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Old 11-19-2019, 12:00 PM   #1
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Cool Anthony's Week 12 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 9-5. Season totals: 70-88-4, Pct. .444. Best Bets: 16-16-1, Pct. .500.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.


24 (+4), HOUSTON 17 - Colts have won five of the last six meetings, and with Jadeveon Clowney traded, J.J. Watt retired and Will Fuller out more often than he's in, the Texans are earning the tag "softest in NFL."


21 (+4 1/2), Oakland 20 - Raiders have not beaten the Jets at Club Med since 1996 (0-5 straight up, 1-3-1 against the spread, outscored 128-76) and Oakland is 3-32 straight up and 13-22 against the line since 2003 as a visitor on the carpet, and 1-15 straight up and 4-11-1 against the line since 2012 as a visitor in cold weather. Finally, the home team has won the last five meetings here by a combined 64 points. Upset special - if it can actually be regarded as an upset considering all of the foregoing.

CHICAGO 13, N.Y. Giants 10 (+7) - Mitchell Trubisky came out late in Sunday night's game due to what might have been a benching disguised as a face-saving "injury" - yet there was no delayed opening of this line, showing that the oddsmakers believe that any drop-off in talent from Trubisky to Chase Daniel is small to vanishing. Chicago has not covered at home against the Giants since 1991 (0-5) and one of these days the Giants are going to stop turning the ball over two or three times in every game (they're averaging 2.4; only Tampa Bay's 2.5 is higher). Then again, "one of these days" could be none of these days.

Seattle 27 (+3), PHILADELPHIA 14 - Seahawks have won the last four meetings, all by double digits, and the decision to move this game from an 8:20 start to a 1:00 start greatly benefits them, as it could add as many as 10 degrees to the kickoff-time temperature. The Carrollers are also 4-0 both ways on grass this year, a major form reversal - and in another major form reversal, they have won their last three coming off a bye, a situation in which they had struggled mightily throughout the entire bye era prior, by a combined 78-45. Finally, Russell Wilson has a lifetime 104.8 passer rating in three games against the Eagles that includes zero interceptions. Best bet.

BUFFALO 24, Denver 7 (+5) - Five points is an absolute bargain considering that the 7-3 Bills are in the thick of at least the wild card race while the 3-7 Broncos are non-contenders - and that is without bringing up that Denver has five straight non-covers in New York State (the Bills being New York State's Only Team) and is 15-23 both ways since 2007 as a visitor on the carpet. This first-ever "Allen vs. Allen" quarterback matchup goes to the home side's Josh Allen - easily.

WASHINGTON 16 (+2), Detroit 6 - Detroit's lone victory ever in Washington (the Lions are 1-21 lifetime in D.C.) occurred on September 22, 2013 - thus not in cold weather, and certainly not in a "Triple Witching Hour" game, in which the Lions are 10-32 straight up and 14-26-2 against the line dating back to 1994. Dwayne Haskins had better get himself measured for a cap and gown during the week - for he will be graduating from the maiden ranks as a starter on Sunday.

ATLANTA 34, Tampa Bay 20 (+4) - Already having won by far their toughest game within the division, and doing it by 17 points, the Falcons might go 6-0 within the NFC South - and they have a current five-game winning streak (3-1-1 against the line) against a Tampa Bay team that since 2013 is 5-25 straight up and 9-18-3 against the line as a visitor on the carpet and 5-18 straight up and 7-15-1 against the line inside NFL domes.

CLEVELAND 31, Miami 23 (+11) - This is Cleveland 2.0's heaviest opening-line favoritism in franchise history (they had opened as 10-point favorites twice before). There just isn't any percentage in laying the number in this type of scenario. Take the points.

Pittsburgh 27, CINCINNATI 13 (+7) - The Steelers have won nine in a row over the Bungles, covering in six - and unless Pittsburgh gets caught in the vise grip of letdown and looking ahead (the rematch against Cleveland is next week), those numbers figure to become ten in a row and covering in seven.

NEW ORLEANS 34, Carolina 17 (+10) - Like their division rivals, the Bucs, the Panthers have struggled on artificial turf and indoors, though not as severely, but for a longer time: Dating back to 2008 Carolina is 18-30-1 straight up and 18-31 against the line as a visitor on the carpet, and 13-22 straight up and 14-20-1 against the line inside NFL domes. The Saints are one of five NFC teams battling for the conference's top seed and cannot afford another slip-up like the one they had two weeks ago at home against Atlanta.

Jacksonville 27 (+3 1/2), TENNESSEE 24 - Jags have dropped five straight in Music City but none were with Nick Foles at quarterback - and that extra "hook" (half point) can be a nice thing to have on your side.

NEW ENGLAND 21, Dallas 10 (+6 1/2) - Essentially the entire country, except for Middle Tennessee (see above) will get to watch this game - and what they will see is the Patriots running their home winning streak to 21, and improving their spread record therein to 17-3-1. Dak Prescott is now the NFL leader in passing yards - and maybe for league MVP as well - but faces his biggest challenge of the season, going up against the league's second-ranked pass defense.

Green Bay 34 (+3), SAN FRANCISCO 27 - The Packers in general, and A-Rod in particular, have way, way more experience in big games like this - and Green Bay is 18-12 straight up and 17-12-1 against the line coming off a bye week, while San Fran is 8-16 both ways in fatigue games.


28 (+3), Baltimore 23 - When in doubt, go with the pure pocket passer against the scatter-shot running quarterback - especially when the pure pocket passer is at home, getting points, and his team needs the game more.

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