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Old 12-19-2002, 09:36 AM   #1
Brad O.
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Exclamation Vick is overrated

Coming into this season, I thought there was too much hype for Mike Vick. Then he went out and justified it and at least one person who posts here criticized me for giving him too much credit, too soon. Now the media adore him and the hype has gotten out of control again.

Statistics can be misleading, especially for someone like Vick who has below-average teammates on offense, but here are some numbers to chew on for the 2002 season, through Week 15:

NFL Rank (minimum 7 games, 100 att)
..........comp....yds....td....td/int diff
Vick
.....25.........21....t-22.......13

..........cmp%....yd/att....rating
Vick
.....t-27........t-17........t-19

..........total yd....total td....winning pct
Vick
......14............13..............12

Vick's passing production is in the bottom half of the league, his efficiency is below-average, and his total numbers are solid but not spectacular. If we assume these statistics tell us something useful, it looks like Vick is average at best.

I'll be the first to admit that such a perception would be incorrect, but, IMO, this makes it hard to argue Vick for MVP. Especially since -- from a statistical standpoint -- Rich Gannon is having one of the finest seasons ever. Make allowances for style of play and supporting cast and I think it's still tough to argue that Vick is one of the top 5 QBs in the league this season.

Also, a neat statistic: right now Priest Holmes has as many rushing TDs as Vick does rushing and passing TDs. Throw in Priest's 3 receiving touchdowns and the only players with more total TDs are Brooks, Brady, Gannon, Manning, Favre, and Culpepper.

How can you take Vick ahead of Holmes? And don't give me playoffs, because Vick plays with a good defense and Holmes works with the worst in the league. It's a farce that anyone other than Gannon, Holmes, and Marvin Harrison is even being mentioned for MVP at this point.
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Old 12-19-2002, 10:39 AM   #2
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While I'm hardly one to be dismissive of statistics, one must admit that quarterbacks like Vick and Donovan McNabb do present special problems, in that what they do running the ball isn't recognized at all in the "official" stats. In Vick's case, he has carried the ball 98 times for 717 yards and has scored eight touchdowns rushing. Under the "Quarterback Rating Formula" I devised last summer, Vick's rating is 86.3, compared to his official, league-recognized "Passer Rating" of 83.2.
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Old 12-19-2002, 02:54 PM   #3
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Vick also does his damage against bad teams like Carolina, Minnesota, and others. In 2 showcase games against Tampa, where was his intangible running ability.....he left it at home both days. You can't have terrible outings against quality a oppenent and expect to be the MVP. Vick has also taken advantage of the Saints defense....which almost every team in the NFL has been able to do.

Vick does have running stats, but lets look at who he is running on. Holmes on the other hand has remained consistent throughout, even in the big games and against decent defenses. Harrison has to be mentioned for MVP due to his play and the record he broke last weekend. Vick would have won the MVP if he would have just played well against Tampa one time, but he didn't....so I think he is gonna have to wait till next year's hype to win the MVP.

