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Old 12-03-2014, 02:39 AM   #1
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Cool Anthony's Week 14 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 8-8. Season totals: 94-95-3, Pct. .497. Best Bets: 19-20, Pct. .487.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.


27 (+3 1/2), Dallas 24 - The Cowboys enjoy none of the advantages in this spot that they have successfully taken advantage of for decades from playing on Thanksgiving, in that they do not have a long break afterwards, nor does their opponent have a shorter preparation time because the Bears also played a Thanksgiving Day game - and besides being 12-17 straight up lifetime in December, Tony Romo is 7-22 against the spread. The Bears pull off the upset in this cold-weather night game - and by doing so notch their fourth straight win and cover over Dallas.


24 (P), N.Y. Giants 20 - After having gone 5-0 against Houston, the Giants are 0-5 against Tennessee - and with the Titans hosting the Jets next week, they have a serious shot at going 2-0 against New Jersey this year. And now the hot speculation is that Eli Manning could be on the way out as well as Tom Coughlin.

MINNESOTA 20, N.Y. Jets 17 (+5 1/2) - In addition to the spread, the Jets sure had the running game covered on Monday night, and the Vikings are 24th in the league at stopping the run; furthermore, the Jets are 8-1 straight up and 7-2 versus the points lifetime against Minnesota so take the points.

WASHINGTON 23 (+1 1/2), St. Louis 21 - Colt McCoy went 31-for-47 for 392 yards, with three TDs and no interceptions last week, and while the Rams have covered in five of their last six against Washington, St. Louis is 10-17 both ways since 1992 as a visitor in cold weather. Siding with the underdog in this "Who cares?" game too.

Baltimore 31 (+3), MIAMI 24 - The Dolphins were extremely fortunate to slip past the Jets on Monday night, and have dropped four in a row to Baltimore both ways. Look for big numbers from Ravens running back Justin Forsett, who has made them forget all about the just-unbanned Ray Rice.

Houston 20, JACKSONVILLE 10 (+4) - Oh, but Blake Bortles engineered a huge comeback win over the Giants last week. Well, not exactly: The Jaguars scored two TDs on fumble returns, and that was the real reason why they overcame that 21-point deficit - and if the Browns don't make the playoffs and the Cardinals close the deal on what is beginning to look a lot like a folderoo of 1964 Phillies proportions, Bill O'Brien actually becomes the logical choice for Coach of the Year if the Texans win both here and in the rematch at Jacksonville in the season finale and reach .500 after going 2-14 a year ago.

Indianapolis 30, CLEVELAND 28 (+3 1/2) - Curiously, the Colts are 3-4 against the spread versus Cleveland 2.0 despite winning six of the games straight up - and Andrew Luck is 3-4 as a starter in cold weather, compared with 28-12 in the rest of his games. Willing to take the Browns to at least cover.

CINCINNATI 28, Pittsburgh 23 (+3 1/2) - Their tie game against Carolina in October effectively holds the Bengals harmless from tie-breaker permutations, and they should be stoked returning home from a 3-0 road trip. Steelers regressed badly last week against New Orleans and are 2-5 straight up and 3-4 against the spread on artificial turf in 2013-14. Leaning Cincy's way in spite of the tricky number.

DETROIT 21, Tampa Bay 20 (+10) - The Lions are 13-43 in December since 2001, and that's far and away the NFL's worst December record over that time frame. Plus the Buccaneers have covered in five of their last six at Detroit, and the home team in the series has taken the collar both ways in the last four. There is absolutely no reason to lay the wood - and in fact, Tampa Bay has real chances to win this thing outright.

NEW ORLEANS 37, Carolina 17 (+10) - With three of their remaining four games within the NFC South, two of them at home (and the road outing is at the NFL's lone winless team at home), the Saints have a clear path to the division title - and right now the Panthers are basically nonfunctional, and are on the carpet again this week, on which they're 6-21-1 straight up and 9-19 against the spread since 2008, and indoors, where Carolina is 6-15 outright and 7-13-1 pointwise, also since 2008. Even at this price, New Orleans is something akin to a lock.

DENVER 33, Buffalo 14 (+10) - Another seemingly inflated spread, this time in a game between two teams with winning records instead of two teams with losing records. But Buffalo is overmatched on paper and is 32-62 straight up and 41-51-2 against the line since 1995 as a visitor on the grass.

Kansas City 23 (P), ARIZONA 13 - Their inexplicable loss to the previously-winless Raiders two Thursday nights ago snapped a nine-game road spread-cover streak for the Chiefs, and their league-leading pass defense shouldn't have any trouble at all shutting down Drew Stanton. And under Andy Reid, KC is 8-0 straight up (and 6-2 against the spread) vs. backup quarterbacks.

Seattle 19 (+1), PHILADELPHIA 3 - This is where the Eagles will really feel the loss of DeSean Jackson: You have to be able to stretch the field to have any chance against the Seattle secondary, and thanks to Chip Kelly's eighth-witted and totally selfish decision to discard Jackson last spring, the Eagles can't do that - and not only haven't the Seahawks lost in Philly since 1989, but have recorded two shutouts there, 38-0 in 1998 and 42-0 in 2005. Could a team possibly win 19-3 three weeks in a row? They sure can.

San Francisco 20, OAKLAND 6 (+7 1/2) - Since 2007, teams that have gotten shut out are 12-30 straight up and 15-26-1 against the spread in their next game - and I am most emphatically not buying into the narrative that Derek Carr is any kind of future franchise quarterback, so the Raiders, who now control their own destiny for the top selection in the 2015 draft, should definitely look in that direction if such a quarterback is universally viewed as available therein.

SAN DIEGO 28 (+3), New England 24 - Why are the Patriots on natural grass like a fan? Answer: Because when you stand in front of them, they blow, and when you stand behind them, they suck!


52, Atlanta 17 (+11 1/2) - It's back to 50-plus point territory for Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau facing the league's worst defense, both overall and against the pass.


Last edited by Anthony; 12-04-2014 at 05:12 AM.
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