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Old 10-03-2018, 11:23 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 5 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 5-9-1. Season totals: 25-36-2, Pct. .413, Best Bets: 6-6, Pct. .500.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

NEW ENGLAND
40, Indianapolis 21 (+10) - T.S. Eliot was wrong: It is September, not April, that is the cruelest month - but this pick will get October off with a bang: Not only have the Patriots beaten the Colts seven times in a row, but have done so by a combined 285-152.


SUNDAY

Denver
27 (+2), N.Y. JETS 20 - Sam Darnold can't do it all by himself and the Broncos have won and covered in five of the last six meetings. But be careful here, as Denver is 14-20 straight up and 12-22 against the line since 2007 as a visitor on the carpet.

CAROLINA 24, N.Y. Giants 14 (+6 1/2) - With his loss last week, Eli Manning became the first quarterback since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 to lose 110 games as a starter with the same team. Panthers have won and covered three straight coming off a bye.

Tennessee 17, BUFFALO 6 (+4) - The Bills were shut out last week (teams in that situation are 18-33 straight up and 22-28-1 against the spread dating back to 2007), and rank next-to-last in the league in total offense, and last in passing. Mike Vrabel's eschewing a tying field goal and going for the win in overtime last week could prove to be a defining moment.

PITTSBURGH 23, Atlanta 10 (+3) - Not only have the Falcons never won in Pittsburgh, but they have been outscored 139-61 in their six games there - and the fact that the Steelers have a tie on their record means that the tiebreakers won't come into play if they do get swept by the Ravens, as teams usually do when they lose the first meeting at home to a division rival.

Baltimore 20, CLEVELAND 14 (+3) - Hopefully the Ravens won't have a letdown after their win at arch-rival Pittsburgh Sunday night, and they have won and covered five in a row over the Browns.

CINCINNATI 34, Miami 17 (+6) - Miami's bubble burst last week at The Big Razor, and the Dolphins have had their problems on rugs - 7-15 both ways since 2013.

Green Bay 31, DETROIT 24 (+1) - The Lions beat the Packers twice last year, but that was with Brett Hundley and not Aaron Rodgers at quarterback for Green Bay. Look for things to be different with A-Rod back at the helm.

KANSAS CITY 28, Jacksonville 17 (+3) - Think of this as a chess game as much as a football game: Kansas City's "bishops," particularly Tyreek Hill, can reach distant points on the board (or field) faster, while Jacksonville may be getting their number one "knight," Leonard Fournette, back this week. The "bishops" generally win in these situations - and they're at home in this one.

L.A. CHARGERS 37, Oakland 34 (+7 1/2) - Charger defense couldn't be much if C.J. Beathard hung 27 on them. The Raiders won a wild shootout last week, and will lose one this week. Take the points.

PHILADELPHIA 19, Minnesota 14 (+3) - Have the Eagles become "one of those teams" - beatable by nobody at home and beatable by everybody on the road? And the Vikings are 1-8 both ways in their last nine in Philly, their lone win therein coming on "Tuesday Night Football" in 2010, and dating all the way back to 2001 Minnesota is 28-60-2 straight up and 40-47-3 straight up as a visitor on the grass, and 29-76-2 and 43-60-4 respectively as a visitor outdoors.

Arizona 27 (+5 1/2), SAN FRANCISCO 14 - Sam Bradford was benched after having averaged 8 yards per completion, and Josh Rosen has averaged 11.4 yards per completion since he was installed as the starter. And don't read too much into C.J. Beathard's 298 yards passing last week: The Chargers were obviously shoving eight in the box on essentially every play to stop the run (49er running backs rushed for all of 57 yards) and make Beathard beat them - plus seven of San Francisco's 27 points came on an interception return. No way should the 49ers be favored by this much, if at all - and with the Cards, who have a six-game winning streak in the series, coming off gritty, back-to-back covers, they are the week's safest investment.

L.A. Rams 31, SEATTLE 28 (+7) - The Vikings, who are off to a, how shall we say, less than wonderful start, made the Rams look kind of human Thursday night - and never underestimate the power of "The 12th Man," especially when he's getting seven points.

Dallas 23 (+3), HOUSTON 17 - One win over one of the AFC's bottom feeders is not gonna make me say that the Texans are back - and if the Cowboys win with a walk-off field goal again this week they have to cover because this time around they're underdogs.


MONDAY NIGHT

NEW ORLEANS 34, Washington 31 (+6 1/2) - And one good game against a struggling offense (the Giants are 25th in the league in yards gained and 29th in points scored) will not make me a believer in the Saints' defense - and The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name, who get a Monday night game coming off a bye, has covered six in a row against New Orleans.


BEST BETS: PITTSBURGH, CINCINNATI, ARIZONA
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Old 10-03-2018, 01:39 PM   #2
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this thread is awesome
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