Go Back   Sports Central Message Boards > Community Discussion > The Lounge

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-12-2004, 08:46 PM   #1
Marc
Administrator
 
Marc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Lake Wylie, SC
Posts: 26,561
Marc will become famous soon enough
Default Who will win the 2004 Democratic nomination?

With the Iowa Caucasus and a number of other important dates coming up, the 2004 Presidential race is heating up. Dean is leading with Gephardt and Clark right behind him. We're going to see several drop out in the next few months, but all of them look confident and cheerful in the debates they've been having recently. So who do you think will be able to challenge Bush?
__________________
Marc James - SCMB Administrator | Sports Central Managing Editor & Founder
Teams: [Kentucky Wildcats] [Green Bay Packers] [Charlotte Hornets]
Follow on Twitter: @mnjames | @sportcentral
Marc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2004, 10:30 PM   #2
MountaineerDave
Where am I?
 
MountaineerDave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 5,661
MountaineerDave is on a distinguished road
Default

Ahhnaahld.

Really. There isn't a single brain between the whole lot of the Democratic candidates this year. And there's no unifying force to get behind any one of this random collection of overstuffed dimwits.

I'm extraordinarily happy that I'll be in Delaware during the DemoCon that's taking place up here this summer... Ugh. The only person who might take this Bush down is another Republican and/or some international scandal that would force his pulling out of the re-election bid altogether. Of course, that scandal would have to involve...

well, I don't know what. He's already slaughtered tens of thousands or more. He's put CIA operatives in danger. He's pissed off the European Union about as much as one man can without actually dropping bombs on them directly. He's developed a frosty relationship with Russia, just what the doctor ordered. He came this close to disallowing flights from China into the country.

No. Nothing internationally will keep him from reelection.
What about domestically? Repealing a decade of clean air and clean water protections? Promoting the abdication of American jobs to foreign lands (this is nothing new; ever since Nixon, presidents promote such anti-American activities)? Swindling the elderly out of medical care? Promoting the restriction of privacy on the populace generally?
All this and his daughters are pot-smoking drunkards who party with Ashton Kutcher and Demi Moore. What more can he do to NOT get elected? Does he have to take Hillary as his running mate?

It should be noted that I was similarly down on the Dems when Bush 1 was up for re-election, with the exception of Paul Tsongas. Clinton, fundraiser extraordinaire, spent Tsongas under the table like he it was Paul's first legal drinking spree...
And I wasn't nearly as cynical twelve years ago...

Dave
__________________
mountaineerdave on twitter
mountaineerdavem on AIM
MountaineerDave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2004, 10:40 PM   #3
Pimpbot
U.K. Expat
 
Pimpbot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
Posts: 1,402
Pimpbot is on a distinguished road
Default

Dean. But I really like the way Clark has been campaigning, without negative ads about the other dem candidates. Anybody but that current Texas Leaguer in the white house would suit me fine.
__________________
My Teams Washington Redskins, Arizona Diamondbacks, Phoenix Coyotes, Phoenix Suns all things Notre Dame And ENGLAND RUGBY WORLD CUP CHAMPIONS!
Pimpbot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2004, 10:57 PM   #4
lmanchur.
Sports Virtuoso
 
lmanchur.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: waterloo.ON.ca
Posts: 12,579
lmanchur. is on a distinguished road
Default

I don't understand this process... how does it work exactly?? In Canada, if you are a member of the party, you either mail in a ballot or else goto a convention on the poll date where the members of the party just get together and vote for a leader.... the leader must usually win a majority of the votes within the party so if there are 4 people running for leadership and the votes are 49%, 25%, 25%, 1%, the last person is dropped off the ballot and voting goes down to the top 3 candidates left... and so on until there is a majority win... but I don't understand this long and dragged-out American process: how does it work?

Last edited by lmanchur.; 01-13-2004 at 12:37 AM.
lmanchur. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-13-2004, 12:20 AM   #5
RaviPachai18
Moderator
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Bermuda
Posts: 889
RaviPachai18 is on a distinguished road
Default

I'm with Lee...can someone shed some light on how this works? It seems to be a very complicated process.
__________________
No Comment
[ www.RPachai.com ]
[ www.lyricsH.com ]
RaviPachai18 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-13-2004, 06:30 PM   #6
MountaineerDave
Where am I?
 
MountaineerDave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 5,661
MountaineerDave is on a distinguished road
Default

Hmmm... It is indeed long and drawn out. Let's see if the process can be distilled into just a couple sentences.

State primaries and caucuses determine how many convention delegates each declared party candidate will have at the party convention.
Party convention nominates the candidate to run in the name of the party. (Unsurpisingly, this is usually the person who won the most and/or biggest primaries/caucuses)
General election determines each states' votes in the electoral college.
Electoral college votes actually CHOOSE who will be president.

I've skipped SEVERAL intermediate details, but this is the big picture. In the end, the guy with the nastiest ads and most money in the coffers tends to win. Which means, for Election 2004, we can expect Mr Bush to proceed easily.

