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Old 09-23-2015, 05:40 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 3 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 6-10. Season totals, 16-16, Pct. .500. Best Bets: 5-1, Pct. .833.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

N.Y. GIANTS
27, Washington 14 (+4) - You're up by 10 late in the third quarter, with a third and 2 at the 8-yard line and a chance to pretty much sew it up, and you have one of the league's premier big backs. So why did you call a pass play - which resulted in a sack and a fumble, and you end up losing the game? Still, Kirk Cousins has never won two in a row and the team he now starts for at quarterback has lost four in a row to the Giants both ways and is 1-7 straight up and 2-6 against the line since 2013 as a visitor on the carpet, upon which they will make their first appearance in 2015 after opening the season with two home games.


SUNDAY

N.Y. JETS
19, Philadelphia 0 (+1) - And I'm serious about the nothing part: The matchup of Darrelle Revis & Co. against the slowest wide receivers in the NFL just might be the most ridiculous head-to-head mismatch I have personally witnessed in my more than four decades of following this game. It is so grotesque that it completely overshadows the fact that the Jets are 0-9 straight up and 1-8 against the spread in the lifetime series; and not for nothing, but lowly Ryan Fitzpatrick has a better lifetime winning percentage as a starter than Sam Bradford - .390 (35-55-1) to Bradford's .363 (18-32-1). If the Jets don't put pay to this jinx in this spot, they literally never will.

NEW ENGLAND 37, Jacksonville 14 (+13) - Unless the Pats have a huge letdown after holding on to win in Buffalo last week, this one won't be close - especially with Jacksonville's current nine-game road losing streak and seven straight on artificial turf (2-5 against the spread). And this line should be closer to 17.

CLEVELAND 17, Oakland 7 (+4) - The knee-jerk thing to do is to overreact to Mike Pettine's, to put it in as genteel a fashion as possible, asinine decision to go back to Josh McCown at quarterback after Johnny Manziel lit it up against Tennessee, announced Wednesday. But the Raiders have taken an 0-for-3 collar both ways at Cleveland 2.0 and have lost a league-high eleven in a row on the road.

CAROLINA 16, New Orleans 3 (+3) - The Panthers are living proof that it's only ugly if you don't win - and just as 1949 was an awesome year to be a McCulloch, at least according to the ads for an otherwise-forgettable 1975 movie, 2015 is shaping up as a totally awesome year to be a McCown, as Luke McCown gets the start here, and maybe for several more games, pursuant to Drew Brees' shoulder injury. This number will be a lot higher by game time.

BALTIMORE 24, Cincinnati 6 (+2 1/2) - The season is essentially over for the 0-2 Ravens if they lose, in that no NFL team has made the playoffs after starting 0-3 since 1998, and no such team has ever made it to the conference championship game. Look for Baltimore to come up big despite having lost to, and at, the same team that the Bengals beat (Oakland).

Indianapolis 20, TENNESSEE 17 (+5 1/2) - The Colts have beaten the Titans seven in a row and covered in six of them - but it's hard to lay this kind of wood on a team in the largely self-inflicted turmoil that Indianapolis is in right now. Maybe Chip Kelly should have bartered away all his seed corn to move up in the draft so that he could have selected ex-Oregon Duck Marcus Mariota.

MINNESOTA 24, San Diego 13 (+3) - Maybe the Vikings are for real after all, and the home team has won the last four games in this series, which is a useful angle even in inter-conference games.

DALLAS 16 (+1 1/2), Atlanta 10 - The Cowboys would have been favored by double digits in this game two weeks ago, but now find themselves not favored at all because of Tony Romo's broken collarbone and Atlanta's surprising 2-0 start. But Dallas is a respectable 6-9 straight up without Romo since 2006, and has traded for the serviceable Matt Cassel, who may even get the start over Brandon Weeden despite Weeden's going 7-for-7 after Romo went down in Philadelphia. Tab them for the "upset" at home.

HOUSTON 17, Tampa Bay 14 (+7) - All three of Tampa Bay's 2014-15 victories have come on the road, and unless Jameis Winston is a bust of JaMarcus Russell proportions he gives the Bucs a huge edge at the quarterback position, which is like nineteen-twentieths of the game these days. Take the points.

ST. LOUIS 30, Pittsburgh 23 (+1) - Nick Foles was too bad to be believed - 53% completions, 8.8 yards per completion - last week, and Pittsburgh is 2-5 against the line inside NFL domes since 2009. That's good enough - or bad enough? - for me.

ARIZONA 20, San Francisco 7 (+6 1/2) - Like Carolina, the Cardinals don't play the prettiest brand of football, but so long as Carson Palmer stays in one piece they figure to keep on winning, especially against this caliber. Niners showed their true colors in more ways than one last week in Pittsburgh.

MIAMI 23, Buffalo 13 (+3) - So far, Tyrod Taylor has played way, way over his head - but both of those games were at home, and it strongly tends to be a different story when quarterbacks like this have to go on the road. And Buffalo's long-term winning percentage on natural grass - .333 (32-64 straight up dating back to 1995) - wouldn't even win a baseball batting title in most years.

SEATTLE 31, Chicago 6 (+15) - Kam Chancellor is back, Jay Cutler won't be back for a while, and love the idea that the Seahawks are finally getting the Bears in their building after the last four meetings have all been in Chicago (with Seattle winning three of them).

DETROIT 36 (+3), Denver 26 - The Broncos notched their 16th consecutive road win on natural grass last Thursday night - but boy, is there ever a night-and-day difference for them on artificial turf: Denver is 10-18 outright and 8-20 pointwise on rugs since 2007, and also 3-7 and 2-8 respectively indoors since 2005. The line says that Matthew Stafford, questionable at this writing with "general soreness," should play. Rough week for teams making their 2015 road bow. This will make it 0-6 for such teams in fact.


MONDAY NIGHT

GREEN BAY 23, Kansas City 20 (+6 1/2) - It could be letdown time in Titletown after avenging their two 2014 losses in Seattle and a division win on the road to open the season - and with the Chiefs 3-0 lifetime at Lambeau and 6-1-1 against Green Bay all told since their first meeting in Super Bowl I, the points are at least well worth taking.


BEST BETS: BALTIMORE, MIAMI, DETROIT
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