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Old 12-20-2002, 01:47 PM   #4
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I also think Vick is overrated. He's had some spectacular moments and others that are not so spectacular. You can't discount all of his bad passes or poor decisions because of a few awe-inspiring plays. That said, I think you have to give him more credit because of the lack of quality weapons he has around him. They need to seriously draft some receivers in the draft. Also going in his benefit is the lack of INTs Vick throws ... so he is making smart passes for the most part.
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Old 12-20-2002, 07:16 PM   #5
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only reason why i think he is overrated is because analysts say that he's the mvp of the league, which he's not, although those talks have died down. in terms of ability, he has one of the strongest and accurate arms in the league, the only problem i see with him, is his decision making skills, or lack there of...once he learns defenses, he'll be a real strong force to be reckoned with.
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Old 12-20-2002, 08:31 PM   #6
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While i do thing vick is a little overrated i can understand why so many people can build up so much hype on this guy because it is scarry to think of what he is going to be like when he actually matures as a qb in the next few years. However, as of now i would think that somebody of, lets say, McNabb's stature is currently better right now just because he has more experience and makes more of the right decisions. However, vick does have the potential to be better than McNabb in the years ahead but that has yet to be seen... and its also yet to be seen how much better McNabb will get.
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Old 12-23-2002, 10:57 PM   #7
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Truly; does it matter what the stats are? Vick brings the Falcons a player who can create so much. He can make defenses revolve around his running and then he can drop a few passes.(vice versa also) Vick brings so much to the table; no matter what his stats are; he brings WINS and that is what matters and that is why he gets so much hype.
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Old 12-24-2002, 02:16 AM   #8
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You know stats mean a lot to me, but with Vick the stats have to be adjusted somehow. Vick is totally different from any other quarterback I've seen in the NFL today. Vick still has a lot to learn in the passing department, but he is so exciting and unpredicatable to watch. I would pay to see him play. Anything is possible with him at the helm. That you cannot put into a stat.
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Old 12-24-2002, 02:20 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally posted by bama4256
You know stats mean a lot to me, but with Vick the stats have to be adjusted somehow. Vick is totally different from any other quarterback I've seen in the NFL today. Vick still has a lot to learn in the passing department, but he is so exciting and unpredicatable to watch. I would pay to see him play. Anything is possible with him at the helm. That you cannot put into a stat.
True that. I haven't been to one of the Falcons game yet where he has played; but I certainly am looking forward to going to one next season. When I get older I defintley want to get Season tickets and passes.
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Old 12-24-2002, 08:59 PM   #10
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Of course Vick's stats don't tell the whole story, but they ARE relevant on some level. I don't feel like researching the updated numbers, but when I posted earlier, Vick's total yardage -- that's running and passing yards -- barely put him in the top half of the league. Ditto total touchdowns. His winning percentage was 12th, and even if the Falcons win their last game, they'll finish 10-5-1, which is good but not exceptional. The Falcons went 7-9 last year with Chris Chandler and without Wade Phillips' defense or Warrick Dunn. San Diego had that big a turnaround with Drew Brees, and so did Buffalo with Drew Bledsoe.

In 1990, Randall Cunningham threw for 3466 yards and rushed for 942. He threw 30 TD passes and ran for 5 more. His passer rating was 91.6 and the Eagles went 10-6 and made the playoffs.
The Associated Press All-Pro quarterbacks that year were Joe Montana and Warren Moon. Montana was MVP and Moon won Offensive Player of the Year.

This year, through 15 games, Vick has thrown for 2696 yards and rushed for 739. He's thrown 15 TD passes and run for 8 more. His passer rating is 83.8 and the Falcons are 9-5-1.

In clearer format, that's:

.................Pass Yds......Rush Yds.......Total Yds
Cunningham...3466............942..............4408
Vick.............2696............739..............3435

.................Pass TD....INT.....Diff........Total TD
Cunningham...30..........13.......+17..........35
Vick.............15..........7..........+8...........23

Granted, Vick has one game left. But I don't think he's going to gain 1000 yards, score 9 or 12 touchdowns, and raise his passer rating by 7.8. And of course, Cunningham's snub a decade ago doesn't mean Vick shouldn't win now. But Rich Gannon, Priest Holmes, and Marvin Harrison are making history! Vick is just having a nice season.

.................Pass Yds......Rush Yds.......Total Yds
Gannon.........4610............152..............4762
Vick.............2696............739..............3435

.................Pass TD....INT.....Diff........Total TD
Gannon.........25..........10.......+15..........28
Vick.............15..........7..........+8...........23

Oh, and Gannon's passer rating is 97.5 and his team has clinched the AFC West.

This link compares Vick -- statistically -- with some other great quarterbacks. The stats are only through week 12, but the Falcons have gone 1-2 since then, so Vick's not missing a whole lot.

Numbers don't tell the whole story, but even a cursory glance at Vick's makes it obvious that he hasn't had an MVP season. He's had a brilliant SportsCenter season, though. The problem is that when he's not making those spectacular plays -- he IS amazing to watch, Keith -- he's not doing much of anything. Plus, he's hit a slump at a time when his team had a chance to clinch the postseason.

