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Old 11-26-2019, 11:29 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 13 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 6-8. Season totals: 76-96-4, Pct. .443. Best Bets: 18-17-1, Pct. .514.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THANKSGIVING DAY

Chicago
17, DETROIT 0 (+2 1/2) - Mitchell Trubisky may be everybody's bust but even on his worst day he towers over Jeff Driskel on Driskel's best day, and the Bears make their belated 2019 debut on both artificial turf and indoors in this spot after having gone 3-1 both ways on rugs and 3-0 outright and 2-1 pointwise in domes in 2018.

DALLAS 14, Buffalo 10 (+7) - The Bills may be 9-23 straight up and 12-20 against the line since 1999 inside NFL domes, but Dallas is 0-4 against over-.500 teams this year - and a touchdown is a big difference to get to split. Take the points.

ATLANTA 27 (+5 1/2), New Orleans 24 - Since 2016, teams losing the first meeting to a division rival at home have a .269 winning percentage in the rematches on the road (18-50); all other road teams over the same period are .440 (383-488-5). And the Saints could very well get caught with their pants down, looking ahead to next week's biggie at home against San Francisco.


SUNDAY

Green Bay 24, N.Y. GIANTS 20 (+6 1/2) - Only one turnover by the Giants last week, a spread cover by the Giants last week - and the home team has won the last four meetings by a combined 126-52. Take the points.

CINCINNATI 17 (+3 1/2), N.Y. Jets 16 - Zac Taylor has swallowed his pride and gone back to Andy Dalton at quarterback - and if you missed the Jets' wedding last week, you may want to miss the funeral this week.

PITTSBURGH 28 (P), Cleveland 14 - The benching of Mason Rudolph has let much of the emotional air out of this game, but a loss here gives Cleveland 2.0 a 16-game losing streak at Heinz Field, matching Cleveland 1.0's losing streak in their first 16 games at Three Rivers Stadium. Cleveland 2.0 has also never - repeat, never - swept Pittsburgh.

JACKSONVILLE 29, Tampa Bay 16 (+1 1/2) - The Bucs have never won or covered in Jacksonville, going 0-3 both ways there by a combined 87-48 - hence the predicted final score of 29-16.

CAROLINA 20, Washington 13 (+10) - Kyle Allen isn't 10 points better than Akron! Take the points.

Philadelphia 21, MIAMI 16 (+9) - In 1969, the Pittsburgh Pirates allowed two runs in 18 innings in a doubleheader against that year's Miracle Mets - and lost both games; and Steve Carlton, then playing for the Cardinals, struck out 19 Mets in a game and still lost. This year's Eagles defense must know what that feels like: They have held all of their last four opponents to 17 points or less and allowed 266 yards per game to the quartet, whose combined record is 32-12 - and only split the four games. The view from here says take the points - but Jordan Matthews was cut (again!) on Monday, and the Eagles could be looking for a big splash, as in a big splash with speed. So you might want to wait until the last minute before going to the proverbial window.

INDIANAPOLIS 24, Tennessee 13 (+3) - Another case of a team already having beaten a division rival on the road, and now getting that same rival at home - and dating back to 2003 Indianapolis is 26-6 straight up and 22-10 against the line versus Tennessee, which is 7-15 both ways since 2013 as a visitor on the carpet.

BALTIMORE 28, San Francisco 9 (+4 1/2) - That was hardly a bunch of doormats that the Ravens crushed on Monday night - and crushed is what has been happening to warm-weather and indoor teams playing in cold weather so far this season, as in 2-10 straight up and 3-9 against the spread, and the 49ers have not won or covered against Team Modell on the road since 1984 (0-3 both ways by a combined 83-25). And with New England having three loseable games on paper remaining, the road to Super Bowl LIV from the AFC could go through M&T Bank Stadium.

KANSAS CITY 35, Oakland 13 (+10) - Still another instance of a team hosting a team they have already beaten on the road - and Oakland is 1-16 straight up and 4-12-1 against the line since 2012 as a visitor in cold weather.

L.A. Rams 33, ARIZONA 9 (+3) - It's easy to overreact to what we saw on Monday night - but it's a lot harder to overreact to the fact that the Rams have won and covered four straight over the Cards by a combined 130-25.

DENVER 16 (+1), L.A. Chargers 13 - This week is a double embarrassment of riches: Rematch number four between a team that won the first meeting on the road and seeks a sweep at home, and cold weather game number three.

New England 19, HOUSTON 10 (+4) - The Patriots are 10-1 straight up and 7-3-1 against the spread lifetime vs. the Texans, and are 23-7 straight up and 19-9-2 against the spread since 2001 inside NFL domes - and have zero margin for error if they want to stay at home throughout the playoffs in the AFC.


MONDAY NIGHT

SEATTLE
28, Minnesota 13 (+2 1/2) - Something had to give when Minnesota won at Dallas three weeks ago, in that Kirk Cousins had struggled mightily against over-.500 teams throughout his career - but then again, at least this year, so have the Cowboys. And the Vikings have been outscored 140-63 while losing five straight to Seattle - and are 32-81-2 straight up and 46-65-4 against the spread outdoors since 2001.


BEST BETS: INDIANAPOLIS, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE

Last edited by Anthony; 11-28-2019 at 12:37 PM.
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