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Old 11-06-2018, 02:12 PM   #1
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Cool Anthony's Week 10 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 7-6. Season totals: 56-73-5, Pct. .437. Best Bets: 13-13-1, Pct. .500.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.


33, Carolina 10 (+5) - After winning the first meeting over the Steelers in 1996, the Panthers have dropped the five played since by a combined 161-59. And their offense is moving way up in company from the defense they shredded for 42 points and 407 total yards last week.


28, Buffalo 7 (+8) - At least the Jets are actually trying to win games. The NFL is long overdue to implement a lottery to prevent teams from tanking games like the Bills - their front office if not necessarily their players - are so obviously doing.

Washington 31 (+1), TAMPA BAY 24 - Alex Smith is 95-70-1 as a starter. Ryan Fitzpatrick is 50-73-1 as a starter. And Fitzpatrick is favored? Fitzpatrick wins the fantasy battle - but Smith wins the reality war.

Atlanta 28, CLEVELAND 13 (+3 1/2) - True, the Falcons are "priced to sell," but a three-game winning streak has put them right back in the playoff picture and they snapped a four-game losing streak in cold weather with last week's surprisingly easy win over Elizabeth Warren's Team.

CINCINNATI 34 (+4), New Orleans 28 - This has "trap game" written all over it, with the Saints taking control of the race for home field advantage throughout the playoffs in the NFC last week even though they still trail the Rams by a half game, and New Orleans hosting Super Bowl champion Philadelphia next week. Upset special.

Jacksonville 27 (+3), INDIANAPOLIS 13 - This line is ridiculous. When Andrew Luck isn't throwing touchdown passes (his 23 trails only Patrick Mahomes' 29) all he's doing is checking down to his second or even third receiver (the Colts are last in the league with 9.7 yards per completion). The Jags have covered the last six in the series, and while Jacksonville's abysmal recent record on artificial turf (4-17 straight up since 2013) and in domes - maybe, depending on whether the roof at Lucas Oil stadium is open or closed (2-11 straight up and 5-7-1 against the spread, also since 2013) is acknowledged, Jacksonville holds a huge class edge in this matchup and should win this game easily.

New England 30, TENNESSEE 20 (+7) - Something has to give here, in that New England's offense ranks fourth in the league is points scored per game while Tennessee's defense is first in points allowed per game. But it has always been the Titans who have done the giving in this series recently, losing seven straight to the Patriots and covering only once.

CHICAGO 35, Detroit 13 (+6 1/2) - When a domed-stadium team has to play outdoors, on natural grass, and in cold weather, all in the same game, it is known as a "Triple Witching Hour" - and the Lions are a rancid 9-30 straight up and 13-24-2 against the spread in such games dating all the way back to 1994. The value might not be the greatest, but since the Bears figure to win easily, that shouldn't matter.

KANSAS CITY 51, Arizona 10 (+17) - No team has gotten to 50 yet this year - and if the NFL did what all of the other sports leagues do and gave the home-field advantage in its championship game/series to the team with the better record, next week's Monday nighter against the Rams in Mexico City might have had looking-ahead implications for the Chiefs. But since the NFL does not do that, look for Patrick Mahomes to throw for six more touchdowns and keep the Cards winless lifetime in Kansas City (they come in 0-4-1, with the tie in the first meeting in 1970, and outscored 158-57). Furthermore, Arizona is 5-19 straight up and 10-14 against the spread in this millennium as a visitor in cold weather.

L.A. Chargers 31, OAKLAND 3 (+10) - The Raiders have already been held to three points twice this season, and can't see them enjoying any kind of home advantage in this spot. And with two more slaughter-siders coming up after this one, the Chargers should be well on their way to nailing down at least a wild card.

GREEN BAY 30, Miami 14 (+9) - Another game in which the value is not the best - but since 1995 Miami is 20-44 straight up and 26-37-1 against the line as a visitor in cold weather, and while it's a bit too far out at this writing to make a weather forecast with pinpoint accuracy, the projected kickoff-time temperature is 31 with a wind chill of 22 - more than enough of a disadvantage for the team that plays their home games in the hottest climate in the league.

L.A. RAMS 34, Seattle 20 (+10) - The Rams won the first meeting at CenturyLink Field in Week 5 - and going all the way back to 1995 Seattle is 45-72-1 straight up and 48-65-5 against the line as a visitor on the grass. That's a long history of futility.

PHILADELPHIA 14, Dallas 10 (+6 1/2) - Neither Jason Garrett nor Dak Prescott are particularly popular in Dallas at the moment, and the Cowboys haven't exactly excelled in cold weather for the longest time: 26-36 straight up and 26-33-3 against the spread since 1995 - and at 22-7, the Eagles have the NFL's best post-bye record straight up. But the home team is 4-12 straight up and 3-11-2 against the spread in this series in this decade and if you gave this number in every Eagles game this season your record against the spread would have been 1-7. Take the points.


31, N.Y. Giants 17 (+2 1/2) - For the second week in a row Nick Mullens hosts a team that is tanking, and the fact that the 49ers, who are "priced to buy," go from playing on Thursday night last week to playing on Monday night this week all but cancels out any advantage that the Giants might have had from coming off a bye week - and since the Giants are 11-18 straight up and 10-18-1 against the spread off the bye, they didn't figure to have much advantage anyway. The Giants have also had their problems on grass, going 10-19 straight up on it since 2013.


Last edited by Anthony; 11-06-2018 at 09:49 PM.
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