He's young, and this is his first year as a starter. Give the kid some time to grow into a player of Gannon or Cunningham's stature, and don't give me this silliness about Vick being MVP when so many other players are having such incredible seasons. The league has never seen someone with Vick's ability, but it has seen a year like this. Cunningham did it in 1990, Steve Young could do it, and Gannon and Daunte Culpepper did it in 2000. Plus Steve McNair's not that far behind this year. Speaking of this year, there's this guy named Gannon...
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Old 12-24-2002, 09:18 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally posted by Brad O.
Of course Vick's stats don't tell the whole story, but they ARE relevant on some level. I don't feel like researching the updated numbers, but when I posted earlier, Vick's total yardage -- that's running and passing yards -- barely put him in the top half of the league. Ditto total touchdowns. His winning percentage was 12th, and even if the Falcons win their last game, they'll finish 10-5-1, which is good but not exceptional. The Falcons went 7-9 last year with Chris Chandler and without Wade Phillips' defense or Warrick Dunn. San Diego had that big a turnaround with Drew Brees, and so did Buffalo with Drew Bledsoe.

In 1990, Randall Cunningham threw for 3466 yards and rushed for 942. He threw 30 TD passes and ran for 5 more. His passer rating was 91.6 and the Eagles went 10-6 and made the playoffs.
The Associated Press All-Pro quarterbacks that year were Joe Montana and Warren Moon. Montana was MVP and Moon won Offensive Player of the Year.

This year, through 15 games, Vick has thrown for 2696 yards and rushed for 739. He's thrown 15 TD passes and run for 8 more. His passer rating is 83.8 and the Falcons are 9-5-1.

In clearer format, that's:

.................Pass Yds......Rush Yds.......Total Yds
Cunningham...3466............942..............4408
Vick.............2696............739..............3435

.................Pass TD....INT.....Diff........Total TD
Cunningham...30..........13.......+17..........35
Vick.............15..........7..........+8...........23

Granted, Vick has one game left. But I don't think he's going to gain 1000 yards, score 9 or 12 touchdowns, and raise his passer rating by 7.8. And of course, Cunningham's snub a decade ago doesn't mean Vick shouldn't win now. But Rich Gannon, Priest Holmes, and Marvin Harrison are making history! Vick is just having a nice season.

.................Pass Yds......Rush Yds.......Total Yds
Gannon.........4610............152..............4762
Vick.............2696............739..............3435

.................Pass TD....INT.....Diff........Total TD
Gannon.........25..........10.......+15..........28
Vick.............15..........7..........+8...........23

Oh, and Gannon's passer rating is 97.5 and his team has clinched the AFC West.

This link compares Vick -- statistically -- with some other great quarterbacks. The stats are only through week 12, but the Falcons have gone 1-2 since then, so Vick's not missing a whole lot.

Numbers don't tell the whole story, but even a cursory glance at Vick's makes it obvious that he hasn't had an MVP season. He's had a brilliant SportsCenter season, though. The problem is that when he's not making those spectacular plays -- he IS amazing to watch, Keith -- he's not doing much of anything. Plus, he's hit a slump at a time when his team had a chance to clinch the postseason.

He's young, and this is his first year as a starter. Give the kid some time to grow into a player of Gannon or Cunningham's stature, and don't give me this silliness about Vick being MVP when so many other players are having such incredible seasons. The league has never seen someone with Vick's ability, but it has seen a year like this. Cunningham did it in 1990, Steve Young could do it, and Gannon and Daunte Culpepper did it in 2000. Plus Steve McNair's not that far behind this year. Speaking of this year, there's this guy named Gannon...
Ok; you are talking about QB's and how there stats make their teams better. Look who Gannon has behind him. He has Rice; Brown; Garner; Romaniski; Woodson; and a whole lot of other good people. Do the Falcons have any good people like that? NO! The Falcons are doing it without big time players like Jerry Rice or Tim Brown. Stats do not matter. There's only ONE stat that matters and that is the stat of records.
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Old 12-25-2002, 12:38 AM   #12
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Well, in the link I posted, I specifically said: "The whole story in this case would note that Gannon and Warner had exceptional supporting casts and that Vick's is pathetic." You're right -- Gannon has a lot more to work with, but not 1,327 yards, +7 td/int, and 15 passer rating points. Vick dazzles us with his speed, agility, and arm strength; but Gannon is having one of the best seasons in league history.

