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Old 11-05-2014, 06:40 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 10 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 5-8. Season totals: 63-69-2, Pct. .478. Best Bets: 11-16, Pct. .407.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

CINCINNATI 23, Cleveland 20 (+6) - The Bengals have beaten Cleveland in nine of the last ten, but are just 5-4-1 against the spread in those ten games, and are 0-4-1 against the spread since their Week 4 bye - and despite not having Josh Gordon and Johnny Manziel remaining firmly planted on the bench, these are not your father's Cleveland Browns. Take the points.


SUNDAY

Pittsburgh
27, N.Y. JETS 14 (+5 1/2) - Big Ben has twelve TD passes in his last two games, while Geno Smith and Michael Vick have eight between them all season - and the Steelers are 19-4 straight up and 16-7 against the spread in the lifetime series. So this one looks pretty straightforward.

SEATTLE 24, N.Y. Giants 13 (+9) - If you lose to Andrew Luck at home, as the Giants did Monday night, chances are you're going to have a losing season, in that Luck is 10-1 straight up lifetime on the road against teams with losing records (including 3-0 vs. opponents that currently have such records this year) compared with 2-10 when visiting .500 or better teams (this year included again). And you have to go all the way back to 2008 to find the last time the Seahawks have non-covered three in a row at home (they lost outright to Dallas and didn't cover against Oakland last week in their two most recent home games), so leaning in that direction even with the post-Percy Harvin effect on the Seattle offense, whose existence has been impossible to deny, at least so far.

BUFFALO 27 (+1), Kansas City 17 - Both teams are 5-3 and New York State's Only NFL Team is at home, so why is KC favored? Especially with the Bills coming off a bye and the Chiefs being 6-10 straight up in fatigue games, and the game being on artificial turf, upon which the Chiefs are 5-20 straight up in their last 25. Best bet.

Dallas 13, Jacksonville 10 (+6) - A line on the season's third and final game in London was hard to come by, due to Tony Romo and his marginal injury - and what if Jason Garrett hits on the idea of trying to beat the lowly Jags without him, and with the Cowboys having a bye next week, Romo will really be healthy for his next game? The outcome of this one against the spread, if not necessarily straight up, likely hinges on whether or not Blake Bortles serves up any pick-sixes: If he doesn't, Jacksonville covers; if he does, Dallas covers.

TAMPA BAY 17, Atlanta 13 (+1) - I was seriously considering picking the Falcons, outdoor and natural-grass losing streaks and all, until Lovie Smith opted for the lesser of two evils at quarterback and went back to Josh McCown, as Smith announced on Tuesday. These two teams are poised to repeat their pitched battle for the NFC South basement of last year, in which Tampa Bay secured the bottom rung on tie-breakers.

DETROIT 21, Miami 7 (+3) - Who would have thought, before the season started, that the Lions and Dolphins would rank first and third, respectively, in total defense? Hard to fault anything Miami has done the last three weeks, but a four-game indoor losing streak will need to be overcome in this spot, and in their lone artificial-turf outing this year, the Dolphs were plastered 29-10 at Buffalo in Week 2.

BALTIMORE 24, Tennessee 10 (+10 1/2) - The Ravens are eighth in the NFL in total offense and fourth in defense - and they are last in the suddenly loaded AFC North! And since opening the season with a 23-16 home loss to Cincinnati, Baltimore has done little if anything wrong at home, winning all three home games by a combined 93-23.

San Francisco 26 (+3 1/2), NEW ORLEANS 23 - Thanks largely to spotty play at quarterback to be genteel about it, the 49ers are letting the league's second-ranked defense wither on the vine. But very often after a team proves that they can win on the road, they follow it up by proving that they can lose at home - and the possibility of a letdown for the Saints after their pivotal NFC South win at Carolina is very real, plus the Niners are more or less finished if they lose so would tend to incline toward them, especially with this number giving them the chance to lose by a field goal and still cover (indeed, they pushed against the spread at New Orleans last season, and right around this same time of year too, losing 23-20 as a three-point underdog).

Denver 28, OAKLAND 10 (+10 1/2) - The Raiders made it cosmetically close at the end in Seattle last week only because the Seahawks made several stupid, unforced mistakes in the second half - something the Broncos haven't been doing against them recently: Denver has beaten them five in a row (also covering in all five), outscoring Oakland by 172 to 78 in the quintet.

ARIZONA 31, St. Louis 6 (+7) - You've heard of A Clockwork Orange. Well how about a clockwork letdown? The Rams sure had one in Kansas City two weeks ago after stunning Seattle at home. Now they figure to have if anything an even bigger one after shocking San Francisco on the road.

GREEN BAY 45, Chicago 13 (+7) - The Packers won 38-17 at Soldier Field in Week 4 - and the Bears weren't accusing one another of dogging it back then the way they are doing now. Marc Trestman has to be included on anyone's endangered head coaches list - a list which must also surely include, in no special order, Rex Ryan, Mike Smith, and Tom Coughlin (the latter quite possibly being granted the dignity of resigning for public consumption).


MONDAY NIGHT

PHILADELPHIA 14, Carolina 10 (+5 1/2) - Despite 100-plus-yard efforts in two of his last three games, LeSean McCoy is still on pace to rush for almost 400 fewer yards than he did last year - and last week, a blitzing linebacker might have ended Nick Foles' season. Both of these are direct consequences of Chip Kelly's colossal blunder, committed solely for narcissistic, self-centered reasons, in releasing DeSean Jackson last spring - and don't read too much into what Mark Sanchez did in relief of Foles: Sanchez didn't have time to get nervous - but he will have eight days to do so before this game, and he will be facing the league's defending sack champions (the Panthers recorded 60 sacks in 2013). So take the points - at least.


BEST BETS: BUFFALO, ARIZONA, GREEN BAY

Last edited by Anthony; 11-05-2014 at 08:19 AM.
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