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Old 04-27-2007, 04:24 PM   #1
tobynosker
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This thread is similar to what I did a year ago during the 2006 summer movie season.

As I mentioned last year, one of the fun things we used to do at a radio station I used to work at was predict how the upcoming summer movies would do at the box office. We would select what we felt would be the top-five grossing films at the box-office that summer, and we would also make a sleeper pick which, although we didn't feel it would crack the top-five for that summer, it would be considered that summer's surprising success.

Last summer I got four out of the top five correct (Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, Cars, Click and Superman Returns) while I gambled and lost with my selection of Monster House -- the actual fifth place finisher in 2006 was Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby.

Also, I failed miserably on my sleeper pick of My Super Ex-Girlfriend, which only managed to score a little over $22 million at the box-office and finished a disappointing 111th as far as audience turnout was concerned in 2006. The true sleeper pick winner of 2006 was The Devil Wears Prada, which grossed over $124 million and went on to earn two Academy Award nominations and a Golden Globe win for Meryl Streep.

In 2006, we only accounted for movies released from the beginning of June until the end of August. This year, we are going to expand the field to include those releases in the month of May.

The films in contention are:

Lucky You - 05/04/07
Spider-Man 3 - 05/04/07
Waitress - 05/04/07
28 Weeks Later - 05/11/07
Delta Farce - 05/11/07
The Ex - 05/11/07
Georgia Rule - 05/11/07
Shrek the Third - 05/18/07
Bug - 05/25/07
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End - 05/25/07
Gracie - 06/01/07
Knocked Up - 06/01/07
Mr. Brooks - 06/01/07
Hostel: Part II - 06/08/07
Ocean's 13 - 06/08/07
Surf's Up - 06/08/07
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer - 06/15/07
Evan Almighty - 06/22/07
Live Free or Die Hard - 06/27/07
Ratatouille - 06/29/07
Transformers - 07/04/07
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix - 07/13/07
Hairspray - 07/20/07
I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry - 07/20/07
The Simpsons Movie - 07/27/07
The Bourne Ultimatum - 08/03/07
Underdog - 08/03/07
Rush Hour 3 - 08/10/07
Daddy Day Camp - 08/10/07
The Visiting - 08/17/07
Revenge of the Nerds - 08/24/07
The Last Legion - 08/24/07
Halloween - 08/31/07
Mr. Bean's Holiday - 08/31/07


Three of May's releases are sequels to three of the top seven largest grossing films of all-time. Shrek 2 ranks third all-time with $441.2 million, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest ranks sixth all-time with $423.3 million and the original Spider Man ranks seventh all-time with $403.7 million (Spider Man 2 grossed $373.6 million and ranks tenth all-time). Sixteen of this summer's releases are either sequels or remakes of previous movies, while three movies are based on or originated as popular television shows. Two more are animated flicks, while another features box-office draw Adam Sandler.

Based on all of this, plus the close proximity in release dates for some of the major players, this summer could either be very hard or one of the easiest ever to predict.

Every week I will post the updated totals from the latest box-office intake, and also link this thread to the reviews in my other thread as soon as they are posted.

What are your thoughts?



For Information Purposes (top-five flicks from previous summers of those that opened at the beginning of May to end of August):
2006: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, Cars, X-Men: The Last Stand, The Da Vinci Code and Superman Returns
2005: Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith, War of the Worlds, Wedding Crashers, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Batman Begins
2004: Shrek 2, Spider-Man 2, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, The Day After Tomorrow and The Bourne Supremacy
2003: Finding Nemo, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, The Matrix Reloaded, Bruce Almighty and X2: X-Men United
2002: Spider-Man, Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Signs and Austin Powers in Goldmember
2001: Shrek, Rush Hour 2, The Mummy Returns, Pearl Harbor and Jurassic Park III
2000: Mission: Impossible II, Gladiator, The Perfect Storm, X-Men and Scary Movie



My Predictions (from biggest grossing movie to least grossing movie):

1.) Shrek the Third
2.) Spider-Man 3
3.) Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
4.) Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
5.) I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry

My Sleeper Pick: Surf's Up

Last edited by tobynosker; 06-20-2007 at 03:26 PM.
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Old 04-27-2007, 06:48 PM   #2
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Going to be a big summer for movies... Shrek, Spider-Man, and Pirates are guaranteed monsters at the box office. I am looking forward to Evan Almighty and Oceans 13.
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Old 04-28-2007, 11:42 AM   #3
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Mr. Brooks sucked. I watched it Thursday.
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Old 04-28-2007, 12:58 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by da12ken
Mr. Brooks sucked. I watched it Thursday.
I am still baffled by those who like Dane Cook.

I will take in Spider-Man 3 sometime next weekend with the girlfriend (who is far more excited than I am), but I first have to find the time to watch the first-two sometime this week.
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Old 05-07-2007, 12:28 PM   #5
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Spider-Man 3 accounted for 80% of the theatrical gross intake over the weekend, setting a new record for the biggest opening weekend ever, grossing $151 million. This surpasses the previous record set by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, which grossed $135.6 million in its opening weekend last year.


