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Old 11-14-2019, 12:30 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 11 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 7-6. Season totals: 61-83-4, Pct. .426. Best Bets: 14-15-1, Pct. .483.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

CLEVELAND
16, Pittsburgh 10 (+2 1/2) - I'm sure you've seen Baker Mayfield's Progressive Insurance commercials. Have you seen Mason Rudolph's Underwood Deviled Ham commercials? Oops, that was Mason Reese.


SUNDAY

WASHINGTON
17, N.Y. Jets 13 (P) - Dwayne Haskins, who has been named the starter in Washington permanently, turned in a respectable performance against the league's third-ranked pass defense when last we saw Elizabeth Warren's Team, who had a bye last week, and the Jets have lost 11 in a row on grass - and with a "Triple Witching Hour" game at home against Detroit to follow, Washington could get a decisive leg up on the turnover-plagued Giants (who are idle this week, so they can't add to their league-leading turnover total) to evade the NFC East cellar.

MIAMI 20 (+6 1/2), Buffalo 17 - Just cover, baby! The Dolphins have done exactly that in all five games since their Week 5 bye, and Buffalo's "batting average" on grass since 1995 (.330) would have won a baseball league batting title only five times out of 50 (one title in each league) over that period. Upset special.

Atlanta 27 (+6 1/2), CAROLINA 20 - Last week's shocker in New Orleans was the first of five straight division games for the Falcons, who are 5-1 both ways against the Panthers since 2016. And you knew Carolina couldn't keep winning with Kyle Allen at quarterback, didn't you?

New Orleans 37, TAMPA BAY 23 (+5 1/2) - If you can find a sports book that will take a propositional wager on what the highest-scoring game will be this week, bet on this game to be it - and the Saints are competent and then some both on grass (14-9 against the spread since 2015) and outdoors (7-2 against the spread in 2018-19).

Dallas 27, DETROIT 7 (+3 1/2) - Matt Patricia can learn a lesson concerning Matthew Stafford from what the Eagles did with DeSean Jackson - a lesson of what not to do. Assuming that's how Patricia sees it, Dallas should win this game easily.

Jacksonville 21 (+3), INDIANAPOLIS 16 - The AFC South is tightly bunched enough for the returning Nick Foles to win it for the Jags, while Jacoby Brissett remains questionable. Jacksonville is 5-21 straight up but 12-11-3 against the spread since 2013 on rugs, yet has lost six straight in domes, while the Colts are 15-8 against the spread in fatigue games, which is second best in the league. Your call.

BALTIMORE 34, Houston 10 (+5) - The inherently unorthodox nature of the Baltimore offense hasn't stopped the Ravens from both gaining yards (421.7 per game, second in the NFL) and scoring points (33.3 per game, first) in bunches - and the Texans have never won in Baltimore, going 0-5 there (1-2-2 against the spread) and getting outscored 118-67. Best bet in the week's lone "cold weather" game - such picks have gone 5-1 against the spread so far this season, and Houston is 1-3-1 against the line in "Triple Witching Hour" games since the surface at NRG Stadium was switched to artificial turf in 2016.

MINNESOTA 27, Denver 24 (+10 1/2) - The Broncos are 22-8 straight up coming off a bye week, and that's tied (with Philadelphia) for the best such record in the NFL, and Denver holds the best record against the spread off the bye solely, also 22-8. And the last time the Vikings were double-digit favorites, they burned more money than Bernie Sanders would if he were to somehow get elected President - and the last three meetings in this series have all been decided by three points, including one that went into overtime. Take the points.

SAN FRANCISCO 23, Arizona 14 (+12) - The 49ers complete a three-game home stand against the Packers after this one that will go a long way toward deciding the top three seeds in the NFC, and although they snapped their eight-game losing streak to the Cards two Thursday nights ago, they didn't cover, dropping their spread record vs. Arizona since 2015 to 3-6. Trap game. You know what to do.

New England 21, PHILADELPHIA 10 (+3) - As the saying goes, no one plans to fail, but many fail to plan - and Howie Roseman, who had to have been aware of DeSean Jackson's injury history (he had missed 23 games and 30 starts from 2008 through 2018), failed to plan by not drafting a speed receiver like Parris Campbell or D.K. Metcalf in April's draft, choosing instead to select the velocity-challenged J.J. Arcega-Whiteside while both Campbell and Metcalf were still on the board. So now the Pats will be puttin' on the blitz against Carson Wentz - and the Eagles, who were 13-1 straight up and 10-4 against the spread coming off a bye week under Fat Boy, are 3-3 and 2-4 respectively since, and the road team will be seeking its fifth straight spread cover in the series - and should get it, as should the Patriots obtain revenge for Super Bowl LII, even if it won't be the same quarterback that they will be facing on Sunday.

OAKLAND 35, Cincinnati 13 (+10) - Move over, Les Steckel. Move over, David Shula, who also coached the Bungles. You have just been upstaged - or should I say downstaged? - by Zac Taylor. And Cincinnati's grass woes will continue with a tenth consecutive defeat.

Chicago 17 (+7 1/2), L.A. RAMS 16 - It doesn't have to be impressive, but one win can often make the light go back on - and the Bears have won six of seven from the Rams dating back to 2006. Plus the Rams are softer than Kitchen Queen Paper Towels, at least on offense anyway, so the soon as the rugged Chicago defense gets in Jared Goff's face, it's game, set, match.


MONDAY NIGHT

Kansas City
31, L.A. Chargers 17 (+4) - This one will be in Mexico City unless the Mexicans screw it up again like they did last year. Philip Rivers leads the NFL in passing yards, but his effort is withering on the vine because the Spanoses are too cheap to pay Melvin Gordon what he's worth, causing him to hold out and miss the first four games; as a result, the Charger running game has never taken off, ranking 26th in the league with 86.1 yards per game. The Chiefs have five straight road (this game would have been at that undersized soccer pitch the Chargers call home if it were not south of the border) wins and covers in the series by a combined 155-88, and should make it an even half dozen both ways.


BEST BETS: BALTIMORE, CHICAGO, KANSAS CITY
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