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Old 10-15-2019, 04:51 PM   #1
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Cool Anthony's Week 7 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 7-7. Season totals: 33-56-3, Pct. .375. Best Bets:8-9-1, Pct. .472.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.


22 (+3 1/2), Kansas City 19 - True, the Chiefs have won seven straight over the Broncos, but Patrick Mahomes is playing while impaired - and it shows: Kansas City has averaged 18.5 points per game in the last two after having averaged 33.8 per game in the four games before that. Look for those footballs to go flying between the goal posts the way baseballs go flying over the Green Monster at Fenway Park; and thanks to the "weasel line" of three and a half, if it comes down to a last-second field goal - made or missed - Denver covers.


24, Arizona 17 (+2 1/2) - The other "weasel line" - two and a half - rears its ugly head here. Cardinals have won two straight, and one of them was even on the carpet, upon which they are 25-49 straight up dating all the way back to 2002. But the Giants are a tougher out than the winless Bengals (who Arizona defeated two weeks ago) and should win this.

BUFFALO 27, Miami 3 (+16 1/2) - The Bills are 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four off the bye, while the Dolphins have been outscored 248-111 in their last seven on rugs, losing all seven and covering in only one. New York State's Only Team now has to be considered the second best team in the AFC despite Josh Allen's miserable numbers thus far.

San Francisco 20, WASHINGTON 13 (+9 1/2) - That was a herculean effort the 49ers put forth last week in Los Angeles - but is it the stuff that letdowns are made of? And all of a sudden their game next week against Kyle Allen and the Panthers is the stuff that looking ahead is make of. Trap game. Points taken.

ATLANTA 33 (+3), L.A. Rams 19 - The Falcons are a "strong" 1-5 in that they're 1-1 at home and 0-4 on the road - and there has been nothing strong about the Rams in this series recently: They have lost five in a row to Atlanta by a combined 164-95, and have not won in the Ay-Tee-El since 2001.

CINCINNATI 16 (+4), Jacksonville 13 - You know what Mike Francesa said about giving points on the road - and doing so is especially inappropriate with the Jags on artificial turf, upon which they are a moribund 4-21 straight up since 2013. Upset special.

INDIANAPOLIS 23, Houston 17 (+1) - The Colts had a bye last week, the Texans did not - and Houston has the NFL's second worst record in fatigue games both straight up (4-12) and against the spread (4-10-2; only Arizona is worse in both cases). This won't be a shootout for the Texans like their game last week was.

Minnesota 27 (+1), DETROIT 14 - The Vikings have beaten the Lions three straight by a combined 81-41, and are simply a much more complete team than Detroit. Can't figure out why Minnesota is an underdog.

GREEN BAY 34, Oakland 13 (+7) - The course of this series is living proof of how the worm can take its time turning: After the Packers won Super Bowl II, the Raiders won the next five games, covering in four, by a combined 114-38. Since then, however, Green Bay is 7-0 outright and 6-1 pointwise versus Oakland by a combined 240-90. Meanwhile, the Raiders have been outscored an emphatic 75-36 in their last two off the bye, neither winning nor covering in either game. And with all the attention unbeaten San Francisco is receiving, and New Orleans is getting for winning without Drew Brees, Green Bay is like a UFO flying under the radar in the NFC.

L.A. Chargers 17 (+1), TENNESSEE 10 - Since 2007, teams getting shut out are 21-35 straight up in their next game, and the Chargers are 11-1 straight up and 10-2 against the line in their last dozen versus The Adams Family.

New Orleans 24 (+4), CHICAGO 13 - Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the first prime minister of Bangladesh after it broke away from Pakistan in the early '70s (sparking a humanitarian crisis that prompted an assortment of musicians to organize a "Concert For Bangladesh" similar to the one that put "We Are The World" together in 1985 to aid famine-stricken Ethiopia) was mocked by the foreign policy wonks of the day as "Bangladesh's best liability." Well Mitchell Trubisky, who you can assume will be back this week based on this line, is Chicago's best liability - and the Bears have lost and non-covered five straight off the bye, and also four in a row to New Orleans by a combined 107-58. Stir in the fact that the Saints are 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the line outdoors in 2018-19 and you have the recipe for a best bet.

SEATTLE 27, Baltimore 10 (+3 1/2) - Baltimore is 3-7 both ways since 2016 as a visitor on the carpet (M&T Bank Stadium switched to natural grass that year), and The Modell Franchise (Baltimore/Cleveland 1.0) has not won or covered in Seattle since 1989, getting outscored by an imposing 106-34 in four games there. The weasel will go into hibernation as the Seahawks register another easy win over the Ravens, who they have also outscored 84-29 in the last three meetings regardless of where played.

DALLAS 41, Philadelphia 13 (+3) - If this quarterback matchup were an election, Dak Prescott would win by a landslide: He's 36-21 as a starter to Carson Wentz's 26-20; has completed 66.4% of his passes to Wentz's 63.4%; has 105 total touchdowns (including 22 rushing) to Wentz's 85 (including three rushing); is averaging 7.58 yards per attempt to Wentz's 6.99; 11.41 yards per completion to Wentz's 11.02; and Prescott has nine fourth-quarter comebacks and 15 game-winning drives to Wentz's four fourth-quarter comebacks and five-game winning drives. Plus Dallas has vastly superior talent at running back, wide receiver (certainly while DeSean Jackson remains out), and on defense, especially in the secondary - and after cutting linebacker Zach Brown, who talked enough trash about Kirk Cousins to refill the former Fresh Kills dump on Staten Island in the run-up to last week's loss to the Vikings, Doug Pederson has oh-so-hypocritically "guaranteed" an Eagle victory here. A complete beatdown from flagfall to "that's all."


New England 21, N.Y. JETS 17 (+9 1/2) - Yup, Sam Dah-nold makes that much difference - and while the Pats have beaten the Jets seven in a row, they are just 4-3 against the spread therein and needed two unearned touchdowns to cover against the Giants last Thursday night. So make it five out of five for the home underdogs.

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