The Updated 2007 Summer Movie Chart:
1.) Spider-Man 3 (**.5).....$151 million
2.) Lucky You (*.5).....$2.7 million
3.) Waitress.....$92,034

Last edited by tobynosker; 05-09-2007 at 01:02 PM.
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Old 05-08-2007, 08:49 PM   #6
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I feel sorry for Spider's competition ... ouch. $91,500 was #3? :lol:
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Old 05-08-2007, 09:15 PM   #7
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Well to be fair he is only listing movies considered to be summer releases and Waitress was only showing on 4 theaters last week.
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Old 05-09-2007, 09:14 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc
I feel sorry for Spider's competition ... ouch. $91,500 was #3? :lol:
Quote:
Originally Posted by doublee
Well to be fair he is only listing movies considered to be summer releases and Waitress was only showing on 4 theaters last week.
That's true, but the actual third place finisher for the weekend - Fracture - only managed to take in $3.69 million. That is the lowest total for a third place finisher since Johnny Depp's Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas finished in third place in May of 1998 with a weekend gross of $3.3 million.

Fracture is just the fifth film since 2000 to finish in third place with a weekend gross of less than $5 million, and the first in nearly three years. Those other films include Stuart Little in February of 2000 ($4.7 million), Without a Paddle in September of 2004 ($4.5 million), Bridget Jones's Diary in May of 2001 ($4.45 million) and The Glass House in September of 2001 ($4.4 million).
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Old 05-14-2007, 12:50 PM   #9
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Spider-Man 3 saw its intake drop by over 60% in its second weekend in theaters, but the film still managed to gross an estimated $60 million to raise its total gross to $242 million -- now $16 million below its estimated budget cost.

Lucky You also saw a dramatic increase in its second-weekend, while Waitress was shown in nearly 60-more theaters, and saw a 591% increase in performance.

The three newest, wide-released films for the week were able to do enough business to land in the top-five for the weekend.


The Updated 2007 Summer Movie Chart:
1.) Spider-Man 3 (**.5).....$242 million
2.) 28 Weeks Later.....$10 million
3.) Georgia Rule.....$5.88 million
4.) Lucky You (*.5).....$4.7 million
5.) Delta Farce.....$3.5 million
6.) The Ex.....$1.35 million
7.) Waitress.....$788,000

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Old 05-14-2007, 01:11 PM   #10
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All I can say is with Ebert's health issues (sad), I recommend toby to replace him ... "On this week's Toby and Roeper..."
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Old 05-14-2007, 01:44 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc
All I can say is with Ebert's health issues (sad), I recommend toby to replace him ... "On this week's Toby and Roeper..."
I would probably end up punching Dick in the face!
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Old 05-21-2007, 10:33 AM   #12
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Spider-Man 3's two-week reign at the top of the charts came to an end this weekend, as Dreamworks' Shrek the Third claimed the top-spot, grossing an estimated $121.6 million in its opening weekend. Spider-Man 3 grossed $29 million to finish in second-place.

28 Weeks Later, Georgia Rule and Delta Farce all saw over a 45% decrease in their second-week, while Waitress cracked the weekend top-ten, bringing in a little over $1 million.


The Updated 2007 Summer Movie Chart:
1.) Spider-Man 3 (**.5).....$282.4 million
2.) Shrek the Third (*.5).....$122.5 million
2.) 28 Weeks Later.....$18.9 million
3.) Georgia Rule (**).....$12.87 million
4.) Delta Farce.....$6.1 million
5.) Lucky You (*.5).....$5.49 million
6.) The Ex.....$2.6 million
7.) Waitress.....$2.1 million

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Old 05-23-2007, 03:07 PM   #13
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I saw just part of the Marine and it looked pretty exciting. Must watch the rest.
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Old 05-23-2007, 03:30 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bama4256
I saw just part of the Marine and it looked pretty exciting. Must watch the rest.
I think it is safe to say that Keith and I do not share the same love for movies.

The Marine: 1/2-a-star; only watchable if you enoy laughing at those Steven Seagal, Jean-Claude Van Damme-type action flicks!
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Old 05-29-2007, 12:00 PM   #15
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Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, the sequel to last year's Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest which finished at the top of the box-office in the summer of 2006, became the weakest of the three major film openings in 2007, grossing $115 million over the weekend. Shrek the Third and Spider-Man 3 both saw drops by over 50%, but they also hit a couple of milestones -- Shrek the Third climbed over the $200 million mark by grossing $53 million over the weekend, while Spider-Man 3 has now brought in over $300 million in four weeks, after taking in $14.2 million this weekend.

The only other major studio release for the week was Bug, which grossed $3.3 million to come in third for the weekend. The dark comedy, indie film Waitress cracked the top-five, grossing a little over $3 million.


The Updated 2007 Summer Movie Chart:
1.) Spider-Man 3 (**.5).....$303.97 million
2.) Shrek the Third (*.5).....$203.4 million
3.) Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (***).....$127.97 million
4.) 28 Weeks Later.....$23.67 million
5.) Georgia Rule (**).....$16.3 million
6.) Delta Farce.....$7.2 million
7.) Waitress.....$5.59 million
8.) Lucky You (*.5).....$5.59 million
9.) Bug (***).....$3.2 million
10.) The Ex.....$2.99 million

Last edited by tobynosker; 06-20-2007 at 11:55 AM.
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