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Old 11-25-2003, 10:25 PM   #1
MountaineerDave
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Default Reviewing my preseason picks

Not that I published any of them, but I was glancing over the notebook I kept them in over the weekend, and was surprised by how resoundingly wrong I was in spots, and how I was spot on in several calls, without remembering why I'd picked as I did...

Conference USA

Okay, so TCU let me down in Hattiesburg. I had them 12-0, C-USA champs. Real misses in C-USA were Houston, who's bowl-bound (I had them losing to Army, for cryin' out loud), and ECU, who I had finishing around .500. If only...

Mine: TCU, Southern Miss, Louisville, Cincinnati, South Florida, East Carolina, Tulane, UAB, Memphis, Army, Houston

Reality: Southern Miss, TCU, Memphis, Louisville, South Florida, UAB, Houston, Tulane, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Army

Mountain West

I did pretty well here. Aside from picking Air Force to finish #2 (they finished #4), I did okay with the top half of the conference. I had Utah winning it (Urban Meyer seems a lock to grab a big-time opening in the next year or two... Mississippi State?), and they did. New Mexico finished ahead of Colorado State, as I predicted, just a step higher than I expected. I had the bottom of the conference pretty well jumbled up.

Mine: Utah, Air Force, New Mexico, Colorado St, BYU, UNLV, Wyoming, San Diego St

Reality: Utah, New Mexico, Colorado St, Air Force, San Diego St, BYU, Wyoming, UNLV

Western Athletic

Not quite sure why I abandoned the blue-turfed Broncos. The Wolfpack in Nevada underachieved severely; I don't have the energy to figure out why. Hawaii still has a chance to steal a portion of the title, if Boise drops their games against the Wolfpack AND Hawaii. Seems unlikely. Tulsa's going to finish in a tie for second, more than likely, and that comes as a surprise to me.

Mine: Nevada, Hawaii, Fresno St, Boise St, San Jose St, La Tech, Tulsa, UTEP, Rice, SMU
Reality (likely): Boise St, Tulsa, Fresno St, Hawaii, Nevada, La Tech, Rice, San Jose St, UTEP, SMU

Mid-American
There didn't seem a ton of mystery in the MAC. It looked like Marshall would be riding in the backseat, and they were. The bottom-feeders are pretty predictable. I missed badly on UCF, but otherwise, fair goin...

My East: Miami,UCF, Marshall, Akron, Ohio, KentBuffalo

Real East: Miami, Marshall, Akron, Kent, UCF, Ohio, Buffalo

My West: Bowling Green, NIU, Toledo, Ball St, WMU, CMU, EMU

Real East (likely): Bowling Green, Toledo, NIU, WMU, Ball st, EMU, CMU

Sun Belt

Uh, yeah. And I had them losing all losing all of their division 1-A non- conference games...

Mine: UNT, MTSU, NMSU, ASU, ULL, USU, ULM, Idaho

Reality: UNT, ULL, ASU, MTSU, USU, Idaho, NMSU, ULM

Independents

Notre Dame can win out and match my predictions for them PRECISELY. I called these wins for UND:
Wazzu, Pitt, Navy, BYU, Stanford, Syracuse. Getting those final two wins for ND will be difficult, but if they do, I can honestly say I called it. Of course, I have no documentation of this, aside from my notebook that I could easily have written down five minutes ago... Trust me. I called. Unfortunately for my predictive talents being valuable, they're gonna get crushed by SU.

I had Troy State finishing 2-10. They went 6-6. So...

I actually called for a 7-5 Navy. It can still happen. Army could beat 'em. But, prolly not.

I included UConn with the Big East; had them 8-4. 9-3. The difference? Thought Wake'd take 'em. I was wrong.

Big East
I had unreasonably high expectations for BC. Dunno why. Anyway...

Mine: Miami, BC, WVU, Pitt, VT, Syracuse, Temple, Rutgers

Reality (likely, or, at least, I'm hoping): Pitt, WVU, Miami, VT, Syracuse, BC, Rutgers, Temple

Did anyone realize that heading into this week's matchup v Temple that the Mountaineers have only two losses in conference over the last two seasons. Both losses came to Miami. With a Pitt win over Miami, WVU will finish #2 in the conference for the second straight season, and looks like headed for a rematch with the Terps in the Gator Bowl.

Pac 10

Okay. It's not my fault. No one told us at the beginning of the year that Leinart would be better than Palmer, nor that Walter would suck ass. No one told me, anyway, and that's my excuse.

