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Old 12-17-2015, 02:22 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 15 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 8-6. Season totals: 91-110-5, Pct. .454. Best Bets: 14-26-2, Pct. .357.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

Tampa Bay
24, ST. LOUIS 17 (+1) - Tampa Bay's first time as an opening-line road favorite since the 2013 season opener. Jameis Winston already has two wins indoors and on artificial turf and holds a huge talent edge over Case Keenum.


SATURDAY NIGHT

N.Y. Jets
17, DALLAS 10 (+3) - Dallas has only one non-Tony Romo win, and that was over Kirk Cousins going for two wins in a row. Here's another game the Jets can "lay and pray" and win with their running game and their defense.


SUNDAY

N.Y. GIANTS
24 (+6), Carolina 23 - Sing along with me, and ABBA: "The history book on the shelf, it's always repeating itself." In 1998, the Broncos came into the swamp 13-0, and left 13-1 (and for what it's worth - maybe a lot! - the Giants wound up 8-8 that year); and in a more recent, somewhat less edifying example, in 2007 the Patriots came into the swamp 15-0 - and while they left 16-0, they didn't even come close to covering the two-touchdown spread with their three-point win (and the Giants ended up rematching them in Super Bowl XLII - and upsetting them). Either way, the Panthers don't cover.

Buffalo 27, WASHINGTON 17 (+1) - And speaking of Cousins and two in a row, he will try again here - and The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name will also try to break a six-game losing streak to the Bills, during which they haven't covered either and have been outscored 160 to 63. Buffalo as a best bet on grass? That would really be saying something.

NEW ENGLAND 52, Tennessee 14 (+13 1/2) - It's almost an insult to the readers' intelligence to point out that The Team That Should Be Known As The Nashville Oilers were in fact known as the Houston OIlers the last time they won in Foxboro, in 1993, and that they have lost their last five against the Patriots by a combined 188-80 - as if a mismatch as grotesque as this so much as warrants reciting such facts. The Pats already have one "offensive shutout" - scoring on every possession - this year (in a 51-17 win over Jacksonville in Week 3) - and with Rob Gronkowski already back, they could be in line for another one facing a defense at whose expense Ryan Fitzpatrick earned AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors last week.

JACKSONVILLE 28, Atlanta 10 (+3) - The Falcons are more like a Depression-era house fire than a dumpster fire - think of all the money in the mattress burning up - as their no-cover streak now stands at nine, with every promise of becoming ten at a venue at which they have yet to win. In addition, teams getting shut out, as Atlanta was last week, are 14-32 straight up and 17-28-1 against the spread in their next game since 2007.

Kansas City 14, BALTIMORE 13 (+7) - Matt Schaub, who is expected back here, has won both his lifetime starts against the Chiefs, who have been outscored 97-47 during a current four-game losing streak to Baltimore, and KC is 11-30 straight up and 17-23-1 against the line since 1998 as a visitor on the carpet. So take the points despite the incentive factor.

MINNESOTA 28, Chicago 17 (+5) - The Bears are 4-2 on the road - but just 1-2 on artificial turf, and 3-8 outright and 4-6-1 pointwise since 2013 on it. Wins here, over a team they beat on the road in Week 8, and next week over the Giants, also at home, send the Vikings to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field for their season finale already in the playoffs.

SEATTLE 31, Cleveland 10 (+14) - In their last two games, the Seahawks outscored their opponents 73-13, and outgained them 857 total yards to 447 - and both games were on the road, and against better teams than the Browns. Under the circumstances it's almost Scrooge-like to bring up Cleveland 4-10-1 spread record on outdoor carpets since 2012, and that the home is 3-0-1 against the spread in the head-to-head series.

Green Bay 35, OAKLAND 13 (+2 1/2) - Paraphrasing Fred Capossela, "It is now letdown time" - for the Raiders after snapping their blowout-laced eight-game losing streak to Denver, especially versus a team to which they have lost six in a row by a combined 210-70.

PITTSBURGH 21, Denver 17 (+6) - Even if Brock Osweiler's bubble did burst last week you have to at least take the points with the Broncos and their 20-game winning streak on the road on natural grass, the most recent of which was with Osweiler under center. Between this situation and Cincinnati's, with Andy Dalton quite possibly missing the rest of the season, New England is suddenly back in the driver's seat in the AFC seeding picture.

SAN FRANCISCO 13 (+4 1/2), Cincinnati 10 - A.J. McCarron played his college ball at Alabama, and no Crimson Tide quarterback has won in the NFL since Jeff Rutledge in 1987 - Brodie Croyle, Greg McElroy, and now McCarron having gone a combined 0-11 among them. And the Bengals haven't won in San Francisco since 1974 (0-5 - and with the underdog having covered in all five). That's too many sinces - and too long-sinces - to like Since-innati.

SAN DIEGO 24, Miami 14 (+1 1/2) - Garbage game, but nobody seems to want the top pick in the franchise-playerless 2016 draft and the home team in this series has won and covered six straight (Miami's 26-10 victory in 2003, originally scheduled for San Diego, having been moved to Arizona because of wildfires in southern California).

PHILADELPHIA 28 (+3 1/2), Arizona 27 - One of the first warning signs of neurofibromatosis - the disease from which the eponymous character in The Elephant Man suffered - is cafe-au-lait spots on the skin. Could the close calls, both at home, by the Cardinals against Blaine Gabbert and Mike Zimmer, who is 1-10 against over-.500 teams, in two of their last three games, be the cafe-au-lait spots of having peaked too early? Arizona is also 4-18 straight up since 2000 as a visitor in cold weather - and that cold weather will be made even colder by the game having been flexed into prime time. Home team has also won seven of the last eight.


MONDAY NIGHT

NEW ORLEANS
34, Detroit 21 (+3) - This game would probably have been flexed if the NFL's contract with the networks allowed it, as it does with the Sunday night games - but the Saints can salvage a .500 season by winning their last three games, starting with this one over a team they have covered five in a row against. But will it be enough to save Sean Payton from a pink slip?


BEST BETS: NEW ENGLAND, GREEN BAY, NEW ORLEANS


Note:
Since there is no line on the Houston at Indianapolis game due to the possible return of Colts QB Andrew Luck, no pick could be made on this game.

Last edited by Anthony; 12-18-2015 at 02:00 PM.
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