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Old 09-14-2016, 12:38 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 2 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 7-9. Season totals: 7-9. Pct. .438. Best Bets: 1-2, Pct. .333.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

BUFFALO
17, N.Y. Jets 10 (+3) - Neither starting quarterback is very good, to be nice about it. But the Bills have beaten the Jets five in a row, including a Thursday nighter last year (on the road). So this is a "UPO" pick - until proven otherwise ...


SUNDAY

N.Y. GIANTS 33, New Orleans 31 (+5 1/2) - True, the home team is 9-1 straight up and 7-1-2 against the spread in the last ten games in this series, but the number looks like at least a mild-to-moderate overlay and it is a "sandwich game" for the Giants - division game last week, division game next week. And if it is also a "last team with the ball wins" game, the Saints almost certainly cover.

NEW ENGLAND 27, Miami 17 (+5 1/2) - If Jimmy Garoppolo can beat the Cardinals on the road, then why can't he beat the Dolphins at home - especially in a series where the home team has won seven in a row and covered eight in a row? And if Rob Gronkowski (hamstring, questionable) plays, the Pats become a borderline best bet.

Dallas 17 (+3), WASHINGTON 13 - This could prove to be one of the defining games in the Cowboys' entire season - in that in 2015-16 The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name is 9-4 straight up against .500 or worse teams, and not only 0-5, but 0-5 by a combined 178-80, against over-.500 teams. The home team in this storied division rivalry has dropped the last five and non-covered four straight, while Dallas is 8-3 straight up and 9-2 against the line since 2014 as a visitor on the grass.

Pittsburgh 24 (+3 1/2), CINCINNATI 20 - The home team lost all three Cincinnati-Pittsburgh games last year - and even if the Steelers don't win, they could very well cover the always-tricky three-and-a-half-point spread.

CAROLINA 23, San Francisco 13 (+11 1/2) - I lost three games last week picking favorites who won but didn't cover, versus only one win picking an underdog who lost but did cover. That will kill you over the long haul - and Chip Kelly has a defense? Who knew? Take the points.

Baltimore 20, CLEVELAND 6 (+4 1/2) - Browns fans are singing the "I Pagliacci" refrain once again, with Josh McClown forced to take over at quarterback in RG3's injury-driven absence for at least six weeks and quite likely longer - and it generally is a sad refrain for Cleveland against the Ravens (2-14 straight up in the last 16), and an even sadder refrain at home (1-7 against the line) than on the road (4-4). Best bet.

DETROIT 21, Tennessee 17 (+5 1/2) - Another weak run defense for the troglodytic Tennessee offense to (maybe) exploit - the Lions allowed 4.22 yards per carry and 18 rushing TDs (third most in the league) in 2015 - and The Adams Family has beaten Detroit four in a row and hasn't lost in Detroit since 1986. Another take.

Kansas City 24 (+2), HOUSTON 16 - Chiefs beat the Texans twice last year, both in Houston, making it three in a row for KC in the series and a four-game pointspread losing streak for its home team. Brock Osweiler will probably improve as the season progresses - so right now Alex Smith probably has the edge.

Indianapolis 30 (+4 1/2), DENVER 17 - Andrew Luck getting four and a half against Trevor Siemian? You're kidding, right? Luck is also 14-6 straight up lifetime on natural grass and the Colts are 8-1 outright and 8-0-1 pointwise in their last nine against Denver.

ARIZONA 31, Tampa Bay 27 (+7) - Arizona defensive coordinator James Bettcher must still be in shock from Jimmy Garoppolo scoring 23 points against him, and without The Gronk, and Jameis Winston won indoors and on artificial turf last week. This is indoors and on natural grass. Bad week for favorites against the spread - and not so great a week for them straight up even.

Seattle 16, LOS ANGELES 0 (+3 1/2) - And with this, Case Keenum becomes the first quarterback since Bill Troup in 1978 (filling in for an injured Bert Jones with the then-Baltimore Colts) to get shut out twice to start a season. Though listed as probable by one source, Russell Wilson's ankle, which he insists is only "a little sore," is keeping this game off most early-week boards.

OAKLAND 30, Atlanta 27 (+6) - Overreacting to a real "doofus" loss by a team the week before - and Matt Ryan's first-ever in a home opener certainly qualifies - is perhaps the deadliest sin in this business, and it becomes even deadlier in this spot with the Falcons having beaten Oakland three in a row and Jack Del Rio living up to the Spanish translation of his last name with the ultimate riverboat gamble he made at the end of last week's game, leaving the Raiders vulnerable to a potential letdown.

SAN DIEGO 35, Jacksonville 16 (+2 1/2) - The Chargers should be well-rested after the nap they took in the second half of their opener in Kansas City, and recently they have been able to beat Jacksonville in their sleep - as in five consecutive wins/covers over the Jags by a combined 164-72. Furthermore, Jacksonville has never won or covered in Santiago de California - 0-3 and outscored 105-48. If San Diego doesn't throw itself a pity party, this will be a bloodbath.

Green Bay 31, MINNESOTA 24 (+2 1/2) - In two lifetime games against the Packers, both as a Ram, Sam Bradford didn't win or cover either time and was outscored 54-23 - and in the present decade Green Bay is 10-2-1 straight up against Minnesota, although just 7-6 against the spread. But the latter is unlikely to come into play with the line at two and a half.


MONDAY NIGHT

Philadelphia
21 (+2 1/2), CHICAGO 16 - Maybe the Eagles had to send Cleveland to a twelfth consecutive opening-day loss - but they didn't have to outgain the Browns by 115 total yards and nearly double their time of possession. And the worm can take its time turning in historical series: The Eagles are 5-2 straight up against the Bears on the road from 1999 to the present. Before that they were 1-19-1.


BEST BETS: BALTIMORE, INDIANAPOLIS, SAN DIEGO
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