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Old 06-08-2006, 02:34 PM   #1
tobynosker
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Default 2006 Summer Movies

One of the fun things we used to do at a radio station I used to work at was predict how the upcoming summer movies would do at the box office. We would start with the movies released the first-weekend in June, and those that were released through the final weekend in August.

We would then select what we felt amongst those films would be the top-five grossing films at the box-office that summer, and would also make a sleeper pick which, although we didn't feel it would crack the top-five for that summer, it would be considered a surprising success.

The films in contention opening in wide-release this summer are:

The Break-Up - 6/2/06
The Omen - 6/6/06
Cars - 6/9/06
A Prairie Home Companion - 6/9/06
The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift - 6/16/06
The Lake House - 6/16/06
Nacho Libre - 6/16/06
Garfield: A Tale of Two Kitties - 6/16/06
Waist Deep - 6/23/06
Click - 6/23/06
Superman Returns - 6/28/06
The Devil Wears Prada - 6/30/06
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - 7/7/06
Little Man - 7/14/06
Pulse - 7/14/06
You, Me and Dupree - 7/14/06
Lady in the Water - 7/21/06
My Super Ex-Girlfriend - 7/21/06
Clerks II - 7/21/06
Monster House - 7/21/06
Little Miss Sunshine - 7/26/06
Miami Vice - 7/28/06
The Ant Bully - 7/28/06
John Tucker Must Die - 7/28/06
Scoop - 7/28/06
Jet Li's Fearless - 8/4/06
The Descent - 8/4/06
Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby - 8/4/06
Barnyard - 8/4/06
The Night Listener - 8/4/06
World Trade Center - 8/9/06
Accepted - 8/11/06
Step Up - 8/11/06
Zoom - 8/11/06
Snakes on a Plane - 8/18/06
The Illusionist - 8/18/06
Idlewild - 8/25/06
Invincible - 8/25/06
How to Eat Fried Worms - 8/25/06





My Predictions (from biggest grossing movie to least grossing movie):

1.) Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
2.) Superman Returns
3.) Cars
4.) Click
5.) Monster House

My Sleeper Pick: My Super Ex-Girlfriend

Last edited by tobynosker; 08-07-2006 at 09:23 AM.
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Old 06-08-2006, 04:41 PM   #2
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you don't have Snakes on a Plane in your top five?
Are you insane?

(True, it is hurt by a very late release date)

I doubt this'll be close, but:


1. Nacho Libre (If the movie gets as good a crowd response as its trailer's been getting, huge, HUGE)
2. Pirates of the Carribean 2 (I don't get it, but people seemed to like the first one a lot)
3. Miami Vice
4. Superman Returns
5. Talladega Nights

Sleeper: World Trade Center (It shouldnt' do well. United 93 was a critical success but a box office... bust is too harsh a word; let's just say that folks weren't ready; but this comes out one month prior to the 5th anniversary of its real world event, people will start to realize, OK, it's been five years, maybe not long enough, but... as long as it doesn't make people angry by suggesting that Osama is W's illegitimate brother or something, and isn't tediously boring, it could be quite the surprise)

Last edited by MountaineerDave; 06-08-2006 at 04:50 PM.
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Old 06-08-2006, 07:54 PM   #3
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The Break-Up. Gotta go see this one with the old lady tomorrow night... hope she's not trying to tell me something???

I think Miami Vice will do well and I agree with Dave on the Pirates of the Carribean doing well. I will not miss Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby, it's gotta be funny right?
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Old 06-08-2006, 11:05 PM   #4
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1. Cars
2. Superman Returns
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
4. Nacho Libre
5. Miami Vice
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Old 06-09-2006, 12:55 AM   #5
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How the hell do you guys predict movie revenues? Are ya usin' charts and graphs? I couldn't begin to predict this stuff.
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Old 06-09-2006, 07:57 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted By buckeyefan78
How the hell do you guys predict movie revenues? Are ya usin' charts and graphs? I couldn't begin to predict this stuff.
I do a much better job at predicting the box-office success of movies than I do in most of my fantasy sports leagues.


Quote:
Originally Posted By MountaineerDave
Sleeper: World Trade Center (It shouldnt' do well. United 93 was a critical success but a box office... bust is too harsh a word; let's just say that folks weren't ready; but this comes out one month prior to the 5th anniversary of its real world event, people will start to realize, OK, it's been five years, maybe not long enough
I wouldn't call United 93 a bust, or say it was too soon.

