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Old 09-09-2015, 01:08 PM   #1
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Cool Anthony's Week 1 NFL Pointspread Picks

Final 2014 totals: 120-117-3, Pct. .506. Best Bets; 26-22, Pct. .542.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.


31, Pittsburgh 14 (+6 1/2) - Tom Brady will be playing after all, while Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant won't be - and this is so awkward to say about the Steelers, but with their offense short-handed, you can't expect their defense to bail them out.


24, Cleveland 10 (+3) - And awkwardness is the dominant theme in this Kickoff Weekend. It is at least kind of awkward to pick Ryan Fitzpatrick to win a game when he is exactly 6-10 per 16-game season as a starter (33-55-1) - but speaking of Kickoff Weekend, the Browns own the longest active losing streak therein, at 10 (and 2-8 against the spread), and are an NFL-worst 11-30 straight up in September since 2003.

WASHINGTON 20 (+4), Miami 17 - The awkward beat goes on: In my season preview edition I picked The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name to go 2-14 this year - but the home team in this series has won a staggering seven in a row (5-1-1 against the spread), and the Dolphins have not won in the nation's capital since the year that forms the title of George Orwell's most well-known book. Upset special.

Indianapolis 27, BUFFALO 13 (+2 1/2) - Kurt Warner must be older than we think, as in being old enough to be part of the groovy generation that is famous for ingesting mind-altering substances of all kinds, in that he has predicted that all four AFC East teams will finish above .500 this season. Tyrod Taylor wouldn't finish above .500 in Conference USA and besides the grotesque mismatch at quarterback Andrew Luck gives them in this spot, the Colts have beaten the Bills in seven of the last eight, covering in six.

Carolina 17, JACKSONVILLE 10 (+3) - True, the home team in this battle of 1995 expansion cohorts is 4-1 both ways lifetime, but should a defending Elite Eighter be favored by this small a number over what in terms of pure personnel is the worst team in the league?

Green Bay 37, CHICAGO 24 (+6 1/2) - Because they are 4-14 straight up in December since 2011, the Bears are under extra special pressure to get off to an alert start. But that doesn't necessarily mean that they will come through under that pressure and they are 1-9 straight up and 2-8 against the spread in their last ten versus the Packers, including 38-17 and 55-14 losses to Green Bay last year.

Seattle 24, ST. LOUIS 21 (+4) - I've been agonizing about this game all week, going back and forth. While the Seahawks are 17-3 straight up since 2005 against the Rams, they're a far more modest 12-7-1 versus the points and Seattle is 9-18-3 against the line inside NFL domes since 2006, and with their secondary minus holdout Kam Chancellor as well as Byron Maxwell, who departed for Philadelphia over the spring, Nick Foles and his dangerous receivers, especially Tavon Austin, might be able to do just enough in Foles' St. Louis debut to manage a cover.

Kansas City 17 (+1), HOUSTON 13 - If you're Andy Reid, at least as the Chiefs head coach anyway, you beat teams with crummy quarterbacks. It's what you do. And hopefully one of KC's wide receivers, presumably Jeremy Maclin, will put their embarrassing wide-receiver touchdown drought to rest right away.

ARIZONA 34, New Orleans 16 (+2 1/2) - Get in on Carson Palmer while you can; that is to say, before he goes down like a hooker on Philadelphia's Kensington Avenue; and the home team in this one has been a Bruce Springsteen-like boss of late, winning and covering the last five by a combined 171-75. Best bet.

SAN DIEGO 31, Detroit 17 (+3) - With all due attribution to Gary Lewis and the Playboys, the Lions are sure gonna miss Ndamukong Suh, cheap shots and all - and they have never won in San Diego, taking an 0-for-4 collar there, including a 51-14 drubbing in their most recent visit.

TAMPA BAY 27, Tennessee 20 (+3) - Marcus Mariota (42 touchdowns, four interceptions) vastly outplayed Jameis Winston (25 and 18) last year - but the home team has outperformed the road team in this series even more vastly, to the tune of 8-1 straight up and 5-2-2 against the spread.

DENVER 35, Baltimore 24 (+5) - But what will happen if these teams meet again in the playoffs? Broncos are 14-1 outright and 10-3-2 pointwise in home openers in this millennium and warrant the selection on that basis.

OAKLAND 14 (+3), Cincinnati 10 - Hot patootie, bless my soul, give me more of that awkwardness: I also picked the Raiders to go 2-14 this year; but the Bengals have never - repeat, never - won in Oakland (0-10 straight up lifetime). Chalk up another one for the home underdog - and that tends to happen more often than not in Week 1, if for no other reason than the fact that many of that week's upsets turn out not to have been upsets when looked at again at the end of the season.

DALLAS 35, N.Y. Giants 21 (+6) - After losing their first four to the Giants at Jerry World, it will be a long time before the Cowboys get tired of beating them there, and Victor Cruz's doubtful status allows the Dallas secondary to double-cover Odell Beckham Jr.


34 (+3), Philadelphia 30 - If the Falcons can "steal" either this game, or their games at Dallas in Week 3 or against Indianapolis at home in Week 11, they can very likely make playoff plans considering what the rest of their schedule looks like - and with Philadelphia 2-4-1 against the line indoors since 2012, Atlanta has a good shot at pulling off the theft. You can profitably bet the "over" in Eagles games (the total here opened at a fat 55) before a blitzing linebacker or safety ends Sam Bradford's season - and maybe even his career.

Minnesota 23, SAN FRANCISCO 17 (+2 1/2) - Last year's Vikings went 7-2 straight up against under-.500 teams, and 0-7 vs. .500 or better opposition - and it is painfully obvious as to which category this season's 49ers figure to fit into. Minnesota has also won five of the last six facing San Fran, covering in four. So siding with the favorites in all three Week 1 games that have two-and-a-half-point opening lines.


Last edited by Anthony; 09-09-2015 at 05:33 PM.
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