Dave
__________________
mountaineerdave on twitter
mountaineerdavem on AIM
MountaineerDave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-13-2004, 06:54 PM   #7
El Jefe
Philosopher of Sport
 
El Jefe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Santa Monica, CA.
Posts: 308
El Jefe is on a distinguished road
Default

If Dean pulls it out, and I doubt he should considering there is no chance the guy will win any southern states, it's an easy re-election for Bush. However, if Clark is in there, I think we have a real race. I think Clark will sneak in and take the nomination. People really like the guy and considering he got into the race a lot later than the others and isn't far from the top, I think he can get a good boost through the primaries.
__________________
Love to the 49ers, A's, Dodgers, Warriors, Sharks, The Pacific 10(Go Bruins!), Subaru Rally Racing, Ferrari, the WCE, the All Blacks, and the Gunners.
El Jefe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-14-2004, 01:05 AM   #8
KevinBeane
Sports Virtuoso
 
KevinBeane's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Newark DE/Akron OH
Posts: 3,651
KevinBeane is on a distinguished road
Default

Jefe,

I'll take that bet. Even if Dean doesn't win a single southern state (and even if he doesn't) he sure seems to have the rest of the US locked up. If the south is fractured among several candidates, how will that hurt Dean anyway? Or do you think one of the other candidates is going to sweep the south? Who?

If I'm Dean and I win the nomination, my strategy for beating Bush is this: Do everything I can, everything, to ensure that as many people watch the Bush/Dean debates as possible. I make commercials during the World Series and all other big-ticket TV shows saying simply, "Watch the debate(s)!!!"

Why? The conservatives are going to vote for Bush, regardless. Liberals will vote for Dean. It's the voters on the fence who will determine this election, and not only is Dean the only candidate calling Bush on the carpet now (the other candidates are focusing on attacking Dean because he is tanning their hides), but he's (yes, this is a partisan POV, but I'm thinking the swing voters will see it this way too), oh, about 200 times more articulate than Bush, and I think the debates may turn out downright EMBARASSING for Bush. Debating, articulation, and elocution are Dean's strengths(issues aside), and they're Bush's weaknesses. He must capitilize on that for all it's worth to have a shot. He must get people to watch the debates.
__________________
SLANT PATTERN
2004 SCMB FANTASY GOLF, NFL POINTSPREAD CHAMPION

"I believe in [a] God who reveals himself in the orderly harmony of what exists, not in a God who concerns himself with fates and actions of human beings." -Albert Einstein
KevinBeane is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-14-2004, 02:38 AM   #9
Pimpbot
U.K. Expat
 
Pimpbot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
Posts: 1,402
Pimpbot is on a distinguished road
Default

Good call Kevin. I've been thinking for some time that Bush is going to get slaughtered in the televised debates. Al Gore made him look good, as I have table legs that look less wooden than him. But against Dean, Bush is going to look like Jed Clampet!.
__________________
My Teams Washington Redskins, Arizona Diamondbacks, Phoenix Coyotes, Phoenix Suns all things Notre Dame And ENGLAND RUGBY WORLD CUP CHAMPIONS!
Pimpbot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-14-2004, 07:34 AM   #10
El Jefe
Philosopher of Sport
 
El Jefe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Santa Monica, CA.
Posts: 308
El Jefe is on a distinguished road
Default

History has proven that a presidential candidate cannot win the election if they cannot carry the South. I'd like to see a change in history, but my gut feeling is this country will continue to follow its historical tendencies.

I like Dean. I think he's a viable presidential candidate...but let's recall how liberal candidates have faired in this country...not so good. We're talking about a candidate that won't carry one single state in the South. Bush is on an upswing now, especially with the capture of Hussein and a recent bump up in the economy. If he can maintain stability, he will be incredibly tough to beat. Middle America likes the guy....hard to believe, I know. I agree that the debates could be a potential proving ground for Dean, but until then, Bush is well in the lead to be re-elected.

You mention liberals coming out to vote...hey I hope you're right. This would be the year for them to come out, because they haven't before. The problem with appealing to them, though, is that you're completely abandoning a major population of this country with that kind of campaign. Clinton won because he appealed to both sides with his charisma. Dean will be hard-pressed to win a southern state considering the conservatives have long held firm and strong as a political powerhouse. Heck...JFK would've been minced meat had he not had LBJ as a running mate to balance his campaign. Dean will need to do something similar if he is to have a chance.

I just think Clark is an easier sell on the public than Dean...but I'm cheering for Dean. I'd vote for the guy.
__________________
Love to the 49ers, A's, Dodgers, Warriors, Sharks, The Pacific 10(Go Bruins!), Subaru Rally Racing, Ferrari, the WCE, the All Blacks, and the Gunners.
El Jefe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-14-2004, 08:12 AM   #11
lmanchur.
Sports Virtuoso
 
lmanchur.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: waterloo.ON.ca
Posts: 12,579
lmanchur. is on a distinguished road
Default

Dave -- I understand everything about how the president is selected... just not what is going on right now with selecting the candidates.
lmanchur. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-2004, 05:54 PM   #12
MountaineerDave
Where am I?
 
