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Old 04-22-2003, 10:35 AM   #1
ndnfan
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Default MLB Tuesday April 22

Record: 5-0-1

SAN DIEGO +147


If there's ever a good time to play San Diego on the Road, it would be when Brian Lawrence is getting the start and that time is now. This Cubs' weaknesses on the offensive side are falling right into Lawrence's strengths. Let's take a look:

Brian Lawrence is everything I love seeing in an up and coming young pitcher. This is only his third season in the Big Leagues, yet has already shown awesome composure and focus for a young pitcher.

You would think Lawrence's numbers would be a bit better at his "pitcher friendly" home ballpark, but the thing is, they're just as good when he pitches on the road. Actually they're a tad bit better on the road. Lawrence has held batters to a very good .239 average in his young career and is even better when the pressure is put on him. Check them out:

Lawrence with runners on……allowing just a .225 average

Lawrence with runners in scoring position …….allowing just a .203 average.

Lawrence with runners in scoring position and 2 out……allowing a microscopic .158 average.

This season, Lawrence is being even more stingy, allowing batters to hit for just a .168 average overall vs him and so far this season, he has a very impressive WHIP of just 1.00 Lawrence was 6th best in the league last season in walks allowed per 9 innings at just 2.2 and also led the National league in groundball outs. Lawrence despite usually pitching with empty bases, still always ranks right towards the top in double plays induced which is just another of his deadly "rally killing" skills. These strengths of Lawrence are playing right into the Cubbie weaknesses. The Cubs lead the major leagues in double plays grounded into (24 for the season) and as a team have the 2nd worse groundball/flyball differential. If all this plays out true, I don't think you're gonna see a whole lot of Cubs batters hitting the ball out of the infield.

Carlos Zambrano is getting the start for the Cubs today and I'm not quite sold on this guy yet. He's been very good in his first 3 starts this season, but remember 2 of these starts were against a struggling Reds team and the other vs a struggling Pittsburgh team.

Zambrano also does not show any advantage when pitching at home. His career numbers indicate a 3-8 record with a 4.57 ERA at Wrigley field. That home ERA is 1.43 runs higher than his ERA in starts on the Road. Zambrano has also allowed more homers while pitching at home than on the road.

Zambrano also has a tendency to run into control problems at times. He's walked 79 in 134.1 major league innings. San Diego is a team that is more patient than normal. They are 5th in the league in walks drawn and are also 5th in fewest strikeouts in the league.

Zambrano has made one lifetime start in his career vs San Diego and although one start isn't a big indication, I think you could say it's a small indication of whether or not the Padres will have many problems against Zambrano. In that start, San Diego rocked him for 5 earned runs off 8 hits including 3 home runs in just 3.1 innings.

Basically, I've just pointed out the heaviest factors in this game, I think they have the wrong team favored in this one and I'm gonna try to take advantage and play the Padres.

Good luck!
-ndnfan
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Old 04-22-2003, 07:51 PM   #2
Kornbix
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Your posts all consist of this info. But hey there pretty cool I guess but I thought you were a white sox fan?
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Old 04-23-2003, 12:34 AM   #3
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Quote:
Carlos Zambrano is getting the start for the Cubs today and I'm not quite sold on this guy yet. He's been very good in his first 3 starts this season, but remember 2 of these starts were against a struggling Reds team and the other vs a struggling Pittsburgh team.
Good analysis, but I hope you're wrong about Zambrano. I just picked him up off the fantasy FA list and hope he can perform better than Rick Reed, who has a 7 ERA and was demolished by the Yanks this week.
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