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Old 11-11-2007, 11:25 PM   #1
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Default Luck and the BCS


For the most part the NCAA has been lucky the past few years with the BCS selections at seasons end. Still many look back at Auburn's undefeated season and got passed up by Oklahoma for a title shot. For an SEC team to go without a loss only to be left out in the big game really makes fans scratch their heads with questions.
With that being said, there's going to be a lot of head scratching and questions ask even more if luck doesn't hold up for the BCS for the Top four teams. As I see it, when the BCS poll comes out later today, LSU will move to the #1 slot with the Ohio States loss yesterday. With Oregon being off, there's always that possibility that Kansas may leapfrog the Ducks. No matter the case, those should be your top three.
The Ducks may have a slight advantage not having to play in a conference championship game like LSU and Kansas will do. That may be the luck the BCS is looking for, hoping Kansas meet their fate there with a loss. But if the Jayhawks, Duck, and Tiger run out, what then.
How can a committee leave out a Oregon team that has lost one game by on yard to Cal is a nail bitter. Or a Kansas club that has done what it's been ask to do. And they have won big. Could it be possible that LSU with poor outings against Ole Miss and Arkansas then play bad in the conference championship game, could slip from the top spot? According to the BCS that in fact is possible. Then the BCS would have to bring in a Rocket scientist to figure this mess out.
I can't see leaving any on the three out if all finish strong. Some poor bastard is going to have the Auburn experience. And that's terrible for college football. It's finally time for a change, fans demand it.
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Old 11-13-2007, 11:24 AM   #2
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Some poor bastard is going to have the "Utah Exeperience" from 2004...not the "Auburn Experience".

Though SOS as a direct component in the BCS had been removed prior to the 2004 season due to USC being left out in 2003 all 6 computer rankings factored SOS into their overall ranking in 2004 and still do so today.

Prior to the 2004 bowl season all 6 computers, including Jeff Sagarin who is the most noted and respected of the group, had Oklahoma, USC and Utah with a higher SOS than Auburn.

Utah was the first to be left out...not Auburn.

In fact, Sagarin's final SOS for 2004 (post-bowls) had Utah at #67 with Auburn at #60. The only way Auburn overtook Utah after the bowls was because the Utes knocked off a weak Pittsburgh (final AP ranking of #25) in their bowl while the Tigers beat a strong V Tech (final AP ranking of #10).

The only season in BCS history in which a team with a better SOS was left out of the title game was 2006 when Florida (#17) went over Michigan (#12).

If you ignore the fact that Florida/the SEC/Urban Meyer received preferential treatment in 2006 (though it's hard to do) and simply go back to the established standard of any undefeated BCS team getting in (provided there are no more than 2) and the first 1-loss team with the highest SOS than the following would be the case IF the season ended today.

One BCS undefeated...

Kansas - IN

Strongest SOS among all 1-loss teams

1. Oregon: #12
2. LSU: #19
3. Arizona State: #27
4. West Virginia: #50
5. Missouri: #52
6. Ohio State: #55
7. Oklahoma: #82

It's clear: Oregon vs. Kansas if it ended today.

Kind of ironic that the SOS relationship right now between Oregon and LSU is 12-19 when the controversy last year was 12-17. Screwing over the Big Ten and Pac Ten by the slimmest of margins must be vogue.

Last edited by buckeyefan78; 11-13-2007 at 11:51 AM.
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Old 11-13-2007, 11:27 AM   #3
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I like the BCS. I think it is "as good as it gets" right now. It is rare that there are legitmate problems in terms of crowning a champion. They usually get it right.
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Old 11-13-2007, 11:38 AM   #4
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All I know is LSU is number one and Ohio St is not.:thumbup:
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