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Old 10-15-2014, 04:53 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 7 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 7-8. Season totals: 47-43-1, Pct. .522. Best Bets: 6-12, Pct. .333.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

NEW ENGLAND 20, N.Y. Jets 13 (+8 1/2) - The Jets were on their way to an apparent sleazy half-point cover last week until Geno Smith served up a pick-six with 15 seconds left on the clock. But the home team in this series has scarcely been able to buy a cover, sleazy or otherwise, lately, doing so just once in the last seven meetings - and that came when the Jets, who have covered four in a row in Foxboro despite winning only one of them straight up, pulled off the upset over the Patriots at home in Week 7 of last year. And with Tom Brady hobbled by an ankle injury he insists on playing through - and leading rusher Stevan Ridley sustaining a season-ending injury in the win at Buffalo? Take the points.


SUNDAY

DALLAS
24, N.Y. Giants 10 (+4 1/2) - The real tragedy of the Victor Cruz injury is that he shouldn't have even been on the field at all when it happened, because the Giants clearly should have kicked a field goal instead, if for no other reason than to break up the shutout - they were behind 20-0 with 9:39 left in the third quarter; compare the Buccaneers, who did try a field goal down 38-0 with 10:55 remaining in the third quarter (and made it). But since they didn't take what would have been an easy three points and did end up getting shut out, they are on the business end of the same trend that I referenced in my comments on the Jets game last week - and it will be a while before the Cowboys get tired of beating the Giants at Jerry World, finally doing so last year after having lost the first four times they hosted the Giants there.

BUFFALO 16, Minnesota 7 (+4 1/2) - Doug Marrone would be well advised to swallow his pride and go back to E.J. Manuel at quarterback - but it likely makes no difference here unless the Vikings do the same thing as regards Adrian Peterson, which they clearly won't do because it wouldn't be "politically correct;" and with no running game at all to take the pressure off him, expect Teddy Bridgewater's fiery baptism to continue, especially on the road.

Tennessee 27 (+4), WASHINGTON 14 - After having been listed as questionable throughout last week before being declared inactive less than two hours before kickoff time, assume that Jake Locker will be listed as probable for this game - and will in fact play. That will give the Titans an insurmountable edge at the quarterback position - Kirk Cousins remained eligible for "non-winners of two lifetime" and dropped to 1-7 as a starter last week (and cost those who bet on Washington a half-point cover with a pick-six in the closing seconds just like Geno Smith did) - and here's a shocking fact: There have been eleven games played between the Oilers/Titans and The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name all told - and the underdog has covered the spread in all eleven of them, even winning seven outright, including the last five.

JACKSONVILLE 14 (+4), Cleveland 13 - The Jags finally crawled last week (by covering the spread for the first time this season), so maybe now it's time for them to walk? And if you missed Cleveland's wedding (not only beating the Steelers for just the third time in their last 23 games against them, but doing so by the biggest margin ever for the post-Art Modell Browns franchise), you may want to miss the funeral. Upset special.

New Orleans 27 (+2 1/2), DETROIT 21 - Unlike last week, here the absence of Calvin Johnson will matter, with the Lions facing a team that has absolutely owned them of late, beating them four straight times by a total of 84 points. Detroit is also going through some very real kicking-game woes - five missed field goals in the last two games, with two different kickers - and is 5-12 straight up and 6-11 against the line in fatigue games, while New Orleans has won and covered five in a row off the bye. Both this game (from Detroit's perspective) and this line have "trap" written all over them. Don't fall into it.

INDIANAPOLIS 33, Cincinnati 23 (+3) - An injured wide receiver figures to be sorely missed here as well - in this case A.J. Green; and the home team in this one has won five in a row by a combined 161-81, and the Bengals have been outscored 190-93 in their last six at Indianapolis, all losses. Look for the underrated and overlooked Colts to continue their winning ways after opening the season with two narrow losses to 2013 playoff teams.

BALTIMORE 38, Atlanta 14 (+7) - Mike Smith has "earned" his way to the top of the endangered head coaches list and not only have the Falcons lost ten consecutive games and counting outdoors, but you have to go all the way back to 1971 to find their last road win over the Modell/Bisciotti Franchise - four losses to it since then by a combined 63 points.. They won't break either streak here. They won't even come close.

Miami 24 (+3), CHICAGO 20 - I like the spunk that the Dolphins have been showing this year, and they're 3-1 both ways lifetime at Chicago while the home team is 1-6 both ways in the last seven Bears games dating back to last year's season finale. Willing to take a shot with Miami again.

GREEN BAY 31, Carolina 28 (+7) - Apparently the tie at Cincinnati, which snapped an eleven-game regular-season home winning streak for the Bengals, was not enough to stop the morbid undervaluing of the Panthers by the oddsmakers. And this one isn't even on artificial turf, so there is absolutely no reason to lay the number in this spot.

Seattle 20, ST. LOUIS 10 (+6 1/2) - Can we stop hearing about how Russell Wilson is an "elite" quarterback? With Wilson under center, the Seahawks ranked 27th in the league in passing offense in 2012, 26th in 2013, and are 31st so far this year. Still, since 2005, Seattle is 16-2 straight up and 11-6-1 against the spread versus the Rams, and Austin Davis' bubble - to the extent that there ever even was one - burst in the second half Monday night.

SAN DIEGO 27, Kansas City 20 (+5 1/2) - Has Fat Boy lost his magic coming off a bye week? After going undefeated in his first 13 such games in Philadelphia (in the regular season), he lost his last such outing with the Eagles in 2012, then dropped his post-bye debut with the Chiefs last year. And while the Chargers have beaten KC in eleven of the last 13, their spread record therein is just 7-6 and it is back-to-back fatigue games for San Diego, so be careful.

Arizona 24, OAKLAND 21 (+4) - Even though they didn't win, I really liked what I saw of the Raiders in their first game under Tony Sparano - enough to at least take them with the points against an Arizona team that may very well get caught looking ahead to upcoming back-to-back games against NFC East - and for that matter, in the NFL overall - co-leaders Philadelphia and Dallas.

DENVER 35, San Francisco 31 (+6 1/2) - Another game in which looking ahead could play a key role: The Broncos weren't expected to have any trouble at all winning the AFC West again, but here they are, in mid-October, a half-game behind in the division - and they will host the team that leads them (San Diego) a mere four days after this game. And in any event, it is hard to envision the 49ers getting this many points against anybody, so you have to take it.


MONDAY NIGHT

PITTSBURGH
17, Houston 10 (+4) - Remember what happened to the Texans last year after they started 2-0? Just saying - but they absolutely, positively, have to do something about their quarterback situation as soon as possible. It is ruining what would otherwise be at least a playoff-contending team.


BEST BETS: TENNESSEE, INDIANAPOLIS, BALTIMORE
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