And last time I checked, Vick was 8-5-1 as a starter this year. That puts him behind Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb, Jeff Garcia, Brad Johnson, Brian Griese, Peyton Manning, Jay Fiedler, Rich Gannon, Tommy Maddox, and Steve McNair. So if "There's only ONE stat that matters and that is the stat of records", Vick seems to rank eleventh.

And if you want improvement from last year, counting all week 17 contests as a win, the Falcons are +3 with Vick and Doug Johnson. Carolina is +5.5 with Rodney Peete and co. Buffalo is +4.5 with Drew Bledsoe. And San Diego is +3.5 with Drew Brees. By that standard, Vick ranks fourth.

I'm not saying he isn't a great player: he clearly is, he will probably continue to improve immensely, and he's done a lot for the Falcons this year. I voted for Vick for the Pro Bowl, I like watching him play, and -- for the last time -- I know that stats don't tell the whole story. But you can't throw them out the window and pretend they aren't revealing, because they do have some relevance. And when you look at Vick's stats, you see an average passer who is an exceptional runner. With all the players doing legendary things this season, Vick shouldn't be more than a tiny blip on the MVP Radar.

One last thing:
Quote:
Do the Falcons have any good people like that? NO!
Well, not like Oakland, but they do have some nice players: Keith Brooking, Patrick Kerney, Bob Christian, Alge Crumpler, Allan Rossum, Jay Feely, and even Brian Finneran and Warrick Dunn all come to mind. The Falcons wouldn't be .500 without that sturdy defense, and Vick has some talented role-players surrounding him on offense.
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Old 12-26-2002, 05:14 PM   #13
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Brad, I'm with you 99%. That Vick's running ability makes him a different beast can't be denied, and that he has incredible speed that shows up so well on television is obvious.

The guy was only a very average QB in college, and could prove to continue to be in the pros. His speed and running ability, while very useful now, is also very much what keeps him in jeopardy. He has poor defensive-reading skills, and runs before he throws the stupid pass, which is good, but doesn't make him a great QB. If I had blazing speed, wasn't sure where the defensive holes were, and my pocket even threatened to break down, I'd run like hell, too. That doesn't mean I'd be a good QB.

The biggest problem with Vick is that his weaknesses are so glaringly obvious. Confuse him with scheme and bring speed on the edges. Pittsburgh was incredibly effective against him for 3 quarters, before they decided to play the "blitz 1st and ten, blitz 2nd and 17, cover on 3rd and 24" technique in the 4th quarter. The zone coverages on 3rd and long allowed Vick to run around against a 3 man rush, finding someone to throw to on a number of occasions, and allowing him to plain take off on a couple of others.

Tampa has Rice and Brooks threatening the edges with comparable speed, and Sapp with speed and strength that Olines can't contend with, not to mention a great secondary against mediocre receivers.

The point: he breaks down against speed. More to the point, his O line breaks down under a speed rush, and he is victimized by the bad pass or a sack.

I think he has a long way to come before he can garner Pro Bowl votes en masse as a QB.
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Old 12-26-2002, 05:32 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally posted by Brad O.


Well, not like Oakland, but they do have some nice players: Keith Brooking, Patrick Kerney, Bob Christian, Alge Crumpler, Allan Rossum, Jay Feely, and even Brian Finneran and Warrick Dunn all come to mind. The Falcons wouldn't be .500 without that sturdy defense, and Vick has some talented role-players surrounding him on offense.
Those people are nowhere near people like Rice, Brown, and Garner.
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Old 12-30-2002, 11:14 AM   #15
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I think you may be reading a little too much into statistics. Dropped passes count against the QB and not the WR, see Brian Finneran, as well as bad play calling. For example, Vick is clearly the best player on the field yesterday against the Browns and Reeves calls three straight running plays to Warrick Dunn. What has he done, well, he makes the game an 11 on 10 and takes the ball out of Vicks hands. Roll him out on a naked or regular bootleg, or shoot, run the option with him with Dunn, just give him a chance.

Is he the MVP for the league, no, for his team, yes. He will be MVP of the league, eventually, if Reeves uses him correctly.
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