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Old 09-28-2004, 05:00 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool NFL Pointspread Contest: Week 4

Here are the opening lines for Week 4:

Sunday, October 3:

New England 5 1/2 over BUFFALO (1:00 PM EDT)
PITTSBURGH 4 1/2 over Cincinnati
Indianapolis 4 over JACKSONVILLE
Washington 1 1/2 over CLEVELAND
Philadelphia 8 1/2 over CHICAGO
GREEN BAY 7 over N.Y. Giants
Oakland Pick'em HOUSTON
CAROLINA 3 1/2 over Atlanta (4:05 PM EDT)
New Orleans 3 1/2 over ARIZONA
N.Y. Jets 4 1/2 over MIAMI (4:15 PM EDT)
Denver 3 over TAMPA BAY
Tennessee 3 over SAN DIEGO
St. Louis 4 over SAN FRANCISCO (8:30 PM EDT)

Monday, October 4:

BALTIMORE 4 over Kansas City (9:00 PM EDT)

BYES: Dallas, Detroit, Minnesota, Seattle

Home team in CAPS.

NOTE: Don't forget to designate three picks as Best Bets. These are used to break ties between pickers with the same overall record; if no Best Bets are included the picker is placed behind all others having the same overall record.

Deadline for posting picks is kickoff of earliest game listed.

Any unpicked game counts as an automatic loss, even if game ends in push vs. spread. If a poster leaves a game unpicked in the original post, the pick on that game may be added before the kickoff of the earliest game played that week, but the addition must be made in a separate post and not by editing the original post (if I notice that someone has left a game unpicked, I will attempt to contact the poster by sending a private message; however there is no guarantee that I will catch every single one, especially in the case of picks posted very late in the week). Under no circumstances can any pick be changed (from one team to the opposing team) once it has been posted.

Pushes count as ties in determining both overall and Best Bet records.

Last edited by Anthony; 09-28-2004 at 12:41 PM.
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Old 09-28-2004, 12:54 PM   #2
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Ugh, I've been awful at this

New England BB
PITTSBURGH
JACKSONVILLE
Washington
CHICAGO
GREEN BAY BB
HOUSTON
Atlanta
ARIZONA
N.Y. Jets
TAMPA BAY
Tennessee BB
SAN FRANCISCO
BALTIMORE
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Old 09-28-2004, 04:55 PM   #3
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New England -5.5
Cincinnati +4.5
Indianapolis -4 (Best Bet)
Washington -1.5
CHICAGO +8.5
GREEN BAY -7
Oakland
CAROLINA -3.5
New Orleans -3.5
MIAMI +4.5
TAMPA BAY +3
SAN DIEGO -3
SAN FRANCISCO +4 (Best Bet)
BALTIMORE -4 (Best Bet)
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Old 09-28-2004, 06:53 PM   #4
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New England (BB)
PITTSBURGH
Indianapolis
Washington
Philadelphia (BB)
GREEN BAY
HOUSTON
Atlanta
New Orleans (BB)
N.Y. Jets]
Denver
Tennessee
St. Louis
BALTIMORE
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Old 09-29-2004, 03:42 AM   #5
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Last week: 8-6. Season totals: 20-25-1, Pct. .446. Best Bets: 4-5, Pct. .444.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team.


SUNDAY

GREEN BAY 41, N.Y. Giants 27 (+7) - The Giants have not won or covered in the state of Wisconsin since 1971 (0-2 both ways at Lambeau and 0-2 at Milwaukee, where the Packers played some home games prior to 1995), and that includes a 1975 game in which they had first and goal at or inside the Green Bay 1-yard line on four separate drives - and didn't score at all on any of them! Brett Favre faces a fellow former league MVP for the second week in a row, and he should emerge with a split as the Giants do not play well on grass (2-7 straight up and 3-6 against the line the past three years).

N.Y. Jets 14, MIAMI 6 (+4 1/2) - "You know it ain't easy, you know how hard it can be; the way things are going, they're gonna crucify me" - John Lennon, 1969; but it just as easily could have been Dave Wannstedt, 2004.