The movie only opened on a little over seventeen-hundred screens. Compare that to a movie like X-Men: The Last Stand which opened on nearly 4,000 screens across the country and you can see why United 93's numbers seem to be a disappointment.

Plus, in two-weeks X-Men: The Last Stand has managed to gross $175 million at the box-office. But, the movie was made for $210 million.

By United 93's second weekend, the film had already grossed more than its budget, and is finishing its run on theaters by doubling its budget cost.

For a movie based on a controversial subject with questions raised about it being too soon, and then featuring an entirely unknown cast, it was what I would deem a successful film at the box-office.

I don't know what to expect from Oliver Stone's World Trade Center, but with a cast featuring Nicolas Cage, Maria Bello, Maggie Gyllenhaal and Jay Hernandez, I would expect it to have a wider release than that of United 93.

It has the potential to be a surprise hit of the summer, mainly because so little is known about the film right now. But if it is bad, I expect a media and critical backlash to World Trade Center similar to that of The Da Vinci Code.


Quote:
Originally Posted By MountaineerDave
but... as long as it doesn't make people angry by suggesting that Osama is W's illegitimate brother or something, and isn't tediously boring, it could be quite the surprise)
But we are talking about an Oliver Stone film. I wouldn't put anything past the man.

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Old 06-09-2006, 08:56 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MountaineerDave
...and isn't tediously boring...
You must not have seen Alexander. :sleep:
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Old 06-09-2006, 12:54 PM   #8
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Upcoming movies I want to see:

Click
Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby
Nacho Libre
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Old 06-12-2006, 08:00 PM   #9
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Just waiting for Superman Returns. Gonna see it in IMAX w/the 3-D.

I am worried about POTC 2. I dunno. Sea creatures w/human form? Uhhhhh..... Disney is "disneying" it too much.
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Old 06-16-2006, 11:26 AM   #10
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Two weeks into the summer movie season, and here is the current box-office report:

1.) The Break-Up.....$73.93 million
2.) Cars.....$60.12 million
3.) The Omen.....$36.3 million
4.) A Prairie Home Companion.....$4.57 million

This weekend's predictions suggest Cars should move up to the number one spot for the biggest grossing film of the summer with a projected gross of over $35 million this weekend, while The Break-Up will move to number two. The Omen should pull in enough to remain in the number three spot, while Nacho Libre and the Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift should round out the top-five with decent openings this weekend.
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Old 06-16-2006, 12:23 PM   #11
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Nacho Libre is going to have a huge opening.

They have done a masive amount of advertising for the movie and the millions of Jack Black and Napoleon Dynamite fans are going to go out and see it.

I know I am going to see Nacho Libre tonight. It's going to be funny.
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Old 06-16-2006, 02:20 PM   #12
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My best friend and I were planning on taking in Nacho Libre tonight, but another good friend of ours is playing semi-pro basketball about fifty-miles away, so we will be taking in his contest at 7 o'clock instead. My girlfriend and I are already planning on seeing The Lake House on Saturday, but I might try to talk her into Nacho Libre on Sunday.

If you see the movie tonight Ellis, I would appreciate a review of the film in the movie review sections.

Nacho Libre has been projected to gross around $32 million this weekend, but will still probably finish in second-place for the weekend behind Cars.

Some people might be turned off by Nacho Libre's PG-rating, and instead opt for the new Fast and the Furious flick.

Others who are looking for a light-hearted family comedy this weekend might instead take in Cars or Garfield: A Tale of Two Kitties.

But the advertising, mixed in with the cult following of films like Napoleon Dynamite and School of Rock will help draw audiences to Nacho Libre.
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Old 06-16-2006, 04:23 PM   #13
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We are planning on taking our daughter to see Cars tomorrow. She has been talking about seeing it all week long, so we are really looking forward to it.
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Old 06-17-2006, 01:09 PM   #14
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Nacho Libre was hilarious.

It has the random sense of humor of Napoleon Dynamite, along with Jack Black's awesome comedic acting.

It is so funny and so messed up at the same time. I don't know how anyone could think of such a crazy movie.

The plot is good and you will enjoy it if you have a dry or random/odd sense of humor.
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Old 06-17-2006, 01:16 PM   #15
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I saw Jennifer Anniston walking out of a theatre in London, i think it was the premier of The Break Up. I stole a movie poster. I want to see that movie
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