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Old 10-01-2014, 06:13 AM   #1
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Cool Anthony's Week 5 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 10-3. Season totals: 31-29-1, Pct. .516. Best Bets: 5-7, Pct. .417.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.


31, Minnesota 17 (+10) - Had this game been on Sunday instead, Teddy Bridgewater would probably have been able to play. With the game on Thursday night instead, his prospects are quixotic at best - and you mean to tell me that constantly making their games wander through the week like this is less damaging to the players' health than merely transferring two games from the "Don't Count" column to the "Do Count" column would be?


27, Atlanta 13 (+3) - It's the Falcons outdoors again. That's all you need to know.

SAN DIEGO 24, N.Y. Jets 20 (+7) - For the second time in this still-young season, the Jets are significant underdogs, on the road, to a team that has three consecutive division games coming up. Expect the same result: The Jets don't win, but they do cover.

St. Louis 19 (+8), PHILADELPHIA 17 - After rushing for 1,607 yards last year, LeSean McCoy is on pace for 768 this season - because everyone is shoving eight and even nine guys in the box to stop him and let the Eagles' slowest-in-the-league receivers, in DeSean Jackson's absence, beat them. Chip Kelly a genius? If Chip Kelly is a genius, then Billie Jean King was a male chauvinist and Tiny Tim a baritone. Actually, Kelly is Hitler, and Jackson is Anne Frank. The week's upset special, as the Eagles go to 1-5 straight up in their last half-dozen fatigue games (the Rams had a bye last week).

CAROLINA 20, Chicago 13 (+2 1/2) - If the Panthers and the Colts were to play each other, what would the oddsmakers do, in that they seem to have an intense disdain for both teams? Instead of not even a field goal, this line should be almost a touchdown, and there is no apparent reason in this spot to go against the obvious value.

Pittsburgh 27, JACKSONVILLE 23 (+6) - Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin and defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau probably can't figure out how Mike Glennon passed for 302 yards and led the previously-winless Buccaneers to a come-again win over them last week. And here they face a young quarterback with a lot more promise in Blake Bortles (who will be making his first home start), and Pittsburgh is 8-16 against the line as a road favorite since 2009 so taking the points is the definite thing to do.

DETROIT 24, Buffalo 0 (+7) - As if the fact that the home team in this series has won five in a row (3-1-1 against the spread) and that the Bills are 5-19 straight up and 7-17 against the spread indoors since 1999 weren't reasons enough to take the Lions, Buffalo head coach Doug Marrone has thrown a temper tantrum and has benched E.J. Manuel in favor of Kyle "Have Mediocre (if even that) Talent, Will Travel" Orton. This will accomplish nothing except to destroy Manuel's self-confidence.

INDIANAPOLIS 28, Baltimore 14 (+3) - More disrespect for the Colts, who clearly should be favored here by a TD, or very close to it; and the last time The Modell/Bisciotti Franchise won in Indianapolis, it was known as the (original) Cleveland Browns - in 1994, and they have been outscored 71-16 in their last three games there. The home team has also won the last three meetings regardless of where played by an imposing 68-22. Another obvious easy pick in a week that has many of them.

Cleveland 20 (+1 1/2), TENNESSEE 10 - Had to look long and hard for a line on this game, because Jake Locker is questionable with the wrist injury that kept him out of last week's fiasco at Indianapolis - the third straight week that the Titans have been missing in action, getting thumped 103-34 following a miscue-aided win at Kansas City in the opener; by stark contrast, both of Cleveland's losses went down to the game's final play. Tennessee is also converting third downs at a cavernous 26% rate in 2014. How bad is that? The next worst team (Oakland) is 33% on third downs.

NEW ORLEANS 27, Tampa Bay 21 (+11) - At 1-3, it's pretty much all over but their spot in the 2015 draft order for the Saints, in that only 15% of 1-3 starters have made the playoffs since the 12-team playoff era began in 1990, and exactly one such team has ever won the Super Bowl - and that team (the 2001 Patriots) played the fifth-place schedule, which no longer exists. Not ready to proclaim Lovie Smith right in tabbing Mike Glennon has his "quarterback of the future" just yet; but, Glennon or not, Tampa Bay plus eleven points against what is essentially a fellow non-contender looks more than attractive enough in the here-and-now.

DALLAS 35, Houston 13 (+4) - The Texans on artificial turf. Enough said, and then some.

DENVER 33, Arizona 17 (+8 1/2) - Both teams are coming off a bye, and the Broncos are second best in the league at doing that straight up - 19-6, and second to none against the spread - also 19-6. And the Cardinals have yet to win in Denver, taking an 0-for-4 collar there and getting outscored 106-32 doing it. Carson Palmer, who insists he will return this week, may need a game.

SAN FRANCISCO 28, Kansas City 10 (+6 1/2) - Another pick that required no back-and-forth deliberation whatsoever: The 49ers got back on track last week, especially on defense (all 21 points the Eagles scored were unearned), and the home team in this series has won eight consecutive games by an aggregate margin of 237 to 83.

NEW ENGLAND 27 (P), Cincinnati 20 - The Patriots get to keep off the grass (on which they fell to 1-5 straight up in 2013-14 with Monday night's loss and have now non-covered eight in a row), and that alone is enough to make them a play with no points involved. To that add the fact the Bengals haven't won in Beantown since 1986 (five straight losses), and Cincinnati's penultimate-ranked 7-17-1 straight-up record coming off a bye week, and New England is the pick to begin moving forward from its choppy start.


Seattle 28, WASHINGTON 24 (+7) - Anyone who is automatically going to pick against Washington solely because of what happened in their last game is too far gone for me, or anyone else for that matter, to be of any assistance to them. But for the rest of you, I will assist by pointing out that the only team that has been worse following a bye week than the Bengals is the Seahawks, who are 7-18 doing so (Seattle's 5-18-2 post-bye spread record also trails the entire NFL); that the home team in this series has lost the last three meetings, and that this is a playoff revenge game for The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name, who lost a 2012 wild card game to Seattle during which RG3 sustained his ACL injury, from which he has never really recovered. If the same Kirk Cousins who played brilliantly in Philadelphia two weeks ago shows up again here, Washington should at least keep things close on the grass, as Seattle is 33-60 straight up and 38-51-4 against the line dating all the way back to 1998 as a visitor thereon.


Last edited by Anthony; 10-01-2014 at 07:45 AM.
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