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Old 11-20-2018, 08:15 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 12 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 9-4. Season totals: 71-84-6, Pct. .460. Best Bets: 17-14-2, Pct. .545.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THANKSGIVING DAY

DETROIT
24 (+3 1/2), Chicago 23 - The Bears have dropped five straight at Ford Field, and are 2-9 straight up and 5-6 against the spread on rugs since 2016, and 3-12 straight up and 4-10-1 against the spread in domes since 2013. And are they really good enough to be 8-3 after eleven games?

DALLAS 27, Washington 0 (+8) - Don't read too much into Colt McCoy's performance after Alex Smith's season-ending broken leg (he led them on two touchdown drives, albeit one of them spanning all of 13 yards following an interception), because 1) he didn't have time to get nervous, and 2) the game was at home. He will have plenty of time to get nervous this time around (and he's 7-18 as a starter), and not only will he be on the road, but also both on artificial turf, where Elizabeth Warren's Team is 6-17 straight up and 10-13 against the line since 2013, and indoors, where they're 5-20 straight up and 11-14 against the line since 2009. And I hardly need to remind any fantasy mavens who read this to sit Adrian Peterson this week, as the Cowboys will be shoving eight in the box on essentially every play to stop Peterson and make McCoy beat them.

NEW ORLEANS 45, Atlanta 24 (+13) - The total lack of defense on display Monday night by both the Rams and Chiefs marks the Saints as the clear favorites to win Super Bowl LIII, and they have already have a Week 3 road win over the Falcons, whose offense, which is far more athletic and explosive than Philadelphia's, should score some points, but not enough to cover.


SUNDAY

N.Y. Giants
42 (+5 1/2), PHILADELPHIA 12 - The Eagles have moved into the top 10 in the 2019 draft order, and could find themselves in the top five by the end of the season. And Carson Wentz is like a cheap speed horse in a horse race: If he is able to make an easy lead, he's awesome; but if someone runs with him, he will fall apart like a twenty-dollar suit in a driving rainstorm (in 37 career starts, Wentz has three fourth-quarter comebacks and three game-winning drives, while Dak Prescott has seven fourth-quarter comebacks and seven game-winning drives in 43 career starts, and Tim Tebow had eight of the former and seven of the latter in 16 starts).

New England 24, N.Y. JETS 20 (+8) - The Pats have burned the money in their last five at Club Med, and the Jets could get Sam Darnold back coming off a bye (which the entire AFC East does). If Darnold is able to return and he avoids the costly miscues that have plagued him throughout the season, the Jets have a decent shot to cover.

BUFFALO 14 (+3 1/2), Jacksonville 13 - Josh Allen is expected to play, and heads figure to roll in Jacksonville at the end of the season, from Doug Marrone to Blake Bortles to possibly even Jalen Ramsey being shown the door - and the Jags are 4-18 straight up since 2013 on artificial turf since 2013 and and 5-14 straight up in cold-weather games since 2008. Upset special.

CAROLINA 24, Seattle 17 (+3) - Despite having a bye this week, the Rams clinch the NFC West if the Seahawks lose - and lose is something that Seattle has a lot of practice doing as a visitor on the grass: 45-73-1 straight up and 49-65-5 against the line dating all the way back to 1998.

TAMPA BAY 28, San Francisco 14 (+3 1/2) - Had Dirk Koetter stuck with Ryan Fitzpatrick the 49ers would have been the pick. With Jameis Winston at quarterback, the Buccaneers are a lock.

CINCINNATI 35, Cleveland 13 (+3) - The Browns have lost and non-covered seven in a row to the Bengals by a combined 213-63, and can tie the all-time consecutive road losing streak record with a loss here. Cleveland is also 7-17-1 against the spread during the streak, and has been outscored 302-162 while losing 10 in a row on artificial turf. Cleveland 2.0 even has the worst straight-up winning percentage in the league coming off a bye week (6-11).

BALTIMORE 14, Oakland 10 (+11) - The Ravens haven't covered since Week 6, Joe Flacco remains doubtful, and Lamar Jackson got almost as many rushing yards as passing yards last week - hardly a formula for covering a big spread.

INDIANAPOLIS 27, Miami 24 (+10) - The home team in this series is 2-5 straight up and 1-6 against the spread in the last seven meetings, and while the Dolphins are 7-18 both ways on the carpet since 2013, they're 12-14 straight up and 14-12 against the spread indoors going back to 1998. This number is way too high, and the Colts will struggle to win.

Pittsburgh 23, DENVER 21 (+3 1/2) - Kansas City's loss on Monday night makes this a potential look-ahead game for the Steelers, if not a full-blown trap game (with them coming off avenging those twin 2017 losses to Jacksonville last week), because it kept the Chargers, who Pittsburgh hosts next week, very much in the running in the AFC West, giving that game very possible seeding and home field implications. Broncos come off a gritty road win over those same Chargers and this one could come down to a field goal, made or missed, either way.

L.A. CHARGERS 16, Arizona 7 (+11 1/2) - After a 38-point explosion at Cleveland in Week 6, the Chargers have scored just 87 points in their four games since. It's easy to overreact to the Cardinals losing to the Raiders at home last week - but don't do it.

MINNESOTA 27, Green Bay 21 (+3 1/2) - The Packers have lost seven in a row on the road (1-6 against the spread) dating back to last year, and have lost and non-covered five straight on artificial turf by a combined 147-85. But Kirk Cousins is 4-11 straight up and 4-10-1 against the spread lifetime on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights, compared with 27-24-2 straight up and 30-23 against the spread in the rest of his games, so be very careful here. The Vikings to win the toss to start overtime, and then they score a touchdown?


MONDAY NIGHT

HOUSTON
35, Tennessee 17 (+6) - The Texans are poised to become the first team to make the playoffs after starting 0-3 since 1998, but no 0-3 starter has ever reached the Final Four, and only one has ever won a playoff game (the 1992 Chargers, who actually started 0-4). But first things first: Marcus Mariota is injured (again!) and the Titans have lost six in a row in Houston (1-5 against the spread) and have been outscored 217-99 doing it. Tennessee is also 5-14 both ways since 2013 as a visitor on the carpet, and 4-12 straight up and 6-10 against the line inside NFL domes since 2012.


BEST BETS: N.Y. GIANTS, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON

Last edited by Anthony; 11-21-2018 at 06:55 PM.
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