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Old 10-30-2019, 07:38 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 9 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 10-5. Season totals: 49-69-3, Pct. .417. Best Bets: 11-12-1, Pct. .479.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

San Francisco
23, ARIZONA 10 (+9 1/2) - The 49ers have lost eight straight to Arizona, but the Cards have lost by 18 at home to the Panthers and by 17 at home to the Seahawks, and last week, by 22 on the road to the Saints, casting grave doubt on their ability to hang with the big boys. With their defense totally outmanning the Arizona offense, the Niners know that they don't need to score too many points to win this game, so be careful here.


SUNDAY

Houston
24, Jacksonville 16 (+2 1/2) - The fourth and final game to be played in London this year, and with Daylight Saving Time ending this weekend, viewers in Hawaii get a bit of a break in that this game will start at 4:30 in the morning instead of 3:30. No break for the Jags though: They're 2-9 straight up against the Texans since 2014, and the dreaded "weasel line" makes it well-nigh impossible for them to cover if they don't reverse form and beat Houston outright.

N.Y. Jets 21, MIAMI 20 (+4) - The Dolphins are 3-0 against the spread since their Week 5 bye, and the Jets have lost 10 in a row on grass, their most recent victory on said surface occurring on October 8, 2017. Ex-Jet Ryan Fitzpatrick should lead Miami to at least a cover - and the unthinkable, for those in South Florida who desperately want Tua Tagovailoa, could very well happen.

PHILADELPHIA 17, Chicago 10 (+5) - Several injured Eagles, including the most important one of all, DeSean Jackson, could be returning to action this week - and the Bears have shown very little action in the series of late, losing the last four by a gargantuan 130-43. As in the old TV game show Concentration, which provided the inspiration for the Gen-X classic board game Husker Du, every time more parts of the Mitchell Trubisky puzzle get revealed, the more of the word "bust" gets revealed.

BUFFALO 14, Washington 7 (+10) - Did the Bills peak too early? Their last two, both at home, were too bad to be believed - and the Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name has played three straight excellent games on defense, so point-taking is clearly indicated.

PITTSBURGH 20, Indianapolis 16 (+1) - Games can get ugly in a hurry when October gives way to November (this is the time of year when temperatures fall most sharply from week to week). Like what the Colts did the last two weeks in keeping their roof open, but Indianapolis is still 4-12 straight up as a visitor outdoors since 2017, and has lost five in a row to the Steelers.

CAROLINA 17, Tennessee 14 (+4 1/2) - The home team in this series is 1-4 both ways lifetime. A last-second field goal, made or missed, decides this one.

KANSAS CITY 27 (+2 1/2), Minnesota 10 - With this week begins the "cold weather season," when warm-weather or dome teams having to play on the road at northern, outdoor stadiums becomes an issue - and when a domed team has to play outdoors, in cold weather, and on natural grass, all in the s]ame game, it is known as a "Triple Witching Hour" game - and since vacating storied Metropolitan Stadium and taking up residence indoors in 1982, Minnesota is 13-39-1 straight up and 19-31-3 against the line in such games. And if that's not enough, the home team in this series has won and covered five in a row, and the Vikings have not won or covered at Arrowhead since 1974. Best bet of the week whether Mahomes plays or not.

Detroit 28 (+2), OAKLAND 20 - The Lions are 3-1-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in their last five on grass dating back to last December - and the plucky, overachieving Raiders, whose best days are two or three years ahead of them, have lost and non-covered four straight to Detroit.

SEATTLE 31, Tampa Bay 14 (+6) - Why only six points? Since 2013, Tampa Bay is an abysmal 5-24 straight up and 9-18-2 against the line as a visitor on the carpet, and the home team in this series is 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the line in the last six. This line should be in double-digit territory.

Cleveland 23, DENVER 0 (+3) - One day after kvetching about his team's "not to lose" play-calling, Joe Flacco sustained a neck injury that could sideline him for up to six weeks. So Brandon Allen becomes the third quarterback with that surname to start in the NFL this year (who's next, if another quarterback gets injured or benched - Woody Allen?) after having been drafted in the sixth round by the Jaguars in 2016 before cut by them at the end of preseason in 2017 and then doing the active-roster-to-practice-squad-and-back-again-dance with the Rams until being cut by them and signing with Denver in on September 1. So anyone who has Phillip Lindsay on their fantasy team would be well advised to sit him this week - because the Browns are sure to stick eight or even nine in the box on every play to stop Lindsay and make Brandon Allen beat them.

Green Bay 31, L.A. CHARGERS 17 (+3) - In 2018-19 the Chargers are 2-10 against the spread at home compared with 10-4 on the road - and they're 1-10 straight up and 3-8 against the spread lifetime versus Green Bay, getting outscored 342-186 therein including the lone victory, which was in 1984.

New England 12, BALTIMORE 7 (+3 1/2) - Only the existence of point spreads has made New England's games at all interesting this year - and while the Ravens have played the Patriots relatively tough in the past, Team Modell is nonetheless 3-11 straight up (albeit 6-6-2 against the spread) versus them dating back to 1995, when they were still Cleveland 1.0. A win gives the Pats what is very likely an insurmountable lead in the race for home field throughout the AFC playoffs - but with their kicking game woes, they might score two touchdowns and miss both extra points.


MONDAY NIGHT

Dallas 17, N.Y. GIANTS 13 (+7) - Maybe if the Giants didn't lead the league with 19 turnovers, their record would be better than 2-6; and this year and last combined America's Team is 1-4 when wearing blue jerseys, and 13-5 in the rest of their games. Plus it's also not only a cold-weather game, but a cold-weather game played at night, making it even colder.


BEST BETS: KANSAS CITY, CLEVELAND, GREEN BAY

Last edited by Anthony; 10-30-2019 at 08:20 PM.
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