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Old 12-14-2016, 09:19 AM   #1
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Cool Anthony's Week 15 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 9-7. Season totals: 93-92-6, Pct. .503. Best Bets: 21-17-1, Pct. .551.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.


41, Los Angeles 13 (+14) - The Rams, who are 6-13-3 against the spread on road carpets in this decade, have fired Jeff "Six Winning Seasons In 22 Years" Fisher - but since they didn't fire any of the players while they were at it I still like the Seahawks, especially on favorite-friendly Thursday night.


17 (+3), Miami 0 - Ryan Tannehill's knee injury turned out not to be catastrophic, but he will still miss this game - and we saw this movie two weeks ago, with Tannehill: The Dolphins on artificial turf - now eight straight losses, 1-7 against the spread - and in cold weather - 18-40 straight up, 24-33-1 against the spread since 1995 - and this game is at night, making it colder. Rumors of Todd Bowles' imminent firing may prove exaggerated - which he can make even more exaggerated with a strong finish to this disappointing season, largely brought about by their having to take the league's biggest jump in strength of schedule. And not for nothing, but Bryce Petty statistically outperformed Jameis Winston in every department in their respective senior years in college. So maybe the Jets have found their quarterback of the future after all?


23, Detroit 16 (+4) - There is always the possibility of a letdown from the Giants after completing their improbable sweep of Dallas and while the Lions have covered four in a row against the Giants on the road, only one of them was in November or later, and that was prior to 2001 (by one year), since which Detroit is 4-23 straight up and 11-15-1 against the line as a visitor in cold weather, and Matthew Stafford will be playing with a dislocated finger - but how well?

BUFFALO 27, Cleveland 7 (+10 1/2) - One gets the distinct idea that the winless Browns had their chance last week, at home, facing a Bengals team severely compromised by injuries - and even covering the spread is problematic in this spot given Cleveland's 7-14-1 spread record on artificial turf since 2012.

Pittsburgh 16, CINCINNATI 14 (+3 1/2) - Like Todd Bowles, Marvin Lewis might survive with a late rally - and the Steelers could very well be looking ahead to Christmas Day's (the body of the Week 16 schedule will be played on Saturday, Christmas Eve) likely winner-take-all showdown against Baltimore in the AFC North. The always tempting three-and-and-a-half-point number is well worth taking - and A.J. Green might be back.

MINNESOTA 21, Indianapolis 20 (+4) - Another small underdog who may very well cover without winning outright: Colts have beaten the Vikings four in a row, with the last three having been decided by a combined eight points. And Sam Bradford is just about the last quarterback one would want on a team in the middle of a playoff race.

BALTIMORE 30, Philadelphia 7 (+6) - Baltimore's secondary, whose 10.73 yards per completion allowed ranks eighth in the league, should have no trouble at all facing the 29th-ranked Eagles receivers and their 10.14-yard average. Philadelphia, furthermore, has not covered against The Modell Franchise (Cleveland 1.0/Baltimore) since 1991 (0-4-1 against the spread) and is 0-5 both ways under Doug Pederson as a visitor on the carpet.

Green Bay 27, CHICAGO 17 (+6 1/2) - All the Packers need is one slip-up by the Lions - which they will get either this week, or next week, when Detroit is at Dallas - and they will be in control of their own destiny to regain their rightful place atop the NFC North, from which they were knocked last year. And the Bears are 0 for the '10s (0 for 6 specifically), both ways, at home against Green Bay.

HOUSTON 20, Jacksonville 9 (+6) - How Gus Bradley keeps his job is beyond me - and $72 million for 9.69 yards per completion or not, it looks as if Brock Osweiler is going to deliver another AFC South title for the Texans, who have beaten the Jags five in a row (4-1 against the spread) and 10 of the last 12 (8-4 against the spread) - and in case the unusually cold weather that is in the long-range forecast dictates the closure of the retractable roof, Jacksonville has lost seven straight inside NFL domes by a combined 102 points.

KANSAS CITY 16, Tennessee 13 (+6) - The Titans snapped their six-game cold-weather losing streak three weeks ago, and the home team's eight-game no-cover streak in Chiefs games went by the boards last Thursday night, but the home team in this series retains its streaks - 1-5 straight up in the last six, 1-6 against the spread in the last seven. And like the matchup of the Tennessee running game against a KC run defense that is 27th in the league; Denver's was 24th going into last week's game, and is now 29th after the Titans ground out 180 rushing yards against it in a hard-fought victory. This will be another tough game that could go either way (and the Chiefs clinch a playoff spot if it goes theirs), therefore taking the points is the thing to do.

ATLANTA 45, San Francisco 14 (+13) - Did this year's 49ers ever come along at the wrong time: They might go 1-15 and still not get the top draft pick! But first things first: They have lost seven in a row on rugs (with one cover), and have been outscored 129-50 while losing four straight indoors.

ARIZONA 34, New Orleans 17 (+3) - Our best bet. The home team in the series has won and covered six in a row by a combined 202 to 104, with five of them by double digits - and the league-leading Arizona defense won't be intimidated by the league-leading but unbalanced New Orleans offense (first overall and in passing, 18th in rushing) at home.

DENVER 24 (+3), New England 20 - Since their Week 9 bye, the Patriots are 1-4 against the spread, and the home team in this series has won and covered seven in a row, including three outright upsets as home underdogs, two of them by, and at, Denver. And maybe the quarterback mismatch is not as big as one would think; otherwise, why was last week's Broncos game off the board in most places until Saturday because Trevor Siemian was questionable?

Oakland 31, SAN DIEGO 24 (+3) - Disappointing though last Thursday night's loss in frigid Kansas City was, the Raiders can still clinch their first playoff appearance since 2002 with a win here. With that mind, Oakland would appear to be a bargain at this number.

DALLAS 21, Tampa Bay 17 (+7) - The Buccaneers are a peccant 1-10 straight up lifetime in God's Country, but they are a more reasonable 4-7 against the spread - and like New England, the Cowboys are having a sudden attack of non-cover-itis, dropping their last three to the spread - and the decision-makers in these matters would not have flexed this game into prime time if they thought that there was any chance that the game would not be competitive.


WASHINGTON 24, Carolina 23 (+4 1/2) - The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name needs only the most minimal help to get in the playoffs providing they win out - but the underdog has covered in all six of the previous Carolina at Washington games. plus the Panthers have beaten Washington four in a row. A very dangerous game in which the points must be taken.


Last edited by Anthony; 12-14-2016 at 12:25 PM.
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