New England 13, BUFFALO 10 (+5 1/2) - Could the Bills complete the ultimate "Holy Ghost" by losing three straight games 13-10? They do have the edge in post-bye form (10-5 straight up and 8-6-1 against the spread to New England's 6-9 and 7-8 respectively) and are thus worth a flyer with the points.

PITTSBURGH 27, Cincinnati 12 (+4 1/2) - If you bet on the Steelers in every first meeting versus the Bengals and against them in every second meeting, that would have yielded ten covers in the last eleven such games. Neither Carson Palmer nor Rudi Johnson have impressed so far, and free-agent pickup middle linebacker Nate Webster has been lost for the season.

Washington 16, CLEVELAND 3 (+1 1/2) - Just because the NHL owners have locked out the players doesn't mean that hat tricks can no longer be scored: The Browns are going for one this week, in that if they lose here that would make it three losses in three weeks to NFC East teams - and with yet another starter (linebacker Ben Taylor) joining their growing injury ranks last week (and for the season too), don't bet against it happening.

Indianapolis 24, JACKSONVILLE 23 (+4) - While I still refuse to believe that the Jaguars are a good football team, there's no reason to follow Ricky Williams into bankruptcy court while waiting for the implosion; meanwhile Peyton Manning's arm probably feels like it's about to fall off after all the passes he threw last week and giving points on the Colts at a venue (natural grass) in which they're 19-26 straight up since 1996 is probably not a good idea so take the points.

Oakland 27, HOUSTON 20 (P) - The four teams that did not win a road game in 2003 went 3-3 straight up and 6-0 against the spread on the road in the first three weeks of 2004 - and until the Texans actually win two in a row you have to assume they can't: Houston is 0-9 straight up and 1-8 against the spread following a victory in franchise history, with an average defeat margin of over 17 points in the nine outings.

Philadelphia 16, CHICAGO 10 (+8 1/2) - On Wednesday morning Mercury, Mars and Jupiter appeared so close to one another as seen from Earth that they almost literally merged into a single object - the first time three planets had been bunched this tightly in more than 1,200 years! (Unfortunately you would have needed to own a telescope the size of a bazooka to have viewed it because they rose less than half an hour before the sun did). The planets seem to be aligning for the Eagles too: First they got to play the Lions without 2003 Pro Bowl cornerback Dre Bly, now the Bears without Rex Grossman; but they have not covered a spread of eight or more on the road since October 11, 1981, the underdog in this series has covered four in a row despite the fact that the Eagles have won all four, and in three games against Lovie Smith as defensive coordinator at St. Louis they scored only 51 points - 17 per game. Take it.

CAROLINA 33, Atlanta 20 (+3 1/2) - The Rams got throttled the week after Arizona played them tough, and last week the Cards played the Falcons even tougher than they played the Rams; plus Atlanta is 1-7 straight up in fatigue games (the Panthers are coming off a bye). Nothing could be finer than to bet on Carolina.

TAMPA BAY 13 (+3), Denver 7 - In their last three road games the Broncos have scored 19 points and only one touchdown, and that during garbage time in last January's blowout loss at Indianapolis in the playoffs. Bucs offense finally showed some life last Sunday night (Brad Johnson's 309 yards passing) and Tampa Bay will pull off the upset.

New Orleans 21, ARIZONA 10 (+3 1/2) - Doubt if the Cardinals have it in them to play two tough games in a row and you gotta figure on them looking ahead to next week's stinkfest at the just-renamed Monster Park. The Saints have also covered four of five lifetime at Tempe, and the lone miss was by a half point.

SAN DIEGO 24 (+3), Tennessee 20 - Based on this number you can assume that the "questionable" Steve McNair will in fact play, but the Titans have simply lost too much personnel at the hands of the salary cap and they weren't much good at covering as road favorites even before that happened (5-11-2 since 2000); upset.

St. Louis 23, SAN FRANCISCO 21 (+4) - Didn't the Rams start 1-2 last year and end up just missing getting home field throughout the playoffs? But it's hard to like them on grass where they've covered only two of their last twelve, or outdoors where they've covered just four of their last 17. In addition, the home team in the series is 5-0-1 versus the points in the six most recent meetings, and a line through Atlanta makes the 49ers that much more attractive in this spot.

