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Old 11-26-2015, 09:39 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 12 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 8-6. Season totals: 68-87-5, Pct. .441. Best Bets: 11-20-2, Pct. .364.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team, selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY

DETROIT
28 (P), Philadelphia 17 - Every day a new scandal comes out involving the Eagles, leading to the now all but universal speculation that Chip Kelly is on the way out - and while their 6-0 record on Thanksgiving dating back to 1939 (!) is receiving more than a fair share of publicity, considerably less-well-known, but arguably more relevant, in addition to their conflagrated locker room, is their 2-5-1 spread record since 2012 inside NFL domes.

DALLAS 31, Carolina 24 (+1) - Forget about America's Team: The Cowboys are Valtrex's Team - because it is indeed a brand new day for them with Tony Romo back: Not only is Romo 27-6 lifetime in November including 16-2 at home, but he's 4-0 against the Panthers, who can be accurately characterized as Thumann's Team with all the hot-dogging they're doing. But they're pretty cold dogs on artificial turf - 9-22-1 straight up and 10-22 against the spread since 2008, and in domes (assuming the roof at Jerry World will be closed, as it wasn't in their last home game for the first time since 2012) - 8-15 outright and 9-13-1 pointwise since that same year. So ignore the apparent illogicality of a 3-7 team being favored against a 10-0 team.

GREEN BAY 38, Chicago 14 (+9) - The Packers righted the ship last week, and that ship rarely encounters rough seas when facing the Bears, either straight up (10-1 in the last 11 versus Chicago) or even against the spread (9-2) - and won't here either.


SUNDAY

N.Y. Giants
27, WASHINGTON 17 (+1) - And Kelly may not be the only endangered NFC East head coach, after the Giants make it six in a row both ways over The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name (which is also an NFL-worst, in percentage terms, 6-16 in fatigue games, as the Giants were among the last batch of teams having byes, last week) and disabuses Jay-Jay of any silly playoff notions he might have had.

Miami 20 (+3), N.Y. JETS 14 - Usually one of the two New York/Jersey teams play in the early time slot and the other in the late time slot (unless one of them either has a Thursday, Sunday or Monday night game, or a bye), but that is not the case this week for some reason. Also not the case is the Dolphins having lost the first meeting at home and now have to play the Jets on the road, as the first meeting was in London - and you can't possibly like what the Jets have been doing in the last five weeks, and Miami already has one cold-weather win this year, in Philadelphia two weeks ago.

ATLANTA 27, Minnesota 20 (+2) - Minnesota's bubble may have burst last week, and despite their four-game losing streak, the Falcons can actually take something resembling a commanding lead in the NFC wild-card race with a win.

JACKSONVILLE 17, San Diego 14 (+4 1/2) - Jacksonville's heaviest favoritism since the 2011 season finale. Will this heady wine prove too much for them - especially facing a team that has beaten them four in a row by a combined 133-47? Take the points.

CINCINNATI 27, St. Louis 10 (+9) - If the Bengals can't beat Case Keenum, and do it convincingly, they will be in real danger of becoming the first team in modern history to miss the playoffs after starting 8-0, or for that matter, even 7-0.

TENNESSEE 28 (+2), Oakland 23 - Marcus Mariota (who could be reunited with his college coach next year, according to one hot rumor) is a just plain better quarterback than Derek Carr, and TTTSBKATNO - The Team That Should Be Known As The Nashville Oilers - has won the last three meetings.

HOUSTON 31, New Orleans 17 (+3) - Since anybody who was really paying attention could have predicted what was going to happen to the Eagles and Lions this year, the Saints just might be the NFL's biggest disappointment this season - and the home team in this one has never disappointed, taking all three previous tilts, both ways, by an aggregate 94-53.

KANSAS CITY 20, Buffalo 16 (+5 1/2) - Tyrod Taylor has just had his rite of passage - courtesy of the oddsmakers, who held up posting a line on this game because Taylor (shoulder) is questionable. But Rex Ryan seems to think that Taylor will play even though he was "limited" in practice on Wednesday (whatever that is supposed to mean) and the Bills are 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in their last four at Arrowhead so I'll have faith in both and take the points.

INDIANAPOLIS 21, Tampa Bay 14 (+3) - Let's not overdo it just because the Buccaneers blew out a dumpster fire last week - and Matt Hasselbeck is 3-0 in relief of the injured Andrew Luck and the Colts have covered the spread in their last four against Tampa.

Arizona 33, SAN FRANCISCO 24 (+10 1/2) - Lay this number on the Cardinals in The City That's Known For Its Freedom (even though the games are actually in Santa Clara now) when they have lost their last six there and have been outscored 164-73 doing it? Can't bring myself to do that. If things go just the right way (Arizona having the ball with a two-score but non-covering lead late in the game, and running out the clock instead of trying to score more), the 49ers can manage to cover.

SEATTLE 24, Pittsburgh 9 (+4) - It was at this exact same point last year - after ten games - that the Seahawks made their storied run that fell short only at the 1-yard line in the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh last won or covered in Seattle in 1983, going 0-4 there since by a combined 99-35.

New England 27, DENVER 13 (+3 1/2) - Beating Jay Cutler on a failed two-point conversion is one thing. Getting the best of Tom Brady head-to-head is another, entirely - and this New England defense, currently ranked 15th overall, is a lot better than the one they had in 2011, which was 31st. It's way too early to tell if Brock Osweiler will ever be able to fill Peyton Manning's shoes - but right now, this is almost certainly too much to ask of him, too soon.


MONDAY NIGHT

Baltimore
16 (+1), CLEVELAND 0 - The last time I looked, Johnny Manziel, 1) Is over the age of 21, and 2) Prohibition was repealed in 1933. Therefore, his convenient, sudden demotion, after having ostensibly been promised the starting job for the rest of the season, is an obvious attempt by the Cleveland front office to get where they really want to go: To the number one pick in the 2016 draft.


BEST BETS: DALLAS, GREEN BAY, N.Y. GIANTS
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