MountaineerDave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 5,661
MountaineerDave is on a distinguished road
Default

Lee-- Okay.

So, this part:
Quote:
State primaries and caucuses determine how many convention delegates each declared party candidate will have at the party convention.
is where we are. Each state has either a caucus or a primary (a few have both), where the announced candidates for a party, in this case, just the Dems, really, are voted upon to determine the number of delegates favoring those candidates are sent to the party convention.

I've only ever lived (3 states) in primary states. In a primary, the voting process is pretty much what the general election process is like, but with more names.
Most states require voter registration by party affiliation. This matters most during a primary. When a voter walks up to a polling place, they are given either a Republican or Democratic ballot, depending on their registrated affliation. (Never heard of a Green Party ballot, btw.)

(In Mass, it is possible to register R, D, or U for unenrolled; At the primary, the U voter gets to pick his poison, vote for Mickey Mouse in the incumbent party's ballot, or for your favorite candidate on your party's ballot, if you're a member of the non-incumbent party; I go this way. I wait till primary day to decide which party needs my vote most. If pre-primary press polls indicate a Dem is going to win by landslide, but there's stiff competition on the R ballot, I choose the R ballot in a negative voting campaign, voting against the creep I like least. Used to be in Mass., that the ballot chosen meant you were registered that way unless you filed documents you had to go to a city or town hall to fill out; they now have unenrollment docs at the polling places so a U voter can go to the general election as a U voter, and not as party-affilation that, for all intents and purposes, may have been decided on a whim.)

Voter goes into booth, chooses the candidate from the list on the ballot (All candidates are not necessarily on the party ballot in every state; each state has different rules to get onto ballots. Most big-time candidates are on all states' ballots, though not all the time.) and a list of delegates whose names he's likely never heard before. These delegates, at least in Mass, have their candidate affiliation listed, so the voter knows he's choosing a delegate in line with his candidate choice.
The states' delegates are then sent to the party convention in rough proportion to their finishes in each state primary. There's a caveat here, of course: Some states have winner-take-all primaries. So, if Dean were to win one of these states (none of which come to mind immediately), all the Dem delegates to the DemCon from that state will be Dean supporters.
In a state (like Mass) where there is no winner-take-all, the proportion holds, but the delegates are then sent based on their finishing in the polls, too. That is, if the state only sends six delegates, and Dean wins 2-1 over Kerry, then Dean will send 4, Kerry 1, and the third place guy might send 1 also, and exactly who those delegates are is determined based on the delegate voting totals.

At the conventions, the nominee is announced, and is taken to be the person who won the most delegates (primaries). Briefly researching the subject, I've found that while there was once debate within party conventions to choose a nominee, the debate has been stifled by simply allowing the states' primary votes being the end-all-be-all...

Caucuses are another matter altogether. Having never lived in a caucus state, I'm not 100% clear on how they work, although my impression has been they work not unlike what you described above. Anybody on the boards ever lived-in/attended a caucus?

I hope I've further confused the situation. There's a government depiction of the process here. Reality involves a ton more money and public opinion polling than is described here.

Dave
__________________
mountaineerdave on twitter
mountaineerdavem on AIM
MountaineerDave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-2004, 06:28 PM   #13
KevinBeane
Sports Virtuoso
 
KevinBeane's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Newark DE/Akron OH
Posts: 3,651
KevinBeane is on a distinguished road
Default

Jefe, you make references for Dean's chances in the South in both the primaries and (hypothetically) the general election. As far as the primaries go, the last SOuth Carolina poll I saw had hime with a razor-thin lead over Edwards and Clark; still, a lead's a lead, and although I haven't seen polling figures for other states, he may pull out a southern state or two in the primaries; polling data doesn't rule out the possibility.

The general election, you're right...I have a hard time seeing him carrying any southern state....that's why the debates are so important. He will have to either shockingly take a southern state or two (I wold say florida is a possibility, which would be a big one) or really dominate the rest of the US, which would be the only way to negate losing the entire south. These are both stretches, and I'm not optimistic. But it could happen.....Bush Senior was still polling as well at this point in 1996 (I believe?), and it didn't take a scandal for Bush Senior to lose his bid for reelection. Clinton, true, was more moderate, but I don't think there are *TOO* many 1996-voters-for-Clinton who are absolutely, positively out of reach for Dean. Food for thought.
__________________
SLANT PATTERN
2004 SCMB FANTASY GOLF, NFL POINTSPREAD CHAMPION

"I believe in [a] God who reveals himself in the orderly harmony of what exists, not in a God who concerns himself with fates and actions of human beings." -Albert Einstein
KevinBeane is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-2004, 09:39 PM   #14
Packers3045
faVRe is my hero
 
Packers3045's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Boston
Posts: 536
Packers3045 is on a distinguished road
Default

clark
__________________
GO PACKERS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Packers3045 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-2004, 10:11 PM   #15
lmanchur.
Sports Virtuoso
 
lmanchur.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: waterloo.ON.ca
Posts: 12,579
lmanchur. is on a distinguished road
Default

What is the difference between a caucus and primary state and how are they chosen??
lmanchur. is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:47 PM.