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Old 09-25-2018, 05:59 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 4 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 6-10. Season totals: 20-27-1, Pct. .427. Best Bets: 5-4, Pct. .556.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

L.A. RAMS 24, Minnesota 20 (+7) - In the first of this week's "throw-out games," throw out what happened to the Vikings Sunday against Buffalo: They were stone cold looking ahead to this game, and after going 3-0 over three teams who are a combined 1-8, the water gets much deeper here for the Rams, who have dropped five straight to Minnesota and were outscored 153-63 doing it. The Rams stay undefeated in 2018, but their backers won't.


SUNDAY

JACKSONVILLE
23, N.Y. Jets 10 (+8 1/2) - And it is looking ahead's opposite number - letdown - that makes Jacksonville's home loss to the Tennessee last week worthy of the throw-out tag: The Jags were coming off avenging their loss to the Patriots in last year's AFC championship game, the first win by a team in that situation in nine tries in 2017-18. They were also without Leonard Fournette, and his three backups - T.J. Yeldon, Corey Grant, and Brandon Wilds - accounted for just 60 yards in his absence. And the Jets have had their problems on grass, going 10-21 straight up and 12-19 against the spread on it since 2011, including allowing the Browns to snap their 19-game winless streak last Thursday night.

N.Y. GIANTS 35 (+4), New Orleans 24 - As per the classic Dinah Washington song, what a difference a win makes - and not just a win, but one in which Eli Manning (remember him?) went 25 out of 29 for 297 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. And the home team in this series has won five in a row, and they're getting points.

NEW ENGLAND 21, Miami 17 (+7) - All of a sudden the Patriots can't score points (19 per game in their first three) and Ryan Tannehill is 10-1 straight up and 9-1-1 against the spread in his last 11 starts. Take the points.

ATLANTA 35, Cincinnati 20 (+5 1/2) - The Falcons were the victims of the most unfair rule in the book last week - they lost a coin toss to start overtime, in which they never got a possession. They call Atlanta "The City Too Busy To Hate" - but the Bengals call it "The City Too Hard For Us To Win Or Cover At": They haven't done either since 1987, dropping three out of three both ways by a combined 107-52.

INDIANAPOLIS 23, Houston 17 (+2) - Cleveland's win last Thursday night has left the Texans with the NFL's longest active losing streak, at nine games, and their 0-8-1 spread record therein is also the league's worst over that span. Their 2-14 straight-up lifetime record at Indianapolis doesn't help their cause either.

Philadelphia 17, TENNESSEE 6 (+3) - The Titans have the slowest and just plain worst wide receiver corps in the NFL, so a repeat of the thorough strafing the Eagle secondary suffered in their road opener two weeks ago seems unlikely. Furthermore, the Titans are on letdown watch coming off their upset of AFC South rival Jacksonville.

CHICAGO 21, Tampa Bay 13 (+3) - One three-interception loss by Ryan Fitzpatrick and the fans in Tampa Bay no doubt want Mr. Crab Legs back under center (he comes off suspension this week). Some fan bases don't deserve a team - and some do, like San Antonio, about to attain a population of a million and a half, and Columbus, whose population is almost as large as that of Cleveland and Cincinnati combined.

DALLAS 24, Detroit 17 (+3 1/2) - And speaking of fans, Dallas fans want to tar-and-feather everyone from Dak Prescott to Jason Garrett, and have gotten so bent out of shape that they want the totally washed-up Dez Bryant brought back. Hopefully this win over a team that always manages to bleep up just when it looks like they have turned the corner will make them come to their senses.

GREEN BAY 31, Buffalo 13 (+10 1/2) - Can't remember who said it, but someone said that the Packers are not a great team. They are a great home team - and the home team in this series has both won and covered in the last seven meetings.

ARIZONA 23 (+3 1/2), Seattle 20 - Apparently the Cardinals adhere to the "never trade a player to a division rival" doctrine; otherwise, Sam Bradford would already be a 49er. Instead, Bradford has been benched, and Josh Rosen will make his first NFL start - and we all know what Mike Francesa said about giving points on the road.

OAKLAND 21, Cleveland 14 (+1) - The Raiders have the second-longest current losing streak in the NFL, seven games (also coverless with one push in the streak, same as Houston) - but Cleveland has lost 22 in a row on the road, four shy of the all-time record held by Detroit from mid-2007 until late 2010, and is 7-15 against the spread therein and has been outscored 612-342 - and bad things happen to the Browns whenever they have to play anywhere near the West Coast: Cleveland 2.0 is 4-16 straight up in franchise history in the Mountain and Pacific time zones.

L.A. CHARGERS 35, San Francisco 0 (+9 1/2) - And when I say nothing, I mean exactly that: Instead of going all out to trade for Nick Foles or even Sam Bradford, the 49ers are standing pat with a proven 7-high in C.J. Beathard. Plus they have dropped four straight to the Chargers by a combined 62 points. Following the infamous Joe Pisarcik "Fumble" game in 1978, hundreds of Giants fans burned their tickets and sent them to Wellington Mara in a bedpan. I wouldn't blame 49er fans one bit if they did the same thing to John York, unless the team does trade for Foles or Bradford.

PITTSBURGH 16, Baltimore 10 (+3) - If the Bengals lose their afternoon game, the Steelers can take over the lead in the AFC North with a win here - and a close,-low-scoring, dull game in this series is overdue, as two of the last three meetings, all won by Pittsburgh, had totals of 58 or higher.


MONDAY NIGHT

Kansas City 31
, DENVER 24 (+5) - The main reason the Chiefs keep on winning the AFC West is because they have been dominating their division rivals so thoroughly - five consecutive wins (and covers) over the Broncos, nine in a row over the Chargers (7-2 against the spread), and six of the last seven over the Raiders (5-2 against the spread). The Broncos might be able to keep this game close enough at home to cover, but I wouldn't bet on it - and neither should you.


BEST BETS: N.Y. GIANTS, GREEN BAY, L.A. CHARGERS
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