MONDAY NIGHT

BALTIMORE 28, Kansas City 17 (+4) - Chiefs are a real mess right now and can't see them turning it around on the carpet, upon which they're 3-8 both ways since 1998.

BEST BETS: PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, CAROLINA

Tennessee at San Diego is in a circle because Titans quarterback Steve McNair is questionable.

Last edited by Anthony; 09-29-2004 at 09:14 AM.
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Old 09-29-2004, 02:24 PM   #6
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BUFFALO
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
Washington (Best bet)
CHICAGO
GREEN BAY
HOUSTON
Atlanta
ARIZONA
N.Y. Jets
Denver 3
San Diego
St. Louis (Best bet)

Monday, October 4:

Kansas City (Best Bet)
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Old 09-30-2004, 05:54 PM   #7
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New England
Pittsburgh
Jacksonville
Washington BB
Philadelphia
Giants
Oakland BB
Atlanta
New Orleans BB
Jets
Denver
Tennessee
St Louis
Kansas City

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Old 09-30-2004, 07:22 PM   #8
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Default Re: NFL Pointspread Contest: Week 4

New England
PITTSBURGH
JACKSONVILLE (BB)
Washington
Philadelphia
N.Y. Giants
HOUSTON
Atlanta
ARIZONA (BB)
MIAMI
Denver
Tennessee
SAN FRANCISCO
BALTIMORE (BB)
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Old 10-02-2004, 11:46 AM   #9
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New England
Pittsburgh
Indianapolis
Washington
Philadelphia (BB)
Green Bay
Oakland
Carolina
New Orleans (BB)
N.Y. Jets (BB)
Denver
Tennessee
St. Louis
Baltimore
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Old 10-02-2004, 02:50 PM   #10
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New England (BB)
Cincinnati
Jacksonville
Washington
Philadelphia
Green Bay (BB)
Houston
Atlanta
New Orleans
N.Y. Jets
Denver
Tennessee
St. Louis (BB)
Kansas City
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Old 10-03-2004, 03:53 AM   #11
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Sunday, October 3:

New England 5 1/2
Cincinnati BB
ndianapolis 4
Washington 1 1/2 (BB)
Philadelphia 8 1/2
GREEN BAY 7
HOUSTON
Atlanta (4:05 PM EDT)
New Orleans 3 1/2
N.Y. Jets (BB)
Denver 3
Tennessee 3
St. Louis 4
Kansas City (9:00 PM EDT)
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Old 10-04-2004, 02:54 AM   #12
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Well, Marc is assured of a least a tie for first place this week going into Monday night's game. If the Chiefs cover, he and bama4256 will finish tied as both would be 8-5-1 and 2-1 in Best Bets. A Ravens cover or a push gives Marc the top spot all by himself.

Complete results after the game.
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Old 10-05-2004, 02:39 AM   #13
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Here are the results for Week 4:

1T. Marc: 8-5-1 (2-1) 37.5 points
1T. bama4256: 8-5-1 (2-1) 37.5 points
3. Doug Graham: 8-5-1 (1-2) 9 points
4. MountaineerDave: 8-5-1 (0-3) 6 points
5. Alex: 7-6-1 (2-1) 4 points
6. KevinBeane: 7-6-1 (1-2) 3 points
7. Nate: 6-7-1 (2-1) 2 points
8. abogdan: 6-7-1 (1-2) 1 point

9T. Hero: 3-10-1 (1-2)
9T. Anthony: 3-10-1 (1-2)


Standings After 4 Weeks

1. Marc: 95.5
2. Doug Graham: 75
3. gconnhokiebird: 72
4. bama4256: 38.5
5. Nate: 34
6. KevinBeane: 25
7T. ESP0704: 13.5
7T. MountaineerDave: 13.5
9. abogdan: 10
10. Hero: 7.5
11. Anthony: 7
12. Alex: 6
13. MaddEnemy: 2.5

Last edited by Anthony; 10-05-2004 at 02:48 AM.
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Old 10-06-2004, 11:54 PM   #14
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Damn, maybe I should do this for money.
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Old 10-07-2004, 03:33 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally posted by Marc
Damn, maybe I should do this for money.

And I'm glad I don't!
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