Mine: Arizona St, Washington, Oregon St, SC, UCLA, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, Wazzu, Arizona

Reality: SC, Wazzu, Oregon, Cal, Oregon St, UCLA, Washington, Stanford, Arizona St, Arizona

Big 10

I entered the season down on the Buckeyes, high on Illinois, and certain that Northwestern was the league's worst. I was pretty far off, but when you go back and look at it, a point here, a point there... my standings are... still way off.

Mine: Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Purdue, Penn St, Ohio St, Minnesota, Michigan St, Iowa, IndianaNorthwestern

Reality: Michigan, Ohio St, Purdue, Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan St, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Penn St, Indiana, Illinois

ACC
Okay, so I expected the 'Noles to continue to slip. And they did, just not as far as I thought...

Mine: Maryland, NC St, Florida St, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Clemson, UNC, Wake, Duke

Reality: Florida St, Maryland, Clemson, NC St, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Wake, Duke, UNC

Big 12
Alright! I called it! OU undefeated!! Oh, so did 98% of other college football fans... oh, well...

My North: Kansas St, Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa St, Kansas

Real North: Kansas St, Nebraska, Missouri, Colorado, Kansas, Iowa St

My South: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas, Ok St, Texas Tech,Baylor

Real South: Oklahoma, Texas, Ok St, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Baylor

SEC

At least you can count on these immutable truths: Vandy will always come in last. Miss St is pretty miserable, too. Auburn will never finish first with Tuberville in charge, no matter how the top of the East looks, you can count on this bottom three, in this order: SC, UK, Vandy. Oh, hell...

My East: Florida, Tennessee, Georgia,South Carolina,Vandy, Kentucky

Real East (I think, though I'm not sure why): Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina, Vandy, Kentucky

My West LSUAuburn, MississippiArkansas, Alabama, Mississippi St

That took too damn long. Oh, well.

How'd everyone else do?

Dave

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Old 11-25-2003, 11:26 PM   #2
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I don't have the time to go thru all of them but I will pick out the main ones.

Big 10: Had UM with one defeat against OSU, Purdue or Iowa but had OSU losing 2 against Wisconsin and a team to be named later. UM was right pick. If only we didn't slump on the road.......

ND: Had them much higher than what they did. Good pick on them going totally bust this year.

ACC: NCState was my choice. FSU second followed by Maryland.

PAC 10: Hit this one pretty good. USC I had tops with WSU 2nd and then Washington.

SEC: Tennessee and Auburn. So much for that.

BIG 12: OU and CU.

BIG EAST: Pitt was my surprise of the season.......

All in all so-so picks.
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Old 11-26-2003, 12:06 AM   #3
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Mine sucked, I had Michigan in the Big Ten and USC in the Pac Ten, so those were right. Obviously everyone knows I was off about the SEC, and I was wrong about Maryland winning the ACC. College football is so tough to figure out, sometimes, teams with great players don't get going until it is too late, like Maryland and Michigan, Michigan could be undefeated if they would have just showed up against Oregon and Iowa, and Maryland could have very easily won the ACC if they'd not have started out so bad.
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Old 11-26-2003, 12:19 AM   #4
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Big 10...Well, I had Michigan winning the Big 10 with 1 loss, but beating Ohio State at the end of the season for the Big 10 title. I also thought OSU would go 11-1 with their only loss to Michigan at the end of the year.

SEC...I bought into the Auburn hype before the season and I selected them as SEC conference champs. I thought Tennessee would win the East, and well, they are tied for top spot. I am impressed with Florida doing as well as they have this year considering how young they are in spots, but I picked them to go 8-4 before season. Ole Miss was a huge surprise here as well as LSU for me.

ACC...I thought FSU would win the conference, but I had no idea NC State would have the so-so season they are having. I also thought Virginia would play much better than they have this season.

Big East....I had Miami in a landslide in this conference. I would have ranked WVU prolly middle of pack before season started, and I would be way off there.

Big 12....Ok, this is where I really made a huge mistake, as I picked Texas to win the Big 12 and finally beat OU..lol. I thought it would be K State vs. Texas in Big 12 title game, a rematch of their regular season matchup.

Pac 10....I thought it was between Arizona State and USC, but Washington State playing as well as they did was something else.

Conference USA....I picked Southern Miss to win, and Memphis who I ranked towards the middle or end of the conference panned out very nicely.

Finally, in my National title game I had Miami vs. Texas, which was a major push, and I was way off. Both teams with 2 losses and maybe more by season's end.

Joey
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Old 11-29-2003, 10:27 PM   #5
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All I know is I thought Va Tech would win more than 8 games.....
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Old 12-02-2003, 03:03 PM   #6
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That's funny, J. I had them winning six...
(Wasn't expecting the win over Miami or Texas A&M, who was MUCH worse than I thought they'd be)

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