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Old 12-07-2016, 11:34 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 14 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 8-7. Season totals: 84-85-6, Pct. .497. Best Bets: 18-17-1, Pct. .514.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

KANSAS CITY
27, Oakland 13 (+3) - The Raiders were no match for the Chiefs at home, losing 26-10 in Week 6 (for KC's sixth win and fifth cover in the last seven meetings) and arctic air is expected to bring potential single-digit wind chill to Arrowhead, which Oakland's 1-8 straight-up record since 2012 as a visitor in cold weather makes most relevant. And since Thursday night games began to be played on a more or less regular basis a decade ago, favorites are 57-47-2 against the spread in Thursday night games - not a massive bias, but certainly a significant one.


SUNDAY

SAN FRANCISCO
20, N.Y. Jets 14 (+1) - Ryan Fitzpatrick was born on November 24, 1982 - and less than a year later, on October 30, 1983, the Jets last covered the spread in a game against the 49ers, neglecting to cover in any of the eight series games played since. But after Monday night's dumpster fire against Indianapolis - at least no drunken Jet fans tried to put out the "fire" by urinating on it! - Fitzpatrick was benched, and Bryce Petty, born May 31, 1991, will start here. Jets haven't exactly been carrying the mail of late on natural grass either, going 8-16 straight up and 9-15 against the spread on it since 2011.

Washington 41, PHILADELPHIA 13 (+1) - The Eagles have lost their last three by double digits after having had no such losses in their first nine - and Kirk Cousins has a 101.3 career passer rating against them, while Ryan Kerrigan has 8 1/2 sacks against them since 2012 (if Kerrigan got sacks at the same rate over the course of a single season, he would have 15 sacks, pretty much punching himself a ticket to at least the Pro Bowl, if not All-Pro status). Cousins and Kerrigan and their teammates have also beaten Philadelphia four in a row and have covered in five straight. If it waddles like a best bet and quacks like a best bet ...

Pittsburgh 23, BUFFALO 17 (+1) - Does Tony Romo really want to play in Buffalo, even if the Bills are New York State's only team? Maybe Romo would have more success for them than his predecessors against the Steelers, to whom his would-be new team has lost the last five (1-4 against the spread) and nine of the last 10 (also 1-9 against the spread).

CAROLINA 20, San Diego 16 (+1 1/2) - About all that is left for the Panthers is to evade breaking or tying the all-time NFL record for biggest year-to-year drop in record, 10 games, shared by two different Houston teams - the Oilers of 1993-94, and the Texans of 2012-13. They are 4-1 straight up, and 3-2 against the spread, lifetime versus the Chargers.

Minnesota 17, JACKSONVILLE 10 (+3) - Apparently getting out from under Philadelphia's lead-footed wide receivers hasn't helped Sam Bradford: He's averaging 9.5 yards per completion; Carson Wentz is managing 10.2. Meanwhile, Blake Bortles has thrown more interceptions that have been returned for touchdowns (11) than he has wins as an NFL starter (10). And like Carolina over San Diego, the Vikings are also 4-1 outright and 3-2 pointwise in the series, and won 30-12 in their lone prior visit to Fountain Of Youth Land.

Arizona 31 (+2 1/2), MIAMI 27 - With a manageable schedule the rest of the way (Seattle might have little if anything to play for when they go there in Week 16), don't count the Cardinals out just yet - and they have beaten the Dolphins three in a row after Miami had won the first eight games in the series.

CLEVELAND 13 (+5), Cincinnati 12 - When a team can't win a fatigue game, they can't win a fatigue game, something we found out two weeks ago when the Texans lost a fatigue game to San Diego despite having had every other conceivable trend in their favor. Well the Bengals, who have beaten the Browns four in a row by a combined 129-30, are 3-13 straight up in fatigue games - and that's the worst such record in the NFL. Upset special!

DETROIT 27, Chicago 16 (+9 1/2) - There are hypocrites in this niche as well as in politics, as in the people who would not hesitate to lay this number on the 6-6 Packers against the Bears at home yet would balk at doing so on the 8-4 Lions - even with the home team being 6-1-1 against the spread in the last eight meetings, Chicago since 2013 at 3-12 straight up and 5-9-1 against the line as a visitor on the carpet and 2-6 and 2-5-1 inside NFL domes, and 0-6 straight up and 1-5 versus the points on the road for the year.

INDIANAPOLIS 17, Houston 14 (+6 1/2) - Number of wins in Indianapolis by the Texans in franchise history when the Colts have had their first-string quarterback: 0. Brock Osweiler's total free-agent cost to the Texans: $72 million. Osweiler's average yards per completion: 9.65. But watching the Colts win but not cover this ridiculous spread? Priceless. Take the points.

Denver 24 (+1), TENNESSEE 13 - I realize that the sports books in Vegas are not charities and exist to make a profit - but holding up opening a line on a game because a 2015 seventh-round draft choice might not be able to start at quarterback and if he can't go, a 2016 first-round draftee will have to play instead? Most of what few books have opened this game are showing this number - but you don't have to wait to know what the recent numbers in this series have been: The Broncos have won the last four, and covered in the last five, and Denver's 16 wins in fatigue games (against 11 losses) is tied (with Dallas) for the most by any NFL team.

TAMPA BAY 34, New Orleans 28 (+2 1/2) - Major rites of passage for the young Bucs this week and next, as this game was flexed into the late time slot, and their game next week, at Dallas, has been flexed into Sunday night. Look for a positive response from them, at least this week anyway, despite the Saints having beaten them in eight of the last nine.

GREEN BAY 28 (+3), Seattle 14 - The Packers have doubled up the Seahawks in the teams' last six at Lambeau, outscoring them 208-104 while winning all six and falling a half-point shy of also covering in all of them. A wind chill of 10 degrees is on tap for kickoff time, and Seattle is 19-40 straight up and 26-33 against the line dating all the way back to 1986 as a visitor in cold weather (and this one's in the late time slot), as well as 39-66-1 straight up and 45-57-4 against the line since 1998 as a visitor on the grass. The Packers are fully capable of running the table - and if they do, they would need one Detroit loss in either of two tough road games - at the Giants and Cowboys - to secure the NFC North title. By contrast, the Seahawks are in a comfort zone in the NFC West, with a three-game lead.

Atlanta 24, LOS ANGELES 20 (+5 1/2) - Sooner or later the Rams are going to cover one of these numbers. The Falcons have three straight wins over them but show picket fences - 1-1-1 - against the spread in the trio, and Atlanta has won five of the last six but is only 3-2-1 against the line. In any event, this is not a good game to use as any kind of potential meal ticket.

Dallas 30, N.Y. GIANTS 23 (+3) - Unlike the Raiders and Seahawks, the Cowboys look like they are going to get a break in the weather: A 37-degree kickoff-time temperature is projected, albeit with a small chance of showers. Looks like both NFC wild cards will be up for grabs - two weeks after the Giants appeared to have one of them all but sewn up.


MONDAY NIGHT

NEW ENGLAND 23, Baltimore 20 (+8) - The Patriots are all but staggering into the playoffs, and the home team in this series is 0-6-1 against the spread in the last seven. This is one of these "absolutely no reason to lay this number" situations. So don't lay it.


BEST BETS: KANSAS CITY, WASHINGTON, GREEN BAY

Last edited by Anthony; 12-07-2016 at 11:40 AM.
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