the box on every play to shut Bell down and make Jones beat them. No twerking for Antonio Brown this week.

Seattle 23 (+2 1/2), ARIZONA 20 - The Seahawks are 4-1-1 against the spread in the desert in this decade and are quite simply playing better than the Cardinals are. Seattle could essentially put the NFC West away early with this first-meeting win on the road against their only realistic rival, and should do it.


MONDAY NIGHT

DENVER 17, Houston 13 (+6 1/2) - The Texans could be characterized as the anti-Saints, in that the last team that has the ball will lose most of their games because that team will neglect to score. But the way they should be handled is the same: To take the points whenever the line on one of their games is more than, say, four.


BEST BETS: BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA, NEW ENGLAND

Last edited by Anthony; 10-19-2016 at 